HODL vs. SMST

Last updated Jul 14, 2026

HODL (VanEck Bitcoin Trust) and SMST (Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - HODL is a Cryptocurrency fund tracking the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate - New York Variant, while SMST is a Inverse Equities fund actively managed by Defiance. HODL is passively managed, while SMST is actively managed. Over the past year, HODL returned -47.40% vs 240.03% for SMST. At a correlation of -0.78, they often move in opposite directions. HODL charges 0.25%/yr vs 1.29%/yr for SMST.

Performance

HODL vs. SMST - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF (SMST). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

The year-to-date returns for both investments are quite close, with HODL having a -28.87% return and SMST slightly higher at -27.96%.

HODL

• 1D: -2.71%
• 1M: -2.11%
• 6M: -31.95%
• YTD: -28.87%
• 1Y: -47.40%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

SMST

• 1D: 5.26%
• 1M: 44.38%
• 6M: -15.07%
• YTD: -27.96%
• 1Y: 240.03%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

HODL vs. SMST - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024
HODL VanEck Bitcoin Trust	-28.87%	-6.42%	57.03%
SMST Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF	-27.96%	-44.36%	-91.71%

Correlation

The correlation between HODL and SMST is -0.84, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.84
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Aug 21, 2024	-0.78

The correlation between HODL and SMST has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.84 to -0.78 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

HODL vs. SMST — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

HODL

HODL Risk / Return Rank: 1
HODL Sharpe Ratio Rank: 1
HODL Sortino Ratio Rank: 1
HODL Omega Ratio Rank: 1
HODL Calmar Ratio Rank: 1
HODL Martin Ratio Rank: 1

SMST

SMST Risk / Return Rank: 60
SMST Sharpe Ratio Rank: 62
SMST Sortino Ratio Rank: 63
SMST Omega Ratio Rank: 63
SMST Calmar Ratio Rank: 71
SMST Martin Ratio Rank: 43

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

HODL vs. SMST - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF (SMST). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	HODL	SMST	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-1.08	1.62	-2.70
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-1.65	2.33	-3.99
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.82	1.30	-0.48
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.89	2.83	-3.72
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.45	5.47	-6.93

HODL vs. SMST - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current HODL Sharpe Ratio is -1.08, which is lower than the SMST Sharpe Ratio of 1.62. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of HODL and SMST, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

HODL vs. SMST - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum HODL drawdown since its inception was -53.20%, smaller than the maximum SMST drawdown of -99.25%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for HODL and SMST.

Drawdown Indicators

	HODL	SMST	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-53.20%	-99.25%	+46.05%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-53.20%	-85.39%	+32.19%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-50.44%	-97.17%	+46.73%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-17.49%	-90.89%	+73.40%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	32.62%	44.09%	-11.47%

Volatility

HODL vs. SMST - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) is 11.45%, while Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF (SMST) has a volatility of 56.59%. This indicates that HODL experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than SMST based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	HODL	SMST	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	11.45%	56.59%	-45.14%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	34.72%	135.88%	-101.16%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	44.22%	149.23%	-105.01%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	49.65%	167.74%	-118.09%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	49.65%	167.74%	-118.09%

HODL vs. SMST - Expense Ratio Comparison

HODL has a 0.25% expense ratio, which is lower than SMST's 1.29% expense ratio.

Dividends

HODL vs. SMST - Dividend Comparison

Neither HODL nor SMST has paid dividends to shareholders.

Tickers have no history of dividend payments

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both HODL and SMST in my portfolio?

HODL and SMST have a correlation of -0.84, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, HODL or SMST?

SMST has higher volatility (56.59%) compared to HODL (11.45%). In terms of maximum drawdown, HODL dropped -53.20% vs SMST's -99.25%.

Which ETF is better, HODL or SMST?

On 1-year performance, SMST leads with 240.03% vs -47.40% for HODL. On fees, HODL is cheaper at 0.25% per year. On volatility, HODL has been the lower-risk option at 11.45%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, HODL or SMST?

Over the 1-year period, SMST has performed better with a 240.03% return vs -47.40%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, HODL or SMST?

HODL is cheaper with a 0.25% expense ratio, compared with 1.29% for SMST.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, HODL or SMST?

HODL and SMST have nearly identical dividend yields, around 0.00%.

What is the main difference between HODL and SMST?

HODL is categorized as Cryptocurrency, while SMST is Inverse Equities. They also come from different issuers: VanEck and Defiance. Their fees differ too: 0.25% for HODL and 1.29% for SMST.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

SMST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.62 vs -1.08), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.