AIBU vs. TMF

Last updated Jun 24, 2026

AIBU (Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bull 2X Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - AIBU is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the Solactive US AI & Big Data Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past year, AIBU returned 67.41% vs -2.80% for TMF. At a 0.06 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. AIBU charges 0.96%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.

Performance

AIBU vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bull 2X Shares (AIBU) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, AIBU achieves a 24.78% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -4.67% return.

AIBU

• 1D: -4.43%
• 1M: -3.16%
• YTD: 24.78%
• 6M: 21.08%
• 1Y: 67.41%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

TMF

• 1D: -0.62%
• 1M: 4.96%
• YTD: -4.67%
• 6M: -5.95%
• 1Y: -2.80%
• 3Y*: -21.07%
• 5Y*: -31.33%
• 10Y*: -16.87%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

AIBU vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024
AIBU Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bull 2X Shares	24.78%	42.25%	41.01%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-4.67%	-2.94%	-14.57%

Correlation

The correlation between AIBU and TMF is 0.16, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.16
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since May 15, 2024	0.06

The correlation between AIBU and TMF shifts across timeframes, from 0.06 (all time) to 0.16 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.

Return for Risk

AIBU vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

AIBU

AIBU Risk / Return Rank: 34
AIBU Sharpe Ratio Rank: 40
AIBU Sortino Ratio Rank: 38
AIBU Omega Ratio Rank: 37
AIBU Calmar Ratio Rank: 30
AIBU Martin Ratio Rank: 26

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 8
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 8

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

AIBU vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bull 2X Shares (AIBU) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	AIBU	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	1.35	-0.10	+1.45
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	1.84	0.05	+1.79
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.23	1.01	+0.23
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	1.39	-0.11	+1.50
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	3.34	-0.23	+3.57

AIBU vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current AIBU Sharpe Ratio is 1.35, which is higher than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of -0.10. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of AIBU and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

AIBU vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum AIBU drawdown since its inception was -51.17%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for AIBU and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	AIBU	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-51.17%	-92.89%	+41.72%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-48.71%	-26.51%	-22.20%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	—	-56.09%	—
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	—	-88.81%	—
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-92.89%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-19.38%	-92.11%	+72.73%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-13.79%	-43.76%	+29.97%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	20.26%	12.26%	+8.00%

Volatility

AIBU vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bull 2X Shares (AIBU) has a higher volatility of 21.15% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 6.50%. This indicates that AIBU's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	AIBU	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	21.15%	6.50%	+14.65%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	39.22%	19.35%	+19.87%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	50.36%	27.91%	+22.45%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	55.97%	46.59%	+9.38%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	55.97%	43.86%	+12.11%

AIBU vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison

AIBU has a 0.96% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.

Dividends

AIBU vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

AIBU's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 1.79%, less than TMF's 4.09% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
AIBU Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bull 2X Shares	1.79%	2.27%	1.33%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.09%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both AIBU and TMF in my portfolio?

AIBU and TMF have a correlation of 0.16, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, AIBU or TMF?

AIBU has higher volatility (21.15%) compared to TMF (6.50%). In terms of maximum drawdown, AIBU dropped -51.17% vs TMF's -92.89%.

Which ETF is better, AIBU or TMF?

On 1-year performance, AIBU leads with 67.41% vs -2.80% for TMF. On fees, AIBU is cheaper at 0.96% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 6.50%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, AIBU or TMF?

Over the 1-year period, AIBU has performed better with a 67.41% return vs -2.80%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, AIBU or TMF?

AIBU is cheaper with a 0.96% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, AIBU or TMF?

TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.09%, compared with 1.79% for AIBU.

What is the main difference between AIBU and TMF?

AIBU is categorized as Leveraged Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. AIBU tracks Solactive US AI & Big Data Index, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 0.96% for AIBU and 1.01% for TMF.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

AIBU currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.35 vs -0.10), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.