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VGSH vs. UCO
Performance
Return for Risk
Drawdowns
Volatility
Dividends

VGSH vs. UCO

Last updated Jun 4, 2026

VGSH (Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF) and UCO (ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil) are both exchange-traded funds - VGSH is a Government Bonds fund tracking the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury 1-3 Year Index, while UCO is a Leveraged Commodities fund tracking the Dow Jones-UBS Crude Oil Sub-Index (200%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, VGSH returned 1.74%/yr vs -11.31%/yr for UCO. At a correlation of -0.14, they often move in opposite directions. VGSH charges 0.03%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UCO.

Performance

VGSH vs. UCO - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

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Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, VGSH achieves a 0.48% return, which is significantly lower than UCO's 149.12% return. Over the past 10 years, VGSH has outperformed UCO with an annualized return of 1.74%, while UCO has yielded a comparatively lower -11.31% annualized return.

VGSH

1D
-0.03%
1M
0.08%
YTD
0.48%
6M
0.74%
1Y
3.43%
3Y*
4.15%
5Y*
1.81%
10Y*
1.74%

UCO

1D
2.71%
1M
-4.64%
YTD
149.12%
6M
137.09%
1Y
120.48%
3Y*
25.90%
5Y*
22.16%
10Y*
-11.31%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

VGSH vs. UCO - Yearly Performance Comparison

2026 (YTD)202520242023202220212020201920182017
VGSH
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF		0.48%5.07%4.00%4.31%-3.86%-0.60%3.04%3.52%1.55%0.04%
UCO
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil		149.12%-29.75%5.36%-13.89%39.71%139.26%-92.91%53.83%-43.26%0.34%

Correlation

The correlation between VGSH and UCO is -0.37, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

Correlation
Correlation (1Y)
Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

-0.37

Correlation (3Y)
Calculated over the trailing 3-year period

-0.21

Correlation (5Y)
Calculated over the trailing 5-year period

-0.14

Correlation (10Y)
Calculated over the trailing 10-year period

-0.15

Correlation (All Time)
Calculated using the full available price history since Nov 24, 2009

-0.14

Over the past year, the inverse relationship between VGSH and UCO has strengthened: their correlation has moved from -0.14 to -0.37, meaning they now move in opposite directions more often than their long-term average.

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Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF

ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil

Often compared with VGSH:
VGSH vs. sgovVGSH vs. SHVVGSH vs. SHYVGSH vs. SGOVVGSH vs. BNDVGSH vs. VTIPVGSH vs. VCSH
Often compared with UCO:
UCO vs. USOUCO vs. SCOUCO vs. OILUUCO vs. BOILUCO vs. ERXUCO vs. LABUUCO vs. OIH

Return for Risk

VGSH vs. UCO — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.
VGSH
VGSH Risk / Return Rank: 8383
Overall Rank
VGSH Sharpe Ratio Rank: 8181
Sharpe Ratio Rank
VGSH Sortino Ratio Rank: 9191
Sortino Ratio Rank
VGSH Omega Ratio Rank: 8888
Omega Ratio Rank
VGSH Calmar Ratio Rank: 7676
Calmar Ratio Rank
VGSH Martin Ratio Rank: 7878
Martin Ratio Rank
UCO
UCO Risk / Return Rank: 5454
Overall Rank
UCO Sharpe Ratio Rank: 6262
Sharpe Ratio Rank
UCO Sortino Ratio Rank: 5050
Sortino Ratio Rank
UCO Omega Ratio Rank: 5050
Omega Ratio Rank
UCO Calmar Ratio Rank: 6969
Calmar Ratio Rank
UCO Martin Ratio Rank: 4141
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

VGSH vs. UCO - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

VGSHUCODifference
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility
2.68
2.12

+0.56

Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk
4.43
2.46

+1.97

Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability

1.57

1.32

+0.25

Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown

3.90

3.49

+0.41

Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown

15.52

6.60

+8.92

Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

VGSH vs. UCO - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current VGSH Sharpe Ratio is 2.68, which is comparable to the UCO Sharpe Ratio of 2.12. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of VGSH and UCO, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

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Sharpe Ratios by Period

VGSHUCODifference

Sharpe Ratio (1Y)

Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

2.68

2.12

+0.56

Sharpe Ratio (5Y)

Calculated over the trailing 5-year period

0.93

0.37

+0.55

Sharpe Ratio (10Y)

Calculated over the trailing 10-year period

1.11

-0.16

+1.26

Sharpe Ratio (All Time)

Calculated using the full available price history

1.01

-0.34

+1.36

Drawdowns

VGSH vs. UCO - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum VGSH drawdown since its inception was -5.70%, smaller than the maximum UCO drawdown of -99.95%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for VGSH and UCO.

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Drawdown Indicators

VGSHUCODifference

Max Drawdown

Largest peak-to-trough decline

-5.70%

-99.95%

+94.25%

Max Drawdown (1Y)

Largest decline over 1 year

-0.88%

-34.77%

+33.89%

Max Drawdown (3Y)

Largest decline over 3 years

-0.97%

-50.38%

+49.41%

Max Drawdown (5Y)

Largest decline over 5 years

-5.66%

-67.24%

+61.58%

Max Drawdown (10Y)

Largest decline over 10 years

-5.70%

-98.75%

+93.05%

Current Drawdown

Current decline from peak

-0.29%

-99.23%

+98.94%

Average Drawdown

Average peak-to-trough decline

-0.60%

-85.49%

+84.89%

Ulcer Index

Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks

0.22%

18.33%

-18.11%

Volatility

VGSH vs. UCO - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) is 0.35%, while ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) has a volatility of 20.83%. This indicates that VGSH experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than UCO based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

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Volatility by Period

VGSHUCODifference

Volatility (1M)

Calculated over the trailing 1-month period

0.35%

20.83%

-20.48%

Volatility (6M)

Calculated over the trailing 6-month period

0.88%

46.44%

-45.56%

Volatility (1Y)

Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

1.29%

57.11%

-55.82%

Volatility (5Y)

Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized

1.97%

59.78%

-57.81%

Volatility (10Y)

Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized

1.57%

71.36%

-69.79%

VGSH vs. UCO - Expense Ratio Comparison

VGSH has a 0.03% expense ratio, which is lower than UCO's 0.95% expense ratio.

Dividends

VGSH vs. UCO - Dividend Comparison

VGSH's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.87%, while UCO has not paid dividends to shareholders.

PositionTTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
UCO
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil		0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
VGSH
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF		3.87%4.00%4.18%3.31%1.15%0.66%1.74%2.28%1.79%1.10%0.84%0.69%

Frequently Asked Questions

VGSH and UCO have a correlation of -0.37, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

UCO has higher volatility (20.83%) compared to VGSH (0.35%). In terms of maximum drawdown, VGSH dropped -5.70% vs UCO's -99.95%.

On 10-year performance, VGSH leads with 1.74% vs -11.31% for UCO. On fees, VGSH is cheaper at 0.03% per year. On volatility, VGSH has been the lower-risk option at 0.35%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Over the 10-year period, VGSH has performed better with a 1.74% return vs -11.31%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

VGSH is cheaper with a 0.03% expense ratio, compared with 0.95% for UCO.

VGSH has the higher dividend yield at 3.87%, compared with 0.00% for UCO.

VGSH is categorized as Government Bonds, while UCO is Leveraged Commodities. VGSH tracks Bloomberg U.S. Treasury 1-3 Year Index, while UCO tracks Dow Jones-UBS Crude Oil Sub-Index (200%). They also come from different issuers: Vanguard and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 0.03% for VGSH and 0.95% for UCO.

VGSH currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.68 vs 2.12), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.

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