UPST vs. SPUU

Last updated Jun 25, 2026

UPST (Upstart Holdings, Inc.) is a stock, while SPUU (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X ETF) is Leveraged Equities fund tracking the S&P 500 Index (200% Daily). Over the past 5 years, UPST returned -23.20%/yr vs 18.24%/yr for SPUU. A 0.51 correlation means they provide meaningful diversification when combined.

Performance

UPST vs. SPUU - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) and Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X ETF (SPUU). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, UPST achieves a -25.34% return, which is significantly lower than SPUU's 13.21% return.

UPST

• 1D: 3.78%
• 1M: 14.32%
• YTD: -25.34%
• 6M: -32.29%
• 1Y: -49.65%
• 3Y*: 2.72%
• 5Y*: -23.20%
• 10Y*: —

SPUU

• 1D: -0.25%
• 1M: -3.30%
• YTD: 13.21%
• 6M: 10.18%
• 1Y: 39.63%
• 3Y*: 34.28%
• 5Y*: 18.24%
• 10Y*: 24.79%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

UPST vs. SPUU - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc.	-25.34%	-28.98%	50.69%	209.08%	-91.26%	271.29%	56.73%
SPUU Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X ETF	13.21%	26.55%	44.25%	47.28%	-38.72%	61.27%	3.38%

Correlation

The correlation between UPST and SPUU is 0.51, which is moderate. They share some common price drivers but move independently often enough to provide real diversification benefit when combined.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.51
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.54
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.55
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Dec 16, 2020	0.51

The correlation between UPST and SPUU has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.51 to 0.55 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

UPST vs. SPUU — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

UPST

UPST Risk / Return Rank: 16
UPST Sharpe Ratio Rank: 12
UPST Sortino Ratio Rank: 15
UPST Omega Ratio Rank: 16
UPST Calmar Ratio Rank: 16
UPST Martin Ratio Rank: 22

SPUU

SPUU Risk / Return Rank: 50
SPUU Sharpe Ratio Rank: 51
SPUU Sortino Ratio Rank: 46
SPUU Omega Ratio Rank: 48
SPUU Calmar Ratio Rank: 49
SPUU Martin Ratio Rank: 58

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

UPST vs. SPUU - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) and Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X ETF (SPUU). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	UPST	SPUU	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-0.71	1.59	-2.30
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-0.83	2.11	-2.95
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.90	1.28	-0.38
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.70	2.19	-2.89
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.02	9.27	-10.29

UPST vs. SPUU - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current UPST Sharpe Ratio is -0.71, which is lower than the SPUU Sharpe Ratio of 1.59. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of UPST and SPUU, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

UPST vs. SPUU - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum UPST drawdown since its inception was -96.90%, which is greater than SPUU's maximum drawdown of -59.35%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UPST and SPUU.

Drawdown Indicators

	UPST	SPUU	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-96.90%	-59.35%	-37.55%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-71.21%	-18.19%	-53.02%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-72.72%	-35.18%	-37.54%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-96.90%	-46.59%	-50.31%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-59.35%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-91.63%	-6.72%	-84.91%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-76.26%	-9.48%	-66.78%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	48.93%	4.29%	+44.64%

Volatility

UPST vs. SPUU - Volatility Comparison

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has a higher volatility of 21.78% compared to Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X ETF (SPUU) at 9.63%. This indicates that UPST's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than SPUU based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	UPST	SPUU	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	21.78%	9.63%	+12.15%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	50.83%	19.85%	+30.98%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	70.53%	25.15%	+45.38%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	103.72%	33.67%	+70.05%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	113.78%	35.80%	+77.98%

Dividends

UPST vs. SPUU - Dividend Comparison

UPST has not paid dividends to shareholders, while SPUU's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 1.39%.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
SPUU Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X ETF	1.39%	1.63%	0.55%	0.83%	0.88%	3.04%	8.03%	1.80%	5.50%	6.96%	8.08%	4.42%
UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc.	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both UPST and SPUU in my portfolio?

UPST and SPUU have a correlation of 0.51, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, UPST or SPUU?

UPST has higher volatility (21.78%) compared to SPUU (9.63%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UPST dropped -96.90% vs SPUU's -59.35%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

SPUU currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.59 vs -0.71), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.