UGL vs. TMF
UGL (ProShares Ultra Gold) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - UGL is a Leveraged Commodities fund tracking the Bloomberg Gold Subindex (200%), while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UGL returned 16.73%/yr vs -16.93%/yr for TMF. At a 0.21 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. UGL charges 0.95%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
UGL vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UGL achieves a -8.09% return, which is significantly lower than TMF's -5.18% return. Over the past 10 years, UGL has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 16.73%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.93% annualized return.
UGL
- 1D
- 5.24%
- 1M
- -10.54%
- YTD
- -8.09%
- 6M
- -8.60%
- 1Y
- 36.19%
- 3Y*
- 49.85%
- 5Y*
- 27.24%
- 10Y*
- 16.73%
TMF
- 1D
- 0.00%
- 1M
- 7.62%
- YTD
- -5.18%
- 6M
- -5.24%
- 1Y
- -1.79%
- 3Y*
- -20.85%
- 5Y*
- -30.62%
- 10Y*
- -16.93%
UGL vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UGL ProShares Ultra Gold | -8.09% | 137.57% | 46.36% | 15.56% | -7.59% | -12.30% | 39.04% | 31.11% | -8.02% | 22.50% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -5.18% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between UGL and TMF is 0.16, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.16 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.17 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.24 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.30 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.21 |
The correlation between UGL and TMF shifts across timeframes, from 0.16 (1 year) to 0.30 (10 years), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
UGL vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
UGL
TMF
UGL vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UGL | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.73 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +1.02 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.17 | 1.01 | +0.16 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.78 | -0.07 | +0.85 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 2.03 | -0.15 | +2.18 |
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Drawdowns
UGL vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UGL drawdown since its inception was -75.93%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UGL and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UGL | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -75.93% | -92.89% | +16.96% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -46.64% | -26.51% | -20.13% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -46.64% | -56.31% | +9.67% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -46.64% | -88.81% | +42.17% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -46.64% | -92.89% | +46.25% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -40.40% | -92.15% | +51.75% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.62% | -43.71% | +0.09% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 17.95% | 12.01% | +5.94% |
Volatility
UGL vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) has a higher volatility of 16.68% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 8.43%. This indicates that UGL's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UGL | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 16.68% | 8.43% | +8.25% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 48.87% | 19.46% | +29.41% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 54.64% | 28.14% | +26.50% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 36.69% | 46.73% | -10.04% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 32.62% | 43.93% | -11.31% |
UGL vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
UGL has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
UGL vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
UGL has not paid dividends to shareholders, while TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.11%.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.11% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
UGL ProShares Ultra Gold | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
UGL and TMF have a correlation of 0.16, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UGL has higher volatility (16.68%) compared to TMF (8.43%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UGL dropped -75.93% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, UGL leads with 16.73% vs -16.93% for TMF. On fees, UGL is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 8.43%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UGL has performed better with a 16.73% return vs -16.93%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UGL is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.11%, compared with 0.00% for UGL.
UGL is categorized as Leveraged Commodities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. UGL tracks Bloomberg Gold Subindex (200%), while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UGL and 1.01% for TMF.
UGL currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.67 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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