TYO vs. UBT
TYO (Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X) and UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - TYO tracks the NYSE 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index while UBT tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TYO returned 2.43%/yr vs -9.26%/yr for UBT. At a correlation of -0.88, they often move in opposite directions. TYO charges 1.08%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UBT.
Performance
TYO vs. UBT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TYO achieves a 10.78% return, which is significantly higher than UBT's -5.35% return. Over the past 10 years, TYO has outperformed UBT with an annualized return of 2.43%, while UBT has yielded a comparatively lower -9.26% annualized return.
TYO
- 1D
- 1.40%
- 1M
- 3.20%
- 6M
- 10.70%
- YTD
- 10.78%
- 1Y
- 6.55%
- 3Y*
- 7.57%
- 5Y*
- 14.33%
- 10Y*
- 2.43%
UBT
- 1D
- -1.15%
- 1M
- -3.39%
- 6M
- -6.26%
- YTD
- -5.35%
- 1Y
- -0.34%
- 3Y*
- -10.62%
- 5Y*
- -20.04%
- 10Y*
- -9.26%
TYO vs. UBT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TYO Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X | 10.78% | -7.64% | 18.94% | 1.06% | 58.83% | 7.47% | -28.56% | -18.71% | -1.42% | -8.94% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | -5.35% | 2.03% | -21.81% | -3.68% | -55.54% | -12.14% | 31.87% | 24.46% | -6.54% | 16.12% |
Correlation
The correlation between TYO and UBT is -0.86, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.86 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.91 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.90 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.87 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 21, 2010 | -0.88 |
The correlation between TYO and UBT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.91 to -0.86 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TYO vs. UBT — Risk / Return Rank
TYO
UBT
TYO vs. UBT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X (TYO) and ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TYO | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.48 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.63 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.09 | 1.01 | +0.07 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.66 | -0.02 | +0.68 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 1.20 | -0.04 | +1.24 |
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Drawdowns
TYO vs. UBT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TYO drawdown since its inception was -89.25%, which is greater than UBT's maximum drawdown of -78.90%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TYO and UBT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TYO | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -89.25% | -78.90% | -10.35% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -10.00% | -16.86% | +6.86% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -24.40% | -35.81% | +11.41% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -24.40% | -72.49% | +48.09% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -52.21% | -78.90% | +26.69% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -76.60% | -77.30% | +0.70% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -71.11% | -32.57% | -38.54% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 5.48% | 7.73% | -2.25% |
Volatility
TYO vs. UBT - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X (TYO) is 4.73%, while ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) has a volatility of 5.91%. This indicates that TYO experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than UBT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TYO | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 4.73% | 5.91% | -1.18% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 10.88% | 13.46% | -2.58% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 14.28% | 18.75% | -4.47% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 23.21% | 31.20% | -7.99% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 20.15% | 29.18% | -9.03% |
TYO vs. UBT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TYO has a 1.08% expense ratio, which is higher than UBT's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
TYO vs. UBT - Dividend Comparison
TYO's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.52%, less than UBT's 3.62% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TYO Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.52% | 3.69% | 4.22% | 3.62% | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.36% | 1.58% | 0.32% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | 3.62% | 4.26% | 4.50% | 3.54% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 1.50% | 1.55% | 1.37% | 0.75% | 1.56% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TYO and UBT have a correlation of -0.86, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UBT has higher volatility (5.91%) compared to TYO (4.73%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TYO dropped -89.25% vs UBT's -78.90%.
On 10-year performance, TYO leads with 2.43% vs -9.26% for UBT. On fees, UBT is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, TYO has been the lower-risk option at 4.73%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TYO has performed better with a 2.43% return vs -9.26%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UBT is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.08% for TYO.
UBT has the higher dividend yield at 3.62%, compared with 2.52% for TYO.
TYO tracks NYSE 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index, while UBT tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.08% for TYO and 0.95% for UBT.
TYO currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.46 vs -0.02), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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