TBT vs. TMF
TBT (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TBT is a Inverse Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TBT returned 2.32%/yr vs -16.87%/yr for TMF. At a correlation of -0.99, they often move in opposite directions. TBT charges 0.93%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
TBT vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TBT achieves a 1.05% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -4.67% return. Over the past 10 years, TBT has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 2.32%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.87% annualized return.
TBT
- 1D
- -0.51%
- 1M
- -4.25%
- YTD
- 1.05%
- 6M
- 2.51%
- 1Y
- -0.72%
- 3Y*
- 10.52%
- 5Y*
- 16.22%
- 10Y*
- 2.32%
TMF
- 1D
- -0.62%
- 1M
- 4.96%
- YTD
- -4.67%
- 6M
- -5.95%
- 1Y
- -2.80%
- 3Y*
- -21.07%
- 5Y*
- -31.33%
- 10Y*
- -16.87%
TBT vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 1.05% | -1.45% | 27.66% | -2.42% | 93.29% | 2.86% | -37.93% | -22.90% | 4.98% | -17.25% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -4.67% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between TBT and TMF is -0.99, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.99 |
The correlation between TBT and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -1.00 to -0.99 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TBT vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
TBT
TMF
TBT vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TBT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.06 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.03 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.00 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.05 | -0.11 | +0.06 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.10 | -0.23 | +0.13 |
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Drawdowns
TBT vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TBT drawdown since its inception was -94.99%, roughly equal to the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TBT and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TBT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -94.99% | -92.89% | -2.10% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -14.89% | -26.51% | +11.62% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -33.83% | -56.09% | +22.26% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -33.83% | -88.81% | +54.98% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -65.09% | -92.89% | +27.80% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -85.92% | -92.11% | +6.19% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -77.34% | -43.76% | -33.58% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 7.55% | 12.26% | -4.71% |
Volatility
TBT vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) is 4.53%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 6.50%. This indicates that TBT experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TBT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 4.53% | 6.50% | -1.97% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 13.49% | 19.35% | -5.86% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 19.19% | 27.91% | -8.72% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 31.32% | 46.59% | -15.27% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 28.75% | 43.86% | -15.11% |
TBT vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
TBT has a 0.93% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
TBT vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
TBT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.95%, less than TMF's 4.09% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 2.95% | 3.21% | 4.64% | 4.98% | 0.42% | 0.00% | 0.32% | 2.12% | 0.99% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.09% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TBT and TMF have a correlation of -0.99, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (6.50%) compared to TBT (4.53%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TBT dropped -94.99% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, TBT leads with 2.32% vs -16.87% for TMF. On fees, TBT is cheaper at 0.93% per year. On volatility, TBT has been the lower-risk option at 4.53%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TBT has performed better with a 2.32% return vs -16.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TBT is cheaper with a 0.93% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.09%, compared with 2.95% for TBT.
TBT is categorized as Inverse Bonds, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. TBT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.93% for TBT and 1.01% for TMF.
TBT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.04 vs -0.10), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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