TMV vs. ISTB
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and ISTB (iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while ISTB is a Short-Term Bond fund tracking the BBG US Universal 1-5 Year Index (USD). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned 1.86%/yr vs 2.20%/yr for ISTB. Their -0.56 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.06%/yr for ISTB.
Performance
TMV vs. ISTB - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 17.52% return, which is significantly higher than ISTB's 0.63% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed ISTB with an annualized return of 1.86%, while ISTB has yielded a comparatively higher 2.20% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- 1.99%
- 1M
- 13.35%
- 6M
- 16.52%
- YTD
- 17.52%
- 1Y
- 19.49%
- 3Y*
- 13.00%
- 5Y*
- 27.59%
- 10Y*
- 1.86%
- ALL TIME*
- -14.05%
ISTB
- 1D
- -0.04%
- 1M
- -0.19%
- 6M
- 0.35%
- YTD
- 0.63%
- 1Y
- 2.74%
- 3Y*
- 4.99%
- 5Y*
- 1.86%
- 10Y*
- 2.20%
- ALL TIME*
- 2.01%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $20.52M | $19.72M | $25.64M | |
| $29.38M | $22.37M | $25.43M |
TMV vs. ISTB - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 17.52% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
ISTB iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF | 0.63% | 6.36% | 4.37% | 5.56% | -6.08% | -0.71% | 4.75% | 5.61% | 1.02% | 1.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and ISTB is -0.73, meaning they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. This relationship can weaken or reverse as market conditions change.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | -0.73 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | -0.76 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | -0.73 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | -0.63 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Oct 24, 2012 | -0.56 |
The correlation between TMV and ISTB shifts across timeframes, from -0.76 (3 years) to -0.56 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. ISTB — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
ISTB
TMV vs. ISTB - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF (ISTB). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | ISTB | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.30 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.86 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.11 | 1.34 | -0.24 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.75 | 2.61 | -1.86 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 1.56 | 9.39 | -7.83 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. ISTB - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than ISTB's maximum drawdown of -9.34%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and ISTB.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | ISTB | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -9.34% | -89.62% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -19.32% | -1.26% | -18.06% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -1.36% | -47.13% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -9.34% | -39.15% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -9.34% | -72.97% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -95.44% | -0.27% | -95.17% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.66% | -1.21% | -85.45% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 9.32% | 0.35% | +8.97% |
Volatility
TMV vs. ISTB - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 7.07% compared to iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF (ISTB) at 0.48%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than ISTB based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | ISTB | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.07% | 0.48% | +6.59% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 20.12% | 1.42% | +18.70% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.60% | 1.80% | +25.80% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.81% | 2.81% | +44.00% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.23% | 2.51% | +41.72% |
TMV vs. ISTB - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than ISTB's 0.06% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. ISTB - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.25%, less than ISTB's 4.26% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ISTB iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF | 3.91% | 4.12% | 3.83% | 2.97% | 2.01% | 1.69% | 2.20% | 2.75% | 2.57% | 2.06% | 1.90% | 1.58% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.25% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and ISTB have a correlation of -0.73, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (7.07%) compared to ISTB (0.48%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs ISTB's -9.34%.
On 10-year performance, ISTB leads with 2.20% vs 1.86% for TMV. On fees, ISTB is cheaper at 0.06% per year. On volatility, ISTB has been the lower-risk option at 0.48%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, ISTB has performed better with a 2.20% return vs 1.86%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
ISTB is cheaper with a 0.06% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
ISTB has the higher dividend yield at 3.91%, compared with 2.25% for TMV.
TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while ISTB is Short-Term Bond. TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while ISTB tracks BBG US Universal 1-5 Year Index (USD). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and iShares. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.06% for ISTB.
ISTB currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.83 vs 0.53), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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