TMV vs. GLD
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) are both exchange-traded funds - TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while GLD is a Gold fund tracking the LBMA Gold Price PM. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned -0.46%/yr vs 11.59%/yr for GLD. At a correlation of -0.21, they often move in opposite directions. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.40%/yr for GLD.
Performance
TMV vs. GLD - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 1.44% return, which is significantly higher than GLD's -4.79% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed GLD with an annualized return of -0.46%, while GLD has yielded a comparatively higher 11.59% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- -1.17%
- 1M
- -6.25%
- YTD
- 1.44%
- 6M
- 2.97%
- 1Y
- -1.80%
- 3Y*
- 12.91%
- 5Y*
- 20.39%
- 10Y*
- -0.46%
GLD
- 1D
- -1.89%
- 1M
- -8.82%
- YTD
- -4.79%
- 6M
- -8.78%
- 1Y
- 21.29%
- 3Y*
- 28.41%
- 5Y*
- 17.84%
- 10Y*
- 11.59%
TMV vs. GLD - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 1.44% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | -4.79% | 63.68% | 26.66% | 12.69% | -0.77% | -4.15% | 24.81% | 17.86% | -1.94% | 12.81% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and GLD is -0.16, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.16 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.18 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.24 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.30 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.21 |
The correlation between TMV and GLD shifts across timeframes, from -0.30 (10 years) to -0.16 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. GLD — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
GLD
TMV vs. GLD - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | GLD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.84 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.02 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.17 | -0.15 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.08 | 0.87 | -0.96 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.16 | 2.35 | -2.51 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. GLD - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than GLD's maximum drawdown of -45.56%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and GLD.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | GLD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -45.56% | -53.40% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -24.46% | +2.84% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -24.46% | -24.03% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -24.46% | -24.03% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -24.46% | -57.85% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -96.06% | -23.91% | -72.15% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.61% | -16.17% | -70.44% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.09% | 9.10% | +1.99% |
Volatility
TMV vs. GLD - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) is 6.55%, while SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has a volatility of 8.18%. This indicates that TMV experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than GLD based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | GLD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 6.55% | 8.18% | -1.63% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.56% | 24.38% | -4.82% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.25% | 27.57% | +0.68% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 47.05% | 18.24% | +28.81% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.38% | 16.04% | +28.34% |
TMV vs. GLD - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than GLD's 0.40% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. GLD - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.70%, while GLD has not paid dividends to shareholders.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.70% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and GLD have a correlation of -0.16, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
GLD has higher volatility (8.18%) compared to TMV (6.55%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs GLD's -45.56%.
On 10-year performance, GLD leads with 11.59% vs -0.46% for TMV. On fees, GLD is cheaper at 0.40% per year. On volatility, TMV has been the lower-risk option at 6.55%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, GLD has performed better with a 11.59% return vs -0.46%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
GLD is cheaper with a 0.40% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
TMV has the higher dividend yield at 2.70%, compared with 0.00% for GLD.
TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while GLD is Gold. TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while GLD tracks LBMA Gold Price PM. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and State Street. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.40% for GLD.
GLD currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.78 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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