TMV vs. GLD
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) are both exchange-traded funds - TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while GLD is a Gold fund tracking the LBMA Gold Price PM. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned 1.08%/yr vs 11.36%/yr for GLD. At a correlation of -0.21, they often move in opposite directions. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.40%/yr for GLD.
Performance
TMV vs. GLD - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 9.48% return, which is significantly higher than GLD's -6.10% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed GLD with an annualized return of 1.08%, while GLD has yielded a comparatively higher 11.36% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- -0.35%
- 1M
- 5.74%
- 6M
- 11.49%
- YTD
- 9.48%
- 1Y
- 2.40%
- 3Y*
- 13.70%
- 5Y*
- 25.06%
- 10Y*
- 1.08%
GLD
- 1D
- 1.37%
- 1M
- -3.72%
- 6M
- -11.74%
- YTD
- -6.10%
- 1Y
- 20.82%
- 3Y*
- 27.06%
- 5Y*
- 16.82%
- 10Y*
- 11.36%
TMV vs. GLD - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 9.48% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | -6.10% | 63.68% | 26.66% | 12.69% | -0.77% | -4.15% | 24.81% | 17.86% | -1.94% | 12.81% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and GLD is -0.16, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.16 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.17 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.24 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.29 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.21 |
The correlation between TMV and GLD shifts across timeframes, from -0.29 (10 years) to -0.16 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. GLD — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
GLD
TMV vs. GLD - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | GLD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.66 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.78 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.04 | 1.16 | -0.12 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.11 | 0.80 | -0.69 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.21 | 1.93 | -1.72 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. GLD - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than GLD's maximum drawdown of -45.56%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and GLD.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | GLD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -45.56% | -53.40% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -26.21% | +4.59% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -26.21% | -22.28% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -26.21% | -22.28% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -26.21% | -56.10% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -95.75% | -24.95% | -70.80% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.64% | -16.19% | -70.45% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.32% | 10.80% | +0.52% |
Volatility
TMV vs. GLD - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 7.69% compared to SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) at 6.99%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than GLD based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | GLD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.69% | 6.99% | +0.70% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 20.06% | 24.21% | -4.15% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.92% | 27.93% | -0.01% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.97% | 18.40% | +28.57% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.25% | 16.10% | +28.15% |
TMV vs. GLD - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than GLD's 0.40% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. GLD - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.41%, while GLD has not paid dividends to shareholders.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.41% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and GLD have a correlation of -0.16, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (7.69%) compared to GLD (6.99%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs GLD's -45.56%.
On 10-year performance, GLD leads with 11.36% vs 1.08% for TMV. On fees, GLD is cheaper at 0.40% per year. On volatility, GLD has been the lower-risk option at 6.99%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, GLD has performed better with a 11.36% return vs 1.08%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
GLD is cheaper with a 0.40% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
TMV has the higher dividend yield at 2.41%, compared with 0.00% for GLD.
TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while GLD is Gold. TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while GLD tracks LBMA Gold Price PM. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and State Street. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.40% for GLD.
GLD currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.75 vs 0.09), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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