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TMV vs. GBTC
Performance
Return for Risk
Drawdowns
Volatility
Dividends

Performance

TMV vs. GBTC - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

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Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 9.48% return, which is significantly higher than GBTC's -26.81% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed GBTC with an annualized return of 1.08%, while GBTC has yielded a comparatively higher 45.74% annualized return.


TMV

1D
-0.35%
1M
5.74%
6M
11.49%
YTD
9.48%
1Y
2.40%
3Y*
13.70%
5Y*
25.06%
10Y*
1.08%

GBTC

1D
3.75%
1M
1.40%
6M
-32.19%
YTD
-26.81%
1Y
-46.99%
3Y*
36.32%
5Y*
14.41%
10Y*
45.74%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

TMV vs. GBTC - Yearly Performance Comparison


2026 (YTD)202520242023202220212020201920182017
TMV
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X
9.48%-3.75%39.76%-9.69%150.18%0.83%-54.13%-34.22%3.99%-26.48%
GBTC
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
-26.81%-7.65%113.81%317.61%-75.80%7.03%290.72%106.56%-82.10%1,787.72%

Correlation

The correlation between TMV and GBTC is -0.07, meaning there is essentially no relationship between their price movements. Each responds to its own set of market drivers, making them strong candidates for combining in a diversified portfolio.


Correlation
Correlation (1Y)
Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

-0.07

Correlation (3Y)
Calculated over the trailing 3-year period

-0.03

Correlation (5Y)
Calculated over the trailing 5-year period

-0.01

Correlation (10Y)
Calculated over the trailing 10-year period

0.01

Correlation (All Time)
Calculated using the full available price history since May 4, 2015

0.01

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Return for Risk

TMV vs. GBTC — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

TMV
TMV Risk / Return Rank: 1111
Overall Rank
TMV Sharpe Ratio Rank: 1111
Sharpe Ratio Rank
TMV Sortino Ratio Rank: 1111
Sortino Ratio Rank
TMV Omega Ratio Rank: 1111
Omega Ratio Rank
TMV Calmar Ratio Rank: 1111
Calmar Ratio Rank
TMV Martin Ratio Rank: 1010
Martin Ratio Rank

GBTC
GBTC Risk / Return Rank: 22
Overall Rank
GBTC Sharpe Ratio Rank: 11
Sharpe Ratio Rank
GBTC Sortino Ratio Rank: 22
Sortino Ratio Rank
GBTC Omega Ratio Rank: 22
Omega Ratio Rank
GBTC Calmar Ratio Rank: 22
Calmar Ratio Rank
GBTC Martin Ratio Rank: 22
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

TMV vs. GBTC - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.


TMVGBTCDifference
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility

+1.15

Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk

+1.94

Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability

1.04

0.82

+0.21

Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown

0.11

-0.88

+0.99

Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown

0.21

-1.42

+1.63

TMV vs. GBTC - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current TMV Sharpe Ratio is 0.09, which is higher than the GBTC Sharpe Ratio of -1.06. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of TMV and GBTC, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.


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Drawdowns

TMV vs. GBTC - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than GBTC's maximum drawdown of -89.91%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and GBTC.


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Drawdown Indicators


TMVGBTCDifference

Max Drawdown

Largest peak-to-trough decline

-98.96%

-89.91%

-9.05%

Max Drawdown (1Y)

Largest decline over 1 year

-21.62%

-53.75%

+32.13%

Max Drawdown (3Y)

Largest decline over 3 years

-48.49%

-53.75%

+5.26%

Max Drawdown (5Y)

Largest decline over 5 years

-48.49%

-85.42%

+36.93%

Max Drawdown (10Y)

Largest decline over 10 years

-82.31%

-89.91%

+7.60%

Current Drawdown

Current decline from peak

-95.75%

-49.17%

-46.58%

Average Drawdown

Average peak-to-trough decline

-86.64%

-43.48%

-43.16%

Ulcer Index

Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks

11.32%

33.10%

-21.78%

Volatility

TMV vs. GBTC - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) is 7.69%, while Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) has a volatility of 11.68%. This indicates that TMV experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than GBTC based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.


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Volatility by Period


TMVGBTCDifference

Volatility (1M)

Calculated over the trailing 1-month period

7.69%

11.68%

-3.99%

Volatility (6M)

Calculated over the trailing 6-month period

20.06%

34.94%

-14.88%

Volatility (1Y)

Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

27.92%

44.38%

-16.46%

Volatility (5Y)

Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized

46.97%

61.88%

-14.91%

Volatility (10Y)

Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized

44.25%

81.46%

-37.21%

TMV vs. GBTC - Expense Ratio Comparison

TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is lower than GBTC's 1.50% expense ratio.


Dividends

TMV vs. GBTC - Dividend Comparison

TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.41%, while GBTC has not paid dividends to shareholders.


PositionTTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
GBTC
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.61%
TMV
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X
2.41%2.85%3.41%3.87%0.00%0.00%0.37%1.60%0.62%0.00%

Frequently Asked Questions


TMV and GBTC have a correlation of -0.07, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

GBTC has higher volatility (11.68%) compared to TMV (7.69%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs GBTC's -89.91%.

On 10-year performance, GBTC leads with 45.74% vs 1.08% for TMV. On fees, TMV is cheaper at 1.04% per year. On volatility, TMV has been the lower-risk option at 7.69%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Over the 10-year period, GBTC has performed better with a 45.74% return vs 1.08%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

TMV is cheaper with a 1.04% expense ratio, compared with 1.50% for GBTC.

TMV has the higher dividend yield at 2.41%, compared with 0.00% for GBTC.

TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while GBTC is Cryptocurrency. TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while GBTC tracks CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark Rate Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and Grayscale. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 1.50% for GBTC.

TMV currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.09 vs -1.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.

Portfolio Optimizer

Find the right allocation for TMV and GBTC

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