TMV vs. GBTC
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while GBTC is a Cryptocurrency fund tracking the CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark Rate Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned 1.08%/yr vs 45.74%/yr for GBTC. At a 0.01 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 1.50%/yr for GBTC.
Performance
TMV vs. GBTC - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 9.48% return, which is significantly higher than GBTC's -26.81% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed GBTC with an annualized return of 1.08%, while GBTC has yielded a comparatively higher 45.74% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- -0.35%
- 1M
- 5.74%
- 6M
- 11.49%
- YTD
- 9.48%
- 1Y
- 2.40%
- 3Y*
- 13.70%
- 5Y*
- 25.06%
- 10Y*
- 1.08%
GBTC
- 1D
- 3.75%
- 1M
- 1.40%
- 6M
- -32.19%
- YTD
- -26.81%
- 1Y
- -46.99%
- 3Y*
- 36.32%
- 5Y*
- 14.41%
- 10Y*
- 45.74%
TMV vs. GBTC - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 9.48% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF | -26.81% | -7.65% | 113.81% | 317.61% | -75.80% | 7.03% | 290.72% | 106.56% | -82.10% | 1,787.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and GBTC is -0.07, meaning there is essentially no relationship between their price movements. Each responds to its own set of market drivers, making them strong candidates for combining in a diversified portfolio.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.07 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.03 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.01 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.01 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since May 4, 2015 | 0.01 |
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. GBTC — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
GBTC
TMV vs. GBTC - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | GBTC | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +1.15 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +1.94 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.04 | 0.82 | +0.21 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.11 | -0.88 | +0.99 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.21 | -1.42 | +1.63 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. GBTC - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than GBTC's maximum drawdown of -89.91%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and GBTC.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | GBTC | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -89.91% | -9.05% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -53.75% | +32.13% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -53.75% | +5.26% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -85.42% | +36.93% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -89.91% | +7.60% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -95.75% | -49.17% | -46.58% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.64% | -43.48% | -43.16% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.32% | 33.10% | -21.78% |
Volatility
TMV vs. GBTC - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) is 7.69%, while Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) has a volatility of 11.68%. This indicates that TMV experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than GBTC based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | GBTC | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.69% | 11.68% | -3.99% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 20.06% | 34.94% | -14.88% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.92% | 44.38% | -16.46% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.97% | 61.88% | -14.91% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.25% | 81.46% | -37.21% |
TMV vs. GBTC - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is lower than GBTC's 1.50% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. GBTC - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.41%, while GBTC has not paid dividends to shareholders.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.61% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.41% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and GBTC have a correlation of -0.07, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
GBTC has higher volatility (11.68%) compared to TMV (7.69%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs GBTC's -89.91%.
On 10-year performance, GBTC leads with 45.74% vs 1.08% for TMV. On fees, TMV is cheaper at 1.04% per year. On volatility, TMV has been the lower-risk option at 7.69%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, GBTC has performed better with a 45.74% return vs 1.08%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TMV is cheaper with a 1.04% expense ratio, compared with 1.50% for GBTC.
TMV has the higher dividend yield at 2.41%, compared with 0.00% for GBTC.
TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while GBTC is Cryptocurrency. TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while GBTC tracks CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark Rate Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and Grayscale. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 1.50% for GBTC.
TMV currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.09 vs -1.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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