TMV vs. BTC-USD
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while BTC-USD (Bitcoin) is a cryptocurrency. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned 1.70%/yr vs 59.80%/yr for BTC-USD. Their 0.00 correlation means their historical movements had little consistent relationship.
Performance
TMV vs. BTC-USD - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 16.38% return, which is significantly higher than BTC-USD's -27.65% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed BTC-USD with an annualized return of 1.70%, while BTC-USD has yielded a comparatively higher 59.80% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- -0.98%
- 1M
- 12.24%
- 6M
- 14.16%
- YTD
- 16.38%
- 1Y
- 18.32%
- 3Y*
- 10.87%
- 5Y*
- 28.21%
- 10Y*
- 1.70%
- ALL TIME*
- -14.09%
BTC-USD
- 1D
- -0.30%
- 1M
- 0.35%
- 6M
- -19.52%
- YTD
- -27.65%
- 1Y
- -44.57%
- 3Y*
- 29.61%
- 5Y*
- 9.77%
- 10Y*
- 59.80%
- ALL TIME*
- 87.13%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
BTC-USD Bitcoin | $1541.04T | $1614.90T | $2068.30T |
| $31.46M | $23.47M | $25.72M |
TMV vs. BTC-USD - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 16.38% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | -27.65% | -6.27% | 120.76% | 155.82% | -64.23% | 59.40% | 304.57% | 94.10% | -73.37% | 1,324.24% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and BTC-USD is -0.07, meaning there was essentially no consistent relationship between their historical price movements. Each responded to its own set of market drivers.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | -0.07 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | -0.02 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | -0.01 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | 0.01 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Nov 18, 2012 | 0.00 |
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. BTC-USD — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
BTC-USD
TMV vs. BTC-USD - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +1.71 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +2.64 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.13 | 0.85 | +0.28 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.95 | -0.84 | +1.79 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 1.97 | -1.29 | +3.26 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. BTC-USD - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than BTC-USD's maximum drawdown of -85.30%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and BTC-USD.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -85.30% | -13.66% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -19.32% | -53.08% | +33.76% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -53.08% | +4.59% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -76.67% | +28.18% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -83.80% | +1.49% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -95.48% | -49.24% | -46.24% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.67% | -42.74% | -43.93% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 9.30% | 25.03% | -15.73% |
Volatility
TMV vs. BTC-USD - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) is 7.23%, while Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has a volatility of 8.46%. This indicates that TMV experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than BTC-USD based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.23% | 8.46% | -1.23% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 20.10% | 33.65% | -13.55% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.33% | 35.87% | -8.54% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.82% | 43.64% | +3.18% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.23% | 56.22% | -11.99% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and BTC-USD have a correlation of -0.07, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
BTC-USD has higher volatility (8.46%) compared to TMV (7.23%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs BTC-USD's -85.30%.
TMV currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.67 vs -1.03), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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