TMV vs. AGNC

Last updated Jul 15, 2026

TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while AGNC (AGNC Investment Corp.) is a stock. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned 1.08%/yr vs 7.13%/yr for AGNC. At a correlation of -0.07, they often move in opposite directions.

Performance

TMV vs. AGNC - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 9.48% return, which is significantly lower than AGNC's 11.45% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed AGNC with an annualized return of 1.08%, while AGNC has yielded a comparatively higher 7.13% annualized return.

TMV

• 1D: -0.35%
• 1M: 5.74%
• 6M: 11.49%
• YTD: 9.48%
• 1Y: 2.40%
• 3Y*: 13.70%
• 5Y*: 25.06%
• 10Y*: 1.08%

AGNC

• 1D: 1.73%
• 1M: 9.63%
• 6M: 5.26%
• YTD: 11.45%
• 1Y: 37.89%
• 3Y*: 19.74%
• 5Y*: 6.58%
• 10Y*: 7.13%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

TMV vs. AGNC - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X	9.48%	-3.75%	39.76%	-9.69%	150.18%	0.83%	-54.13%	-34.22%	3.99%	-26.48%
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp.	11.45%	34.92%	8.90%	10.14%	-21.65%	5.20%	-1.78%	13.31%	-2.46%	23.73%

Correlation

The correlation between TMV and AGNC is -0.34, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.34
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	-0.38
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	-0.26
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	-0.14
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009	-0.07

Over the past year, the inverse relationship between TMV and AGNC has strengthened: their correlation has moved from -0.07 to -0.34, meaning they now move in opposite directions more often than their long-term average.

Return for Risk

TMV vs. AGNC — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

TMV

TMV Risk / Return Rank: 11
TMV Sharpe Ratio Rank: 11
TMV Sortino Ratio Rank: 11
TMV Omega Ratio Rank: 11
TMV Calmar Ratio Rank: 11
TMV Martin Ratio Rank: 10

AGNC

AGNC Risk / Return Rank: 85
AGNC Sharpe Ratio Rank: 91
AGNC Sortino Ratio Rank: 88
AGNC Omega Ratio Rank: 86
AGNC Calmar Ratio Rank: 79
AGNC Martin Ratio Rank: 82

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

TMV vs. AGNC - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	TMV	AGNC	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	0.09	1.91	-1.82
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	0.32	2.57	-2.26
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.04	1.32	-0.28
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	0.11	2.03	-1.92
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	0.21	5.69	-5.48

TMV vs. AGNC - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current TMV Sharpe Ratio is 0.09, which is lower than the AGNC Sharpe Ratio of 1.91. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of TMV and AGNC, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

TMV vs. AGNC - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than AGNC's maximum drawdown of -54.56%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and AGNC.

Drawdown Indicators

	TMV	AGNC	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-98.96%	-54.56%	-44.40%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-21.62%	-18.71%	-2.91%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-48.49%	-31.04%	-17.45%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-48.49%	-50.28%	+1.79%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-82.31%	-54.56%	-27.75%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-95.75%	-1.83%	-93.92%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-86.64%	-13.52%	-73.12%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	11.32%	6.68%	+4.64%

Volatility

TMV vs. AGNC - Volatility Comparison

Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 7.69% compared to AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) at 5.76%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than AGNC based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	TMV	AGNC	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	7.69%	5.76%	+1.93%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	20.06%	16.45%	+3.61%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	27.92%	19.97%	+7.95%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	46.97%	25.74%	+21.23%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	44.25%	25.44%	+18.81%

Dividends

TMV vs. AGNC - Dividend Comparison

TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.41%, less than AGNC's 12.88% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp.	12.88%	13.43%	15.64%	14.68%	13.91%	9.57%	10.00%	11.31%	12.31%	10.70%	12.69%	14.30%
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X	2.41%	2.85%	3.41%	3.87%	0.00%	0.00%	0.37%	1.60%	0.62%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both TMV and AGNC in my portfolio?

TMV and AGNC have a correlation of -0.34, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, TMV or AGNC?

TMV has higher volatility (7.69%) compared to AGNC (5.76%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs AGNC's -54.56%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

AGNC currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.91 vs 0.09), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.