TMF vs. TYO
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and TYO (Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X) are both Leveraged Bonds funds from Direxion - TMF tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%) while TYO tracks the NYSE 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -17.90%/yr vs 2.43%/yr for TYO. At a correlation of -0.89, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 1.08%/yr for TYO.
Performance
TMF vs. TYO - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -10.63% return, which is significantly lower than TYO's 10.78% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed TYO with an annualized return of -17.90%, while TYO has yielded a comparatively higher 2.43% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.85%
- 1M
- -5.74%
- 6M
- -11.74%
- YTD
- -10.63%
- 1Y
- -5.83%
- 3Y*
- -21.26%
- 5Y*
- -33.16%
- 10Y*
- -17.90%
TYO
- 1D
- 1.40%
- 1M
- 3.20%
- 6M
- 10.70%
- YTD
- 10.78%
- 1Y
- 6.55%
- 3Y*
- 7.57%
- 5Y*
- 14.33%
- 10Y*
- 2.43%
TMF vs. TYO - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.63% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
TYO Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X | 10.78% | -7.64% | 18.94% | 1.06% | 58.83% | 7.47% | -28.56% | -18.71% | -1.42% | -8.94% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and TYO is -0.89, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.89 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.92 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.91 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.87 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.89 |
The correlation between TMF and TYO has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.92 to -0.87 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. TYO — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
TYO
TMF vs. TYO - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X (TYO). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | TYO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.67 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.86 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.99 | 1.09 | -0.10 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.22 | 0.66 | -0.88 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.46 | 1.20 | -1.65 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. TYO - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, roughly equal to the maximum TYO drawdown of -89.25%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and TYO.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | TYO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -89.25% | -3.64% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -10.00% | -16.51% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -24.40% | -30.74% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -24.40% | -64.41% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -52.21% | -40.68% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.60% | -76.60% | -16.00% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.91% | -71.11% | +27.20% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.82% | 5.48% | +7.34% |
Volatility
TMF vs. TYO - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.51% compared to Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X (TYO) at 4.73%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TYO based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | TYO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.51% | 4.73% | +3.78% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.94% | 10.88% | +9.06% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.62% | 14.28% | +13.34% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.54% | 23.21% | +23.33% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.72% | 20.15% | +23.57% |
TMF vs. TYO - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is lower than TYO's 1.08% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. TYO - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.42%, more than TYO's 2.52% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.42% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
TYO Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.52% | 3.69% | 4.22% | 3.62% | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.36% | 1.58% | 0.32% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and TYO have a correlation of -0.89, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (8.51%) compared to TYO (4.73%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs TYO's -89.25%.
On 10-year performance, TYO leads with 2.43% vs -17.90% for TMF. On fees, TMF is cheaper at 1.01% per year. On volatility, TYO has been the lower-risk option at 4.73%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TYO has performed better with a 2.43% return vs -17.90%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TMF is cheaper with a 1.01% expense ratio, compared with 1.08% for TYO.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.42%, compared with 2.52% for TYO.
TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while TYO tracks NYSE 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 1.08% for TYO.
TYO currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.46 vs -0.21), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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