TMF vs. SPXS
TMF (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X) and SPXS (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (300%), while SPXS is a Inverse Equities fund tracking the S&P 500 Index (-300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -16.56%/yr vs -42.01%/yr for SPXS. At a 0.25 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. TMF charges 1.09%/yr vs 1.08%/yr for SPXS.
Performance
TMF vs. SPXS - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -6.13% return, which is significantly higher than SPXS's -25.49% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has outperformed SPXS with an annualized return of -16.56%, while SPXS has yielded a comparatively lower -42.01% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.14%
- 1M
- 1.22%
- YTD
- -6.13%
- 6M
- -11.63%
- 1Y
- 0.90%
- 3Y*
- -20.78%
- 5Y*
- -30.52%
- 10Y*
- -16.56%
SPXS
- 1D
- 2.19%
- 1M
- -13.11%
- YTD
- -25.49%
- 6M
- -24.86%
- 1Y
- -48.73%
- 3Y*
- -42.68%
- 5Y*
- -34.76%
- 10Y*
- -42.01%
TMF vs. SPXS - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | -6.13% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares | -25.49% | -41.53% | -42.84% | -45.97% | 36.14% | -58.11% | -70.47% | -56.40% | 3.44% | -44.52% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and SPXS is -0.20, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.20 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.18 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.07 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.09 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 17, 2009 | 0.25 |
The correlation between TMF and SPXS shifts across timeframes, from -0.20 (1 year) to 0.25 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. SPXS — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
SPXS
TMF vs. SPXS - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X (TMF) and Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (SPXS). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| TMF | SPXS | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +1.41 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +2.56 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.03 | 0.75 | +0.28 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.03 | -0.96 | +1.00 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.08 | -1.62 | +1.70 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
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Sharpe Ratios by Period
| TMF | SPXS | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe Ratio (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.03 | -1.38 | +1.41 |
Sharpe Ratio (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.66 | -0.69 | +0.04 |
Sharpe Ratio (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.38 | -0.79 | +0.41 |
Sharpe Ratio (All Time)Calculated using the full available price history | -0.14 | -0.83 | +0.70 |
Drawdowns
TMF vs. SPXS - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, smaller than the maximum SPXS drawdown of -100.00%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and SPXS.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | SPXS | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -100.00% | +7.11% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -50.77% | +24.26% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -56.31% | -84.13% | +27.82% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -90.11% | +1.30% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -99.63% | +6.74% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.23% | -100.00% | +7.77% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.63% | -96.30% | +52.67% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.49% | 30.04% | -18.55% |
Volatility
TMF vs. SPXS - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X (TMF) and Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (SPXS) have volatilities of 8.09% and 8.51%, respectively, indicating that both stocks experience similar levels of price fluctuations. This suggests that the risk associated with both stocks, as measured by volatility, is nearly the same. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | SPXS | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.09% | 8.51% | -0.42% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.01% | 26.82% | -7.81% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.76% | 35.54% | -6.78% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.75% | 50.39% | -3.64% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.92% | 53.54% | -9.62% |
TMF vs. SPXS - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.09% expense ratio, which is higher than SPXS's 1.08% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. SPXS - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.15%, less than SPXS's 4.91% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares | 4.91% | 4.93% | 6.18% | 5.66% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.51% | 1.74% | 0.58% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | 4.15% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and SPXS have a correlation of -0.20, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
SPXS has higher volatility (8.51%) compared to TMF (8.09%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs SPXS's -100.00%.
On 10-year performance, TMF leads with -16.56% vs -42.01% for SPXS. On fees, SPXS is cheaper at 1.08% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 8.09%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMF has performed better with a -16.56% return vs -42.01%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
SPXS is cheaper with a 1.08% expense ratio, compared with 1.09% for TMF.
SPXS has the higher dividend yield at 4.91%, compared with 4.15% for TMF.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while SPXS is Inverse Equities. TMF tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (300%), while SPXS tracks S&P 500 Index (-300%). Their fees differ too: 1.09% for TMF and 1.08% for SPXS.
TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.03 vs -1.38), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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