TMF vs. SPXS
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and SPXS (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while SPXS is a Inverse Equities fund tracking the S&P 500 Index (-300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -17.90%/yr vs -41.27%/yr for SPXS. At a 0.24 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 1.08%/yr for SPXS.
Performance
TMF vs. SPXS - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -10.63% return, which is significantly higher than SPXS's -24.50% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has outperformed SPXS with an annualized return of -17.90%, while SPXS has yielded a comparatively lower -41.27% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.85%
- 1M
- -5.74%
- 6M
- -11.74%
- YTD
- -10.63%
- 1Y
- -5.83%
- 3Y*
- -21.26%
- 5Y*
- -33.16%
- 10Y*
- -17.90%
SPXS
- 1D
- 2.30%
- 1M
- -3.30%
- 6M
- -20.30%
- YTD
- -24.50%
- 1Y
- -40.89%
- 3Y*
- -39.60%
- 5Y*
- -33.12%
- 10Y*
- -41.27%
TMF vs. SPXS - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.63% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares | -24.50% | -41.53% | -42.84% | -45.97% | 36.14% | -58.11% | -70.47% | -56.40% | 3.44% | -44.52% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and SPXS is -0.21, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.21 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.18 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.08 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.24 |
The correlation between TMF and SPXS shifts across timeframes, from -0.21 (1 year) to 0.24 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. SPXS — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
SPXS
TMF vs. SPXS - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (SPXS). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | SPXS | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.88 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +1.56 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.99 | 0.82 | +0.17 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.22 | -0.94 | +0.72 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.46 | -1.64 | +1.18 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. SPXS - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, smaller than the maximum SPXS drawdown of -100.00%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and SPXS.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | SPXS | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -100.00% | +7.11% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -43.64% | +17.13% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -84.13% | +28.99% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -90.11% | +1.30% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -99.56% | +6.67% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.60% | -100.00% | +7.40% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.91% | -96.30% | +52.39% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.82% | 24.98% | -12.16% |
Volatility
TMF vs. SPXS - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 8.51%, while Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (SPXS) has a volatility of 12.80%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than SPXS based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | SPXS | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.51% | 12.80% | -4.29% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.94% | 30.04% | -10.10% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.62% | 37.71% | -10.09% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.54% | 50.75% | -4.21% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.72% | 53.52% | -9.80% |
TMF vs. SPXS - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is lower than SPXS's 1.08% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. SPXS - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.42%, less than SPXS's 4.50% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares | 4.50% | 4.93% | 6.18% | 5.66% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.51% | 1.74% | 0.58% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.42% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and SPXS have a correlation of -0.21, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
SPXS has higher volatility (12.80%) compared to TMF (8.51%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs SPXS's -100.00%.
On 10-year performance, TMF leads with -17.90% vs -41.27% for SPXS. On fees, TMF is cheaper at 1.01% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 8.51%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMF has performed better with a -17.90% return vs -41.27%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TMF is cheaper with a 1.01% expense ratio, compared with 1.08% for SPXS.
SPXS has the higher dividend yield at 4.50%, compared with 4.42% for TMF.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while SPXS is Inverse Equities. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while SPXS tracks S&P 500 Index (-300%). Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 1.08% for SPXS.
TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.21 vs -1.09), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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