TMF vs. SHY
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and SHY (iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while SHY is a Government Bonds fund tracking the ICE US Treasury 1-3 Year Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -16.93%/yr vs 1.65%/yr for SHY. A 0.60 correlation means they provide meaningful diversification when combined. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.15%/yr for SHY.
Performance
TMF vs. SHY - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -5.18% return, which is significantly lower than SHY's 0.60% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed SHY with an annualized return of -16.93%, while SHY has yielded a comparatively higher 1.65% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- 0.00%
- 1M
- 7.62%
- YTD
- -5.18%
- 6M
- -5.24%
- 1Y
- -1.79%
- 3Y*
- -20.85%
- 5Y*
- -30.62%
- 10Y*
- -16.93%
SHY
- 1D
- 0.05%
- 1M
- 0.36%
- YTD
- 0.60%
- 6M
- 0.79%
- 1Y
- 3.34%
- 3Y*
- 4.16%
- 5Y*
- 1.78%
- 10Y*
- 1.65%
TMF vs. SHY - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -5.18% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.60% | 4.95% | 3.92% | 4.16% | -3.88% | -0.71% | 3.03% | 3.38% | 1.46% | 0.26% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and SHY is 0.63, which is moderate. They share some common price drivers but move independently often enough to provide real diversification benefit when combined.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.63 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.65 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.63 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.61 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.60 |
The correlation between TMF and SHY has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.60 to 0.65 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. SHY — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
SHY
TMF vs. SHY - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | SHY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -2.59 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -4.03 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.52 | -0.51 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.07 | 3.78 | -3.85 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.15 | 15.00 | -15.15 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. SHY - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than SHY's maximum drawdown of -5.71%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and SHY.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | SHY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -5.71% | -87.18% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -0.89% | -25.62% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -56.31% | -0.97% | -55.34% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -5.71% | -83.10% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -5.71% | -87.18% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.15% | -0.14% | -92.01% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.71% | -0.52% | -43.19% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.01% | 0.22% | +11.79% |
Volatility
TMF vs. SHY - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.43% compared to iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) at 0.40%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than SHY based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | SHY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.43% | 0.40% | +8.03% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.46% | 0.95% | +18.51% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.14% | 1.33% | +26.81% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.73% | 1.99% | +44.74% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.93% | 1.57% | +42.36% |
TMF vs. SHY - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than SHY's 0.15% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. SHY - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.11%, more than SHY's 3.68% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.68% | 3.81% | 3.92% | 2.99% | 1.30% | 0.26% | 0.94% | 2.12% | 1.72% | 0.98% | 0.71% | 0.54% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.11% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and SHY have a correlation of 0.63, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (8.43%) compared to SHY (0.40%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs SHY's -5.71%.
On 10-year performance, SHY leads with 1.65% vs -16.93% for TMF. On fees, SHY is cheaper at 0.15% per year. On volatility, SHY has been the lower-risk option at 0.40%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, SHY has performed better with a 1.65% return vs -16.93%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
SHY is cheaper with a 0.15% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.11%, compared with 3.68% for SHY.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while SHY is Government Bonds. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while SHY tracks ICE US Treasury 1-3 Year Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and iShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.15% for SHY.
SHY currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.53 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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