TMF vs. MELI

Last updated Jul 21, 2026

TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while MELI (MercadoLibre, Inc.) is a stock. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -17.99%/yr vs 28.13%/yr for MELI. At a correlation of -0.12, they often move in opposite directions.

Performance

TMF vs. MELI - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -11.04% return, which is significantly lower than MELI's -9.03% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed MELI with an annualized return of -17.99%, while MELI has yielded a comparatively higher 28.13% annualized return.

TMF

• 1D: -2.07%
• 1M: -9.25%
• 6M: -12.35%
• YTD: -11.04%
• 1Y: -4.28%
• 3Y*: -21.59%
• 5Y*: -33.52%
• 10Y*: -17.99%
• ALL TIME*: -6.34%

MELI

• 1D: 1.02%
• 1M: 12.06%
• 6M: -11.69%
• YTD: -9.03%
• 1Y: -24.08%
• 3Y*: 14.49%
• 5Y*: 3.40%
• 10Y*: 28.13%
• ALL TIME*: 26.51%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

TMF vs. MELI - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-11.04%	-2.94%	-35.95%	-13.01%	-72.60%	-19.80%	39.02%	34.75%	-11.01%	22.72%
MELI MercadoLibre, Inc.	-9.03%	18.46%	8.20%	85.71%	-37.24%	-19.51%	192.90%	95.30%	-6.93%	101.99%

Correlation

The correlation between TMF and MELI is 0.12, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.12
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.08
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.06
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.01
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009	-0.12

The correlation between TMF and MELI shifts across timeframes, from -0.12 (all time) to 0.12 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.

Return for Risk

TMF vs. MELI — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 9
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 9

MELI

MELI Risk / Return Rank: 20
MELI Sharpe Ratio Rank: 17
MELI Sortino Ratio Rank: 20
MELI Omega Ratio Rank: 19
MELI Calmar Ratio Rank: 21
MELI Martin Ratio Rank: 22

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

TMF vs. MELI - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	TMF	MELI	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-0.16	-0.61	+0.45
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-0.03	-0.64	+0.60
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.00	0.92	+0.08
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.16	-0.63	+0.47
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-0.32	-1.06	+0.74

TMF vs. MELI - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current TMF Sharpe Ratio is -0.16, which is higher than the MELI Sharpe Ratio of -0.61. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of TMF and MELI, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

TMF vs. MELI - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, roughly equal to the maximum MELI drawdown of -89.49%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and MELI.

Drawdown Indicators

	TMF	MELI	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-92.89%	-89.49%	-3.40%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-26.51%	-38.40%	+11.89%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-53.47%	-40.82%	-12.65%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-88.81%	-68.64%	-20.17%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-92.89%	-69.12%	-23.77%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-92.64%	-29.89%	-62.75%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-43.97%	-23.63%	-20.34%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	13.22%	22.69%	-9.47%

Volatility

TMF vs. MELI - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 7.53%, while MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) has a volatility of 8.75%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than MELI based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	TMF	MELI	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	7.53%	8.75%	-1.22%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	19.87%	29.45%	-9.58%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	27.62%	39.82%	-12.20%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	46.39%	49.77%	-3.38%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	43.72%	48.89%	-5.17%

Dividends

TMF vs. MELI - Dividend Comparison

TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.44%, while MELI has not paid dividends to shareholders.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
MELI MercadoLibre, Inc.	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.19%	0.38%	0.36%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.44%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%	0.00%	0.00%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both TMF and MELI in my portfolio?

TMF and MELI have a correlation of 0.12, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, TMF or MELI?

MELI has higher volatility (8.75%) compared to TMF (7.53%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs MELI's -89.49%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.16 vs -0.61), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.