TMF vs. ERX
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and ERX (Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while ERX is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the Energy Select Sector Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.08%/yr vs -9.49%/yr for ERX. At a correlation of -0.30, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 1.09%/yr for ERX.
Performance
TMF vs. ERX - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -11.93% return, which is significantly lower than ERX's 65.86% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed ERX with an annualized return of -18.08%, while ERX has yielded a comparatively higher -9.49% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.01%
- 1M
- -10.16%
- 6M
- -9.78%
- YTD
- -11.93%
- 1Y
- -7.67%
- 3Y*
- -21.85%
- 5Y*
- -34.00%
- 10Y*
- -18.08%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.40%
ERX
- 1D
- 1.80%
- 1M
- 19.51%
- 6M
- 47.32%
- YTD
- 65.86%
- 1Y
- 82.01%
- 3Y*
- 18.96%
- 5Y*
- 35.56%
- 10Y*
- -9.49%
- ALL TIME*
- -7.16%
TMF vs. ERX - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -11.93% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
ERX Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares | 65.86% | 2.79% | 1.09% | -12.26% | 130.58% | 111.91% | -91.60% | 17.13% | -55.94% | -11.60% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and ERX is -0.24, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.24 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.09 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.13 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.23 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.30 |
The correlation between TMF and ERX shifts across timeframes, from -0.30 (all time) to -0.09 (3 years), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. ERX — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
ERX
TMF vs. ERX - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares (ERX). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | ERX | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -2.24 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.61 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.98 | 1.30 | -0.32 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.29 | 2.75 | -3.04 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.58 | 7.03 | -7.61 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. ERX - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, smaller than the maximum ERX drawdown of -99.54%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and ERX.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | ERX | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -99.54% | +6.65% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -29.97% | +3.46% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -53.47% | -42.34% | -11.13% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -46.90% | -41.91% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -98.59% | +5.70% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.71% | -91.63% | -1.08% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.98% | -67.20% | +23.22% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 13.32% | 11.70% | +1.62% |
Volatility
TMF vs. ERX - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 7.32%, while Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares (ERX) has a volatility of 11.29%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than ERX based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | ERX | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.32% | 11.29% | -3.97% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.81% | 33.42% | -13.61% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.58% | 42.09% | -14.51% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.37% | 51.52% | -5.15% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.72% | 68.94% | -25.22% |
TMF vs. ERX - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is lower than ERX's 1.09% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. ERX - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.48%, more than ERX's 1.54% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ERX Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares | 1.54% | 2.54% | 2.94% | 3.17% | 2.23% | 2.16% | 2.35% | 1.56% | 3.10% | 0.85% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.48% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and ERX have a correlation of -0.24, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
ERX has higher volatility (11.29%) compared to TMF (7.32%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs ERX's -99.54%.
On 10-year performance, ERX leads with -9.49% vs -18.08% for TMF. On fees, TMF is cheaper at 1.01% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.32%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, ERX has performed better with a -9.49% return vs -18.08%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TMF is cheaper with a 1.01% expense ratio, compared with 1.09% for ERX.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.48%, compared with 1.54% for ERX.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while ERX is Leveraged Equities. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while ERX tracks Energy Select Sector Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 1.09% for ERX.
ERX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.96 vs -0.28), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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