TMF vs. DBO
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and DBO (Invesco DB Oil Fund) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while DBO is a Oil & Gas fund tracking the DBIQ Optimum Yield Crude Oil Index Excess Return. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.33%/yr vs 11.43%/yr for DBO. Their -0.24 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.78%/yr for DBO.
Performance
TMF vs. DBO - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -15.88% return, which is significantly lower than DBO's 66.72% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed DBO with an annualized return of -18.33%, while DBO has yielded a comparatively higher 11.43% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- 0.95%
- 1M
- -11.21%
- 6M
- -14.16%
- YTD
- -15.88%
- 1Y
- -17.67%
- 3Y*
- -18.84%
- 5Y*
- -35.05%
- 10Y*
- -18.33%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.63%
DBO
- 1D
- -5.53%
- 1M
- 17.71%
- 6M
- 53.16%
- YTD
- 66.72%
- 1Y
- 51.44%
- 3Y*
- 12.33%
- 5Y*
- 13.64%
- 10Y*
- 11.43%
- ALL TIME*
- 0.22%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $11.34M | $10.71M | $13.49M | |
| $168.22M | $133.63M | $127.70M |
TMF vs. DBO - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -15.88% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
DBO Invesco DB Oil Fund | 66.72% | -11.71% | 7.85% | -4.44% | 13.04% | 60.74% | -20.99% | 28.05% | -15.22% | 4.86% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and DBO is -0.40, meaning they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. This relationship can weaken or reverse as market conditions change.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | -0.40 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | -0.23 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | -0.18 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | -0.19 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.24 |
The correlation between TMF and DBO shifts across timeframes, from -0.40 (1 year) to -0.18 (5 years), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. DBO — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
DBO
TMF vs. DBO - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Invesco DB Oil Fund (DBO). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | DBO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.99 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.73 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.91 | 1.23 | -0.32 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.62 | 1.86 | -2.48 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.25 | 5.64 | -6.89 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. DBO - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -93.10%, roughly equal to the maximum DBO drawdown of -90.18%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and DBO.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | DBO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -93.10% | -90.18% | -2.92% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -28.69% | -27.73% | -0.96% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -50.64% | -28.20% | -22.44% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -89.14% | -37.68% | -51.46% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -93.10% | -61.69% | -31.41% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -93.04% | -56.13% | -36.91% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -44.08% | -62.20% | +18.12% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 14.21% | 9.16% | +5.05% |
Volatility
TMF vs. DBO - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 7.36%, while Invesco DB Oil Fund (DBO) has a volatility of 18.99%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than DBO based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | DBO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.36% | 18.99% | -11.63% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.96% | 34.30% | -14.34% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.08% | 38.86% | -11.78% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.37% | 33.43% | +12.94% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.71% | 32.24% | +11.47% |
TMF vs. DBO - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than DBO's 0.78% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. DBO - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.69%, more than DBO's 2.11% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DBO Invesco DB Oil Fund | 2.11% | 3.51% | 4.68% | 4.59% | 0.66% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.63% | 1.58% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.69% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and DBO have a correlation of -0.40, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
DBO has higher volatility (18.99%) compared to TMF (7.36%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -93.10% vs DBO's -90.18%.
On 10-year performance, DBO leads with 11.43% vs -18.33% for TMF. On fees, DBO is cheaper at 0.78% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.36%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, DBO has performed better with a 11.43% return vs -18.33%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
DBO is cheaper with a 0.78% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.69%, compared with 2.11% for DBO.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while DBO is Oil & Gas. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while DBO tracks DBIQ Optimum Yield Crude Oil Index Excess Return. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and Invesco. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.78% for DBO.
DBO currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.33 vs -0.66), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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