TMF vs. BTC-USD
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while BTC-USD (Bitcoin) is a cryptocurrency. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -16.93%/yr vs 56.48%/yr for BTC-USD. At a correlation of -0.01, they often move in opposite directions.
Performance
TMF vs. BTC-USD - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -5.18% return, which is significantly higher than BTC-USD's -24.33% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed BTC-USD with an annualized return of -16.93%, while BTC-USD has yielded a comparatively higher 56.48% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- 0.00%
- 1M
- 7.62%
- YTD
- -5.18%
- 6M
- -5.24%
- 1Y
- -1.79%
- 3Y*
- -20.85%
- 5Y*
- -30.62%
- 10Y*
- -16.93%
BTC-USD
- 1D
- 0.77%
- 1M
- -15.23%
- YTD
- -24.33%
- 6M
- -23.38%
- 1Y
- -37.30%
- 3Y*
- 35.99%
- 5Y*
- 11.54%
- 10Y*
- 56.48%
TMF vs. BTC-USD - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -5.18% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | -24.33% | -6.27% | 120.76% | 155.82% | -64.23% | 59.40% | 304.57% | 94.10% | -73.37% | 1,324.24% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and BTC-USD is 0.07, meaning there is essentially no relationship between their price movements. Each responds to its own set of market drivers, making them strong candidates for combining in a diversified portfolio.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.07 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.03 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.01 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.00 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Sep 30, 2012 | -0.01 |
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. BTC-USD — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
BTC-USD
TMF vs. BTC-USD - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.81 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +1.28 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 0.88 | +0.13 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.07 | -0.73 | +0.66 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.15 | -1.26 | +1.11 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. BTC-USD - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than BTC-USD's maximum drawdown of -85.30%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and BTC-USD.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -85.30% | -7.59% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -51.21% | +24.70% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -56.31% | -51.21% | -5.10% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -76.67% | -12.14% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -83.80% | -9.09% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.15% | -46.91% | -45.24% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.71% | -42.38% | -1.33% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.01% | 34.75% | -22.74% |
Volatility
TMF vs. BTC-USD - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 8.43%, while Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has a volatility of 12.14%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than BTC-USD based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.43% | 12.14% | -3.71% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.46% | 34.59% | -15.13% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.14% | 35.62% | -7.48% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.73% | 44.55% | +2.18% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.93% | 56.55% | -12.62% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and BTC-USD have a correlation of 0.07, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
BTC-USD has higher volatility (12.14%) compared to TMF (8.43%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs BTC-USD's -85.30%.
TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.06 vs -0.87), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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