SPXS vs. TMF
SPXS (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - SPXS is a Inverse Equities fund tracking the S&P 500 Index (-300%), while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, SPXS returned -41.24%/yr vs -17.81%/yr for TMF. At a 0.24 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. SPXS charges 1.08%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
SPXS vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, SPXS achieves a -24.88% return, which is significantly lower than TMF's -10.00% return. Over the past 10 years, SPXS has underperformed TMF with an annualized return of -41.24%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively higher -17.81% annualized return.
SPXS
- 1D
- 1.67%
- 1M
- -0.21%
- 6M
- -21.79%
- YTD
- -24.88%
- 1Y
- -41.05%
- 3Y*
- -39.52%
- 5Y*
- -33.62%
- 10Y*
- -41.24%
TMF
- 1D
- -0.03%
- 1M
- -6.57%
- 6M
- -13.01%
- YTD
- -10.00%
- 1Y
- -2.84%
- 3Y*
- -21.08%
- 5Y*
- -33.44%
- 10Y*
- -17.81%
SPXS vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares | -24.88% | -41.53% | -42.84% | -45.97% | 36.14% | -58.11% | -70.47% | -56.40% | 3.44% | -44.52% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.00% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between SPXS and TMF is -0.21, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.21 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.18 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.08 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.24 |
The correlation between SPXS and TMF shifts across timeframes, from -0.21 (1 year) to 0.24 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
SPXS vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
SPXS
TMF
SPXS vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (SPXS) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| SPXS | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.99 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.74 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.82 | 1.01 | -0.19 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.94 | -0.11 | -0.84 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.62 | -0.22 | -1.40 |
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Drawdowns
SPXS vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum SPXS drawdown since its inception was -100.00%, which is greater than TMF's maximum drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for SPXS and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| SPXS | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -100.00% | -92.89% | -7.11% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -43.64% | -26.51% | -17.13% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -84.13% | -55.14% | -28.99% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -90.11% | -88.81% | -1.30% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -99.56% | -92.89% | -6.67% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -100.00% | -92.55% | -7.45% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -96.31% | -43.94% | -52.37% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 25.40% | 13.06% | +12.34% |
Volatility
SPXS vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (SPXS) has a higher volatility of 10.70% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 7.49%. This indicates that SPXS's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| SPXS | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 10.70% | 7.49% | +3.21% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 30.07% | 19.82% | +10.25% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 37.65% | 27.47% | +10.18% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 50.74% | 46.49% | +4.25% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 53.50% | 43.70% | +9.80% |
SPXS vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
SPXS has a 1.08% expense ratio, which is higher than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
SPXS vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
SPXS's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.52%, more than TMF's 4.39% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares | 4.52% | 4.93% | 6.18% | 5.66% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.51% | 1.74% | 0.58% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.39% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
SPXS and TMF have a correlation of -0.21, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
SPXS has higher volatility (10.70%) compared to TMF (7.49%). In terms of maximum drawdown, SPXS dropped -100.00% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, TMF leads with -17.81% vs -41.24% for SPXS. On fees, TMF is cheaper at 1.01% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.49%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMF has performed better with a -17.81% return vs -41.24%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TMF is cheaper with a 1.01% expense ratio, compared with 1.08% for SPXS.
SPXS has the higher dividend yield at 4.52%, compared with 4.39% for TMF.
SPXS is categorized as Inverse Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. SPXS tracks S&P 500 Index (-300%), while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 1.08% for SPXS and 1.01% for TMF.
TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.10 vs -1.09), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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