PST vs. TMF

Last updated Jun 4, 2026

PST (ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - PST is a Inverse Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, PST returned 2.47%/yr vs -16.56%/yr for TMF. At a correlation of -0.91, they often move in opposite directions. PST charges 0.95%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.

Performance

PST vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury (PST) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, PST achieves a 4.57% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -6.13% return. Over the past 10 years, PST has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 2.47%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.56% annualized return.

PST

• 1D: 0.51%
• 1M: 0.80%
• YTD: 4.57%
• 6M: 6.73%
• 1Y: 1.08%
• 3Y*: 5.59%
• 5Y*: 9.21%
• 10Y*: 2.47%

TMF

• 1D: -1.14%
• 1M: 1.22%
• YTD: -6.13%
• 6M: -11.63%
• 1Y: 0.90%
• 3Y*: -20.78%
• 5Y*: -30.52%
• 10Y*: -16.56%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

PST vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
PST ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury	4.57%	-4.42%	12.27%	3.17%	38.55%	4.01%	-18.67%	-11.03%	1.72%	-4.52%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-6.13%	-2.94%	-35.95%	-13.01%	-72.60%	-19.80%	39.02%	34.75%	-11.01%	22.72%

Correlation

The correlation between PST and TMF is -0.91, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.91
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	-0.90
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	-0.90
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	-0.90
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 17, 2009	-0.91

The correlation between PST and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.91 to -0.90 - a consistent structural relationship.

PST vs. TMF - Sectors Allocation Comparison

Sectors	PST	TMF
Financial Services	69.6%	18.7%
Basic Materials	-	-
Communication Services	-	-
Consumer Cyclical	-	-
Consumer Defensive	-	-
Energy	-	-
Healthcare	-	-
Industrials	-	-
Real Estate	-	-
Technology	-	-
Utilities	-	-

Return for Risk

PST vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

PST

PST Risk / Return Rank: 10
PST Sharpe Ratio Rank: 10
PST Sortino Ratio Rank: 9
PST Omega Ratio Rank: 9
PST Calmar Ratio Rank: 10
PST Martin Ratio Rank: 10

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 9
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 9

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

PST vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury (PST) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	PST	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	0.11	0.03	+0.08
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	0.23	0.25	-0.02
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.03	1.03	0.00
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	0.15	0.03	+0.12
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	0.26	0.08	+0.18
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

PST vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current PST Sharpe Ratio is 0.11, which is higher than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of 0.03. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of PST and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	PST	TMF	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.11	0.03	+0.08
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.59	-0.66	+1.25
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.19	-0.38	+0.56
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	-0.37	-0.14	-0.24

Drawdowns

PST vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum PST drawdown since its inception was -79.25%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for PST and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	PST	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-79.25%	-92.89%	+13.64%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-7.25%	-26.51%	+19.26%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-16.19%	-56.31%	+40.12%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-16.19%	-88.81%	+72.62%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-36.07%	-92.89%	+56.82%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-64.13%	-92.23%	+28.10%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-61.48%	-43.63%	-17.85%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	4.16%	11.49%	-7.33%

Volatility

PST vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury (PST) is 3.19%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 8.09%. This indicates that PST experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	PST	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	3.19%	8.09%	-4.90%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	6.75%	19.01%	-12.26%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	9.62%	28.76%	-19.14%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	15.60%	46.75%	-31.15%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	13.32%	43.92%	-30.60%

PST vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison

PST has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.

Dividends

PST vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

PST's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.08%, less than TMF's 4.15% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
PST ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury	3.08%	3.47%	3.61%	3.69%	0.02%	0.00%	0.11%	1.85%	0.66%	0.00%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.15%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both PST and TMF in my portfolio?

PST and TMF have a correlation of -0.91, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, PST or TMF?

TMF has higher volatility (8.09%) compared to PST (3.19%). In terms of maximum drawdown, PST dropped -79.25% vs TMF's -92.89%.

Which ETF is better, PST or TMF?

On 10-year performance, PST leads with 2.47% vs -16.56% for TMF. On fees, PST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, PST has been the lower-risk option at 3.19%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, PST or TMF?

Over the 10-year period, PST has performed better with a 2.47% return vs -16.56%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, PST or TMF?

PST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, PST or TMF?

TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.15%, compared with 3.08% for PST.

What is the main difference between PST and TMF?

PST is categorized as Inverse Bonds, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. PST tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for PST and 1.01% for TMF.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

PST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.11 vs 0.03), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.