PST vs. TMF
PST (ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - PST is a Inverse Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, PST returned 2.73%/yr vs -16.87%/yr for TMF. At a correlation of -0.91, they often move in opposite directions. PST charges 0.95%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
PST vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, PST achieves a 4.69% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -4.67% return. Over the past 10 years, PST has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 2.73%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.87% annualized return.
PST
- 1D
- -0.27%
- 1M
- -0.60%
- YTD
- 4.69%
- 6M
- 5.06%
- 1Y
- 3.06%
- 3Y*
- 5.23%
- 5Y*
- 9.44%
- 10Y*
- 2.73%
TMF
- 1D
- -0.62%
- 1M
- 4.96%
- YTD
- -4.67%
- 6M
- -5.95%
- 1Y
- -2.80%
- 3Y*
- -21.07%
- 5Y*
- -31.33%
- 10Y*
- -16.87%
PST vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PST ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury | 4.69% | -4.42% | 12.27% | 3.17% | 38.55% | 4.01% | -18.67% | -11.03% | 1.72% | -4.52% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -4.67% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between PST and TMF is -0.90, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.90 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.90 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.90 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.90 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.91 |
The correlation between PST and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.91 to -0.90 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
PST vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
PST
TMF
PST vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury (PST) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| PST | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.43 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.47 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.06 | 1.01 | +0.05 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.45 | -0.11 | +0.55 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.80 | -0.23 | +1.03 |
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Drawdowns
PST vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum PST drawdown since its inception was -79.25%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for PST and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| PST | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -79.25% | -92.89% | +13.64% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -6.90% | -26.51% | +19.61% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -16.19% | -56.09% | +39.90% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -16.19% | -88.81% | +72.62% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -36.07% | -92.89% | +56.82% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -64.08% | -92.11% | +28.03% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -61.48% | -43.76% | -17.72% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 3.83% | 12.26% | -8.43% |
Volatility
PST vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury (PST) is 2.73%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 6.50%. This indicates that PST experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| PST | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 2.73% | 6.50% | -3.77% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 7.03% | 19.35% | -12.32% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 9.49% | 27.91% | -18.42% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 15.59% | 46.59% | -31.00% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 13.30% | 43.86% | -30.56% |
PST vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
PST has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
PST vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
PST's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.08%, less than TMF's 4.09% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PST ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.08% | 3.47% | 3.61% | 3.69% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.11% | 1.85% | 0.66% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.09% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
PST and TMF have a correlation of -0.90, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (6.50%) compared to PST (2.73%). In terms of maximum drawdown, PST dropped -79.25% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, PST leads with 2.73% vs -16.87% for TMF. On fees, PST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, PST has been the lower-risk option at 2.73%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, PST has performed better with a 2.73% return vs -16.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
PST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.09%, compared with 3.08% for PST.
PST is categorized as Inverse Bonds, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. PST tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for PST and 1.01% for TMF.
PST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.32 vs -0.10), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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