ORCS vs. TMF

Last updated Jul 12, 2026

ORCS (Direxion Daily ORCL Bear 1X ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - ORCS is a Inverse Equities fund actively managed by Direxion, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). ORCS is actively managed, while TMF is passively managed. At a correlation of -0.16, they often move in opposite directions. ORCS charges 0.97%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.

Performance

ORCS vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily ORCL Bear 1X ETF (ORCS) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, ORCS achieves a 18.11% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -8.94% return.

ORCS

• 1D: 2.16%
• 1M: 29.15%
• 6M: 20.88%
• YTD: 18.11%
• 1Y: —
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

TMF

• 1D: -0.03%
• 1M: -4.85%
• 6M: -10.90%
• YTD: -8.94%
• 1Y: -4.05%
• 3Y*: -19.45%
• 5Y*: -32.83%
• 10Y*: -18.06%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

ORCS vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025
ORCS Direxion Daily ORCL Bear 1X ETF	18.11%	11.07%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-8.94%	-5.37%

Correlation

The correlation between ORCS and TMF is -0.16, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Nov 19, 2025	-0.16

Return for Risk

ORCS vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

ORCS

Risk / return metrics aren't available yet — we need at least 12 months of trading data to calculate them.

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 7
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 7
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 7
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 7
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 7
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 6

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

ORCS vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily ORCL Bear 1X ETF (ORCS) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	ORCS	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	—	-0.29	—
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	—	-0.24	—
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	—	0.97	—
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	—	-0.31	—
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	—	-0.64	—

Drawdowns

ORCS vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum ORCS drawdown since its inception was -50.25%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for ORCS and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	ORCS	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-50.25%	-92.89%	+42.64%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	—	-26.51%	—
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	—	-55.14%	—
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	—	-88.81%	—
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-92.89%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-15.50%	-92.46%	+76.96%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-16.45%	-43.90%	+27.45%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	—	12.78%	—

Volatility

Volatility by Period

	ORCS	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	—	8.37%	—
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	—	19.92%	—
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	59.53%	27.83%	+31.70%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	59.53%	46.53%	+13.00%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	59.53%	43.76%	+15.77%

ORCS vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison

ORCS has a 0.97% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.

Dividends

ORCS vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

ORCS's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 1.21%, less than TMF's 4.34% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
ORCS Direxion Daily ORCL Bear 1X ETF	1.21%	0.26%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.34%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both ORCS and TMF in my portfolio?

ORCS and TMF have a correlation of -0.16, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which ETF is better, ORCS or TMF?

On fees, ORCS is cheaper at 0.97% per year. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF is cheaper, ORCS or TMF?

ORCS is cheaper with a 0.97% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, ORCS or TMF?

TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.34%, compared with 1.21% for ORCS.

What is the main difference between ORCS and TMF?

ORCS is categorized as Inverse Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. Their fees differ too: 0.97% for ORCS and 1.01% for TMF.