NVDD vs. TMF

Last updated Aug 4, 2026

NVDD (Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - NVDD is a Inverse Equities fund actively managed by Direxion, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). NVDD is actively managed, while TMF is passively managed. Over the past year, NVDD returned -20.12% vs -17.67% for TMF. Their -0.01 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. Both charge a 1.01% expense ratio.

Performance

NVDD vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares (NVDD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, NVDD achieves a -13.43% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -15.88% return.

NVDD

• 1D: -2.79%
• 1M: -6.62%
• 6M: -13.93%
• YTD: -13.43%
• 1Y: -20.12%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —
• ALL TIME*: -48.64%

TMF

• 1D: 0.95%
• 1M: -11.21%
• 6M: -14.16%
• YTD: -15.88%
• 1Y: -17.67%
• 3Y*: -18.84%
• 5Y*: -35.05%
• 10Y*: -18.33%
• ALL TIME*: -6.63%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Liquidity Comparison

Position	Avg. Volume Value (2W)	Avg. Volume Value (1M)	Avg. Volume Value (3M)
NVDD Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares	$6.44M	$5.40M	$4.86M
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	$168.22M	$133.63M	$127.70M

NVDD vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023
NVDD Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares	-13.43%	-38.72%	-69.77%	-8.97%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-15.88%	-2.94%	-35.95%	11.06%

Correlation

The correlation between NVDD and TMF is -0.02, meaning there was essentially no consistent relationship between their historical price movements. Each responded to its own set of market drivers.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most.	-0.02
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Sep 13, 2023	-0.01

Return for Risk

NVDD vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare historical risk-adjusted metric ranks over the past 12 months.

NVDD

NVDD Risk / Return Rank: 4
NVDD Sharpe Ratio Rank: 5
NVDD Sortino Ratio Rank: 5
NVDD Omega Ratio Rank: 5
NVDD Calmar Ratio Rank: 4
NVDD Martin Ratio Rank: 2

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 4
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 4
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 4
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 4
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 4
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 3

The rank (0–100) uses a weighted average of the Sharpe, Sortino, Omega, Calmar, and Martin percentile ranks for the trailing 12 months. Higher means stronger historical risk-adjusted performance within the peer group.

NVDD vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares (NVDD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	NVDD	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-0.55	-0.66	+0.10
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-0.61	-0.80	+0.20
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.93	0.91	+0.02
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.64	-0.62	-0.02
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.34	-1.25	-0.09

NVDD vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current NVDD Sharpe Ratio is -0.55, which is comparable to the TMF Sharpe Ratio of -0.66. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of NVDD and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

NVDD vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum NVDD drawdown since its inception was -88.34%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -93.10%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for NVDD and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	NVDD	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-88.34%	-93.10%	+4.76%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-31.63%	-28.69%	-2.94%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	—	-50.64%	—
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	—	-89.14%	—
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-93.10%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-86.96%	-93.04%	+6.08%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-68.05%	-44.08%	-23.97%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	15.10%	14.21%	+0.89%

Volatility

NVDD vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares (NVDD) has a higher volatility of 12.08% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 7.36%. This indicates that NVDD's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	NVDD	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	12.08%	7.36%	+4.72%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	28.46%	19.96%	+8.50%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	36.47%	27.08%	+9.39%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	47.06%	46.37%	+0.69%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	47.06%	43.71%	+3.35%

NVDD vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison

Both NVDD and TMF have an expense ratio of 1.01%.

Dividends

NVDD vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

NVDD's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.77%, less than TMF's 4.69% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
NVDD Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares	3.77%	4.19%	4.83%	1.31%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.69%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both NVDD and TMF in my portfolio?

NVDD and TMF have a correlation of -0.02, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, NVDD or TMF?

NVDD has higher volatility (12.08%) compared to TMF (7.36%). In terms of maximum drawdown, NVDD dropped -88.34% vs TMF's -93.10%.

Which ETF is better, NVDD or TMF?

On 1-year performance, TMF leads with -17.67% vs -20.12% for NVDD. Both ETFs have the same 1.01% expense ratio. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.36%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, NVDD or TMF?

Over the 1-year period, TMF has performed better with a -17.67% return vs -20.12%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, NVDD or TMF?

NVDD and TMF have the same expense ratio: 1.01% per year.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, NVDD or TMF?

TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.69%, compared with 3.77% for NVDD.

What is the main difference between NVDD and TMF?

NVDD is categorized as Inverse Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

NVDD currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.55 vs -0.66), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.