MUD vs. TMF

Last updated Jul 15, 2026

MUD (Direxion Daily MU Bear 1X Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - MUD is a Inverse Equities fund actively managed by Direxion, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). MUD is actively managed, while TMF is passively managed. Over the past year, MUD returned -92.87% vs -5.12% for TMF. At a correlation of -0.02, they often move in opposite directions. MUD charges 0.97%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.

Performance

MUD vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily MU Bear 1X Shares (MUD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, MUD achieves a -80.49% return, which is significantly lower than TMF's -10.33% return.

MUD

• 1D: -4.98%
• 1M: -8.95%
• 6M: -76.32%
• YTD: -80.49%
• 1Y: -92.87%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

TMF

• 1D: 0.34%
• 1M: -5.43%
• 6M: -11.84%
• YTD: -10.33%
• 1Y: -5.12%
• 3Y*: -21.17%
• 5Y*: -33.53%
• 10Y*: -17.87%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

MUD vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024
MUD Direxion Daily MU Bear 1X Shares	-80.49%	-78.75%	19.12%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-10.33%	-2.94%	-21.82%

Correlation

The correlation between MUD and TMF is -0.01, meaning there is essentially no relationship between their price movements. Each responds to its own set of market drivers, making them strong candidates for combining in a diversified portfolio.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.01
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Oct 10, 2024	-0.02

Return for Risk

MUD vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

MUD

MUD Risk / Return Rank: 1
MUD Sharpe Ratio Rank: 0
MUD Sortino Ratio Rank: 0
MUD Omega Ratio Rank: 0
MUD Calmar Ratio Rank: 0
MUD Martin Ratio Rank: 2

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 7
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 7
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 7
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 7
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 7
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 7

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

MUD vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily MU Bear 1X Shares (MUD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	MUD	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-1.23	-0.19	-1.04
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-3.70	-0.08	-3.62
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.60	0.99	-0.40
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.98	-0.19	-0.79
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.36	-0.40	-0.97

MUD vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current MUD Sharpe Ratio is -1.23, which is lower than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of -0.19. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of MUD and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

MUD vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum MUD drawdown since its inception was -97.03%, roughly equal to the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for MUD and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	MUD	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-97.03%	-92.89%	-4.14%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-94.76%	-26.51%	-68.25%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	—	-55.14%	—
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	—	-88.81%	—
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-92.89%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-96.41%	-92.58%	-3.83%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-53.04%	-43.92%	-9.12%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	67.99%	12.91%	+55.08%

Volatility

MUD vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

Direxion Daily MU Bear 1X Shares (MUD) has a higher volatility of 32.91% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 7.49%. This indicates that MUD's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	MUD	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	32.91%	7.49%	+25.42%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	64.59%	19.84%	+44.75%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	76.00%	27.57%	+48.43%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	71.22%	46.51%	+24.71%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	71.22%	43.72%	+27.50%

MUD vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison

MUD has a 0.97% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.

Dividends

MUD vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

MUD's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 12.55%, more than TMF's 4.40% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
MUD Direxion Daily MU Bear 1X Shares	12.55%	9.21%	0.47%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.40%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both MUD and TMF in my portfolio?

MUD and TMF have a correlation of -0.01, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, MUD or TMF?

MUD has higher volatility (32.91%) compared to TMF (7.49%). In terms of maximum drawdown, MUD dropped -97.03% vs TMF's -92.89%.

Which ETF is better, MUD or TMF?

On 1-year performance, TMF leads with -5.12% vs -92.87% for MUD. On fees, MUD is cheaper at 0.97% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.49%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, MUD or TMF?

Over the 1-year period, TMF has performed better with a -5.12% return vs -92.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, MUD or TMF?

MUD is cheaper with a 0.97% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, MUD or TMF?

MUD has the higher dividend yield at 12.55%, compared with 4.40% for TMF.

What is the main difference between MUD and TMF?

MUD is categorized as Inverse Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. Their fees differ too: 0.97% for MUD and 1.01% for TMF.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.19 vs -1.23), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.