MELI vs. TMF

Last updated Jun 9, 2026

MELI (MercadoLibre, Inc.) is a stock, while TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Over the past 10 years, MELI returned 28.28%/yr vs -17.04%/yr for TMF. At a correlation of -0.12, they often move in opposite directions.

Performance

MELI vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, MELI achieves a -19.97% return, which is significantly lower than TMF's -8.42% return. Over the past 10 years, MELI has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 28.28%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -17.04% annualized return.

MELI

• 1D: 0.26%
• 1M: -1.26%
• YTD: -19.97%
• 6M: -22.81%
• 1Y: -35.06%
• 3Y*: 10.08%
• 5Y*: 4.13%
• 10Y*: 28.28%

TMF

• 1D: -1.45%
• 1M: -4.55%
• YTD: -8.42%
• 6M: -10.21%
• 1Y: -2.46%
• 3Y*: -21.29%
• 5Y*: -31.41%
• 10Y*: -17.04%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

MELI vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
MELI MercadoLibre, Inc.	-19.97%	18.46%	8.20%	85.71%	-37.24%	-19.51%	192.90%	95.30%	-6.93%	101.99%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-8.42%	-2.94%	-35.95%	-13.01%	-72.60%	-19.80%	39.02%	34.75%	-11.01%	22.72%

Correlation

The correlation between MELI and TMF is 0.10, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.10
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.09
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.05
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.00
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 17, 2009	-0.12

The correlation between MELI and TMF shifts across timeframes, from -0.12 (all time) to 0.10 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.

Return for Risk

MELI vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

MELI

MELI Risk / Return Rank: 8
MELI Sharpe Ratio Rank: 7
MELI Sortino Ratio Rank: 10
MELI Omega Ratio Rank: 9
MELI Calmar Ratio Rank: 8
MELI Martin Ratio Rank: 5

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 8
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 8

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

MELI vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	MELI	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-0.89	-0.09	-0.81
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-1.14	0.07	-1.22
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.85	1.01	-0.16
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.86	-0.09	-0.77
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.54	-0.21	-1.33
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

MELI vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current MELI Sharpe Ratio is -0.89, which is lower than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of -0.09. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of MELI and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	MELI	TMF	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.89	-0.09	-0.81
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.08	-0.68	+0.76
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.58	-0.39	+0.97
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	0.44	-0.14	+0.58

Drawdowns

MELI vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum MELI drawdown since its inception was -89.49%, roughly equal to the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for MELI and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	MELI	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-89.49%	-92.89%	+3.40%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-40.82%	-26.51%	-14.31%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-40.82%	-56.31%	+15.49%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-68.64%	-88.81%	+20.17%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-69.12%	-92.89%	+23.77%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-38.32%	-92.42%	+54.10%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-23.58%	-43.66%	+20.08%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	22.74%	11.70%	+11.04%

Volatility

MELI vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) has a higher volatility of 17.04% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 7.77%. This indicates that MELI's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	MELI	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	17.04%	7.77%	+9.27%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	30.13%	19.06%	+11.07%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	39.42%	28.25%	+11.17%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	49.68%	46.72%	+2.96%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	48.89%	43.92%	+4.97%

Dividends

MELI vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

MELI has not paid dividends to shareholders, while TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.26%.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
MELI MercadoLibre, Inc.	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.19%	0.38%	0.36%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.26%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%	0.00%	0.00%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both MELI and TMF in my portfolio?

MELI and TMF have a correlation of 0.10, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, MELI or TMF?

MELI has higher volatility (17.04%) compared to TMF (7.77%). In terms of maximum drawdown, MELI dropped -89.49% vs TMF's -92.89%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.09 vs -0.89), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.