GLD vs. TMF
GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - GLD is a Gold fund tracking the LBMA Gold Price PM, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, GLD returned 12.33%/yr vs -16.93%/yr for TMF. At a 0.21 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. GLD charges 0.40%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
GLD vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, GLD achieves a 0.06% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -5.18% return. Over the past 10 years, GLD has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 12.33%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.93% annualized return.
GLD
- 1D
- 2.59%
- 1M
- -4.97%
- YTD
- 0.06%
- 6M
- 0.19%
- 1Y
- 25.38%
- 3Y*
- 29.73%
- 5Y*
- 18.31%
- 10Y*
- 12.33%
TMF
- 1D
- 0.00%
- 1M
- 7.62%
- YTD
- -5.18%
- 6M
- -5.24%
- 1Y
- -1.79%
- 3Y*
- -20.85%
- 5Y*
- -30.62%
- 10Y*
- -16.93%
GLD vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.06% | 63.68% | 26.66% | 12.69% | -0.77% | -4.15% | 24.81% | 17.86% | -1.94% | 12.81% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -5.18% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between GLD and TMF is 0.17, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.17 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.18 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.24 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.30 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.21 |
The correlation between GLD and TMF shifts across timeframes, from 0.17 (1 year) to 0.30 (10 years), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
GLD vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
GLD
TMF
GLD vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| GLD | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.99 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +1.19 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.19 | 1.01 | +0.18 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 1.04 | -0.07 | +1.11 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 2.97 | -0.15 | +3.12 |
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Drawdowns
GLD vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum GLD drawdown since its inception was -45.56%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for GLD and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| GLD | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -45.56% | -92.89% | +47.33% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -24.46% | -26.51% | +2.05% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -24.46% | -56.31% | +31.85% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -24.46% | -88.81% | +64.35% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -24.46% | -92.89% | +68.43% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -20.03% | -92.15% | +72.12% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -16.16% | -43.71% | +27.55% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 8.59% | 12.01% | -3.42% |
Volatility
GLD vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) have volatilities of 8.37% and 8.43%, respectively, indicating that both stocks experience similar levels of price fluctuations. This suggests that the risk associated with both stocks, as measured by volatility, is nearly the same. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| GLD | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.37% | 8.43% | -0.06% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 24.21% | 19.46% | +4.75% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.49% | 28.14% | -0.65% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 18.26% | 46.73% | -28.47% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 16.10% | 43.93% | -27.83% |
GLD vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
GLD has a 0.40% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
GLD vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
GLD has not paid dividends to shareholders, while TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.11%.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.11% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
GLD and TMF have a correlation of 0.17, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (8.43%) compared to GLD (8.37%). In terms of maximum drawdown, GLD dropped -45.56% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, GLD leads with 12.33% vs -16.93% for TMF. On fees, GLD is cheaper at 0.40% per year. Their volatility is very similar. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, GLD has performed better with a 12.33% return vs -16.93%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
GLD is cheaper with a 0.40% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.11%, compared with 0.00% for GLD.
GLD is categorized as Gold, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. GLD tracks LBMA Gold Price PM, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: State Street and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.40% for GLD and 1.01% for TMF.
GLD currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.93 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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