CAPE vs. UGA
CAPE (iPath Shiller CAPE ETN) and UGA (United States Gasoline Fund LP) are both exchange-traded funds - CAPE is a Global Equities fund tracking the Shiller Barclays CAPE US Core Sector Index, while UGA is a Oil & Gas fund tracking the Front Month Unleaded Gasoline. Both are passively managed. Over the past 3 years, CAPE returned 11.89%/yr vs 18.95%/yr for UGA. At a 0.03 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. CAPE charges 0.45%/yr vs 0.75%/yr for UGA.
Performance
CAPE vs. UGA - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, CAPE achieves a -0.06% return, which is significantly lower than UGA's 64.09% return.
CAPE
- 1D
- 1.38%
- 1M
- -0.99%
- YTD
- -0.06%
- 6M
- -0.35%
- 1Y
- 3.99%
- 3Y*
- 11.89%
- 5Y*
- —
- 10Y*
- —
UGA
- 1D
- -1.12%
- 1M
- -12.11%
- YTD
- 64.09%
- 6M
- 60.42%
- 1Y
- 59.74%
- 3Y*
- 18.95%
- 5Y*
- 22.69%
- 10Y*
- 14.31%
CAPE vs. UGA - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAPE iPath Shiller CAPE ETN | -0.06% | 9.10% | 14.40% | 27.65% | -15.28% |
UGA United States Gasoline Fund LP | 64.09% | -2.00% | 3.77% | 1.27% | 7.17% |
Correlation
The correlation between CAPE and UGA is -0.25, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.25 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 4, 2022 | 0.03 |
The correlation between CAPE and UGA shifts across timeframes, from -0.25 (1 year) to 0.03 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
CAPE vs. UGA — Risk / Return Rank
CAPE
UGA
CAPE vs. UGA - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for iPath Shiller CAPE ETN (CAPE) and United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| CAPE | UGA | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.37 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.65 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.07 | 1.30 | -0.23 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.41 | 3.17 | -2.75 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 1.46 | 9.39 | -7.93 |
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Drawdowns
CAPE vs. UGA - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum CAPE drawdown since its inception was -22.07%, smaller than the maximum UGA drawdown of -86.59%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for CAPE and UGA.
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Drawdown Indicators
| CAPE | UGA | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -22.07% | -86.59% | +64.52% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -9.68% | -18.96% | +9.28% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -14.32% | -26.68% | +12.36% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | — | -38.11% | — |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | — | -75.89% | — |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -3.24% | -18.05% | +14.81% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -4.90% | -36.69% | +31.79% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 2.73% | 6.43% | -3.70% |
Volatility
CAPE vs. UGA - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for iPath Shiller CAPE ETN (CAPE) is 3.60%, while United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA) has a volatility of 9.24%. This indicates that CAPE experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than UGA based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| CAPE | UGA | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 3.60% | 9.24% | -5.64% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 8.60% | 30.57% | -21.97% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 11.14% | 35.22% | -24.08% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 16.89% | 34.45% | -17.56% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 16.89% | 37.22% | -20.33% |
CAPE vs. UGA - Expense Ratio Comparison
CAPE has a 0.45% expense ratio, which is lower than UGA's 0.75% expense ratio.
Dividends
CAPE vs. UGA - Dividend Comparison
CAPE's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 1.38%, while UGA has not paid dividends to shareholders.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAPE iPath Shiller CAPE ETN | 1.38% | 1.39% | 1.23% | 1.01% | 0.80% |
UGA United States Gasoline Fund LP | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
CAPE and UGA have a correlation of -0.25, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UGA has higher volatility (9.24%) compared to CAPE (3.60%). In terms of maximum drawdown, CAPE dropped -22.07% vs UGA's -86.59%.
On 3-year performance, UGA leads with 18.95% vs 11.89% for CAPE. On fees, CAPE is cheaper at 0.45% per year. On volatility, CAPE has been the lower-risk option at 3.60%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 3-year period, UGA has performed better with a 18.95% return vs 11.89%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
CAPE is cheaper with a 0.45% expense ratio, compared with 0.75% for UGA.
CAPE has the higher dividend yield at 1.38%, compared with 0.00% for UGA.
CAPE is categorized as Global Equities, while UGA is Oil & Gas. CAPE tracks Shiller Barclays CAPE US Core Sector Index, while UGA tracks Front Month Unleaded Gasoline. They also come from different issuers: Barclays Capital and Concierge Technologies. Their fees differ too: 0.45% for CAPE and 0.75% for UGA.
UGA currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.73 vs 0.36), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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