BTC-USD vs. TMF
BTC-USD (Bitcoin) is a cryptocurrency, while TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Over the past 10 years, BTC-USD returned 56.48%/yr vs -16.93%/yr for TMF. At a correlation of -0.01, they often move in opposite directions.
Performance
BTC-USD vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, BTC-USD achieves a -24.33% return, which is significantly lower than TMF's -5.18% return. Over the past 10 years, BTC-USD has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 56.48%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.93% annualized return.
BTC-USD
- 1D
- 0.77%
- 1M
- -15.23%
- YTD
- -24.33%
- 6M
- -23.38%
- 1Y
- -37.30%
- 3Y*
- 35.99%
- 5Y*
- 11.54%
- 10Y*
- 56.48%
TMF
- 1D
- 0.00%
- 1M
- 7.62%
- YTD
- -5.18%
- 6M
- -5.24%
- 1Y
- -1.79%
- 3Y*
- -20.85%
- 5Y*
- -30.62%
- 10Y*
- -16.93%
BTC-USD vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC-USD Bitcoin | -24.33% | -6.27% | 120.76% | 155.82% | -64.23% | 59.40% | 304.57% | 94.10% | -73.37% | 1,324.24% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -5.18% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between BTC-USD and TMF is 0.07, meaning there is essentially no relationship between their price movements. Each responds to its own set of market drivers, making them strong candidates for combining in a diversified portfolio.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.07 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.03 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.01 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.00 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Sep 30, 2012 | -0.01 |
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Return for Risk
BTC-USD vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
BTC-USD
TMF
BTC-USD vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| BTC-USD | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.81 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.28 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.88 | 1.01 | -0.13 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.73 | -0.07 | -0.66 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.26 | -0.15 | -1.11 |
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Drawdowns
BTC-USD vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum BTC-USD drawdown since its inception was -85.30%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for BTC-USD and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| BTC-USD | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -85.30% | -92.89% | +7.59% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -51.21% | -26.51% | -24.70% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -51.21% | -56.31% | +5.10% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -76.67% | -88.81% | +12.14% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -83.80% | -92.89% | +9.09% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -46.91% | -92.15% | +45.24% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -42.38% | -43.71% | +1.33% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 34.75% | 12.01% | +22.74% |
Volatility
BTC-USD vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has a higher volatility of 12.14% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 8.43%. This indicates that BTC-USD's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| BTC-USD | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 12.14% | 8.43% | +3.71% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 34.59% | 19.46% | +15.13% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 35.62% | 28.14% | +7.48% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 44.55% | 46.73% | -2.18% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 56.55% | 43.93% | +12.62% |
Frequently Asked Questions
BTC-USD and TMF have a correlation of 0.07, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
BTC-USD has higher volatility (12.14%) compared to TMF (8.43%). In terms of maximum drawdown, BTC-USD dropped -85.30% vs TMF's -92.89%.
TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.06 vs -0.87), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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