AIBD vs. TMF

Last updated Jul 17, 2026

AIBD (Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - AIBD is a Inverse Equities fund tracking the Solactive US AI & Big Data Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past year, AIBD returned -39.60% vs -2.84% for TMF. At a correlation of -0.05, they often move in opposite directions. AIBD charges 1.05%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.

Performance

AIBD vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X Shares (AIBD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, AIBD achieves a -26.00% return, which is significantly lower than TMF's -10.00% return.

AIBD

• 1D: 5.39%
• 1M: 9.76%
• 6M: -24.63%
• YTD: -26.00%
• 1Y: -39.60%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

TMF

• 1D: -0.03%
• 1M: -6.57%
• 6M: -13.01%
• YTD: -10.00%
• 1Y: -2.84%
• 3Y*: -21.08%
• 5Y*: -33.44%
• 10Y*: -17.81%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

AIBD vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024
AIBD Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X Shares	-26.00%	-49.15%	-34.56%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-10.00%	-2.94%	-14.57%

Correlation

The correlation between AIBD and TMF is -0.14, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.14
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since May 15, 2024	-0.05

Return for Risk

AIBD vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

AIBD

AIBD Risk / Return Rank: 3
AIBD Sharpe Ratio Rank: 3
AIBD Sortino Ratio Rank: 4
AIBD Omega Ratio Rank: 4
AIBD Calmar Ratio Rank: 4
AIBD Martin Ratio Rank: 2

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 8
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 8

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

AIBD vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X Shares (AIBD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	AIBD	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-0.72	-0.10	-0.62
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-0.91	0.05	-0.95
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.90	1.01	-0.10
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.68	-0.11	-0.57
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.41	-0.22	-1.19

AIBD vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current AIBD Sharpe Ratio is -0.72, which is lower than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of -0.10. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of AIBD and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

AIBD vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum AIBD drawdown since its inception was -82.11%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for AIBD and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	AIBD	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-82.11%	-92.89%	+10.78%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-58.75%	-26.51%	-32.24%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	—	-55.14%	—
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	—	-88.81%	—
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-92.89%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-77.48%	-92.55%	+15.07%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-49.73%	-43.94%	-5.79%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	28.63%	13.06%	+15.57%

Volatility

AIBD vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X Shares (AIBD) has a higher volatility of 15.87% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 7.49%. This indicates that AIBD's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	AIBD	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	15.87%	7.49%	+8.38%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	42.24%	19.82%	+22.42%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	54.86%	27.47%	+27.39%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	57.20%	46.49%	+10.71%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	57.20%	43.70%	+13.50%

AIBD vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison

AIBD has a 1.05% expense ratio, which is higher than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.

Dividends

AIBD vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

AIBD's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.41%, less than TMF's 4.39% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
AIBD Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X Shares	3.41%	4.37%	3.58%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.39%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both AIBD and TMF in my portfolio?

AIBD and TMF have a correlation of -0.14, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, AIBD or TMF?

AIBD has higher volatility (15.87%) compared to TMF (7.49%). In terms of maximum drawdown, AIBD dropped -82.11% vs TMF's -92.89%.

Which ETF is better, AIBD or TMF?

On 1-year performance, TMF leads with -2.84% vs -39.60% for AIBD. On fees, TMF is cheaper at 1.01% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.49%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, AIBD or TMF?

Over the 1-year period, TMF has performed better with a -2.84% return vs -39.60%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, AIBD or TMF?

TMF is cheaper with a 1.01% expense ratio, compared with 1.05% for AIBD.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, AIBD or TMF?

TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.39%, compared with 3.41% for AIBD.

What is the main difference between AIBD and TMF?

AIBD is categorized as Inverse Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. AIBD tracks Solactive US AI & Big Data Index, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 1.05% for AIBD and 1.01% for TMF.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.10 vs -0.72), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.