VFORX vs. VTHR

Last updated Jun 14, 2026

VFORX (Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund) and VTHR (Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF) are both funds - VFORX is a Target Retirement Date fund managed by Vanguard, while VTHR is a Large Cap Blend Equities fund tracking the Russell 3000 Index. Over the past 10 years, VFORX returned 10.63%/yr vs 14.94%/yr for VTHR. Their correlation of 0.92 suggests significant overlap in exposure. VFORX charges 0.08%/yr vs 0.07%/yr for VTHR.

Performance

VFORX vs. VTHR - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund (VFORX) and Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF (VTHR). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, VFORX achieves a 8.11% return, which is significantly lower than VTHR's 9.46% return. Over the past 10 years, VFORX has underperformed VTHR with an annualized return of 10.63%, while VTHR has yielded a comparatively higher 14.94% annualized return.

VFORX

• 1D: 1.91%
• 1M: -0.18%
• YTD: 8.11%
• 6M: 8.81%
• 1Y: 21.22%
• 3Y*: 16.17%
• 5Y*: 8.20%
• 10Y*: 10.63%

VTHR

• 1D: 0.61%
• 1M: -0.28%
• YTD: 9.46%
• 6M: 9.47%
• 1Y: 25.83%
• 3Y*: 20.45%
• 5Y*: 12.17%
• 10Y*: 14.94%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

VFORX vs. VTHR - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
VFORX Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund	8.11%	18.77%	12.90%	18.56%	-17.00%	14.55%	15.48%	23.86%	-7.32%	18.45%
VTHR Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF	9.46%	16.99%	23.57%	25.92%	-19.20%	25.49%	20.93%	30.82%	-5.65%	21.06%

Correlation

The correlation between VFORX and VTHR is 0.95 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.95
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.94
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.95
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.94
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Sep 22, 2010	0.92

The correlation between VFORX and VTHR has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.92 to 0.95 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

VFORX vs. VTHR — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

VFORX

VFORX Risk / Return Rank: 73
VFORX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 73
VFORX Sortino Ratio Rank: 71
VFORX Omega Ratio Rank: 72
VFORX Calmar Ratio Rank: 71
VFORX Martin Ratio Rank: 79

VTHR

VTHR Risk / Return Rank: 68
VTHR Sharpe Ratio Rank: 68
VTHR Sortino Ratio Rank: 66
VTHR Omega Ratio Rank: 67
VTHR Calmar Ratio Rank: 63
VTHR Martin Ratio Rank: 75

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

VFORX vs. VTHR - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund (VFORX) and Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF (VTHR). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	VFORX	VTHR	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	2.00	1.92	+0.08
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	2.78	2.64	+0.14
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.37	1.34	+0.03
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	2.67	2.74	-0.07
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	11.49	12.28	-0.79

VFORX vs. VTHR - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current VFORX Sharpe Ratio is 2.00, which is comparable to the VTHR Sharpe Ratio of 1.92. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of VFORX and VTHR, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

VFORX vs. VTHR - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum VFORX drawdown since its inception was -51.63%, which is greater than VTHR's maximum drawdown of -34.61%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for VFORX and VTHR.

Drawdown Indicators

	VFORX	VTHR	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-51.63%	-34.61%	-17.02%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-7.70%	-8.91%	+1.21%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-12.12%	-19.36%	+7.24%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-24.32%	-25.06%	+0.74%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-29.35%	-34.61%	+5.26%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-1.82%	-2.02%	+0.20%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-6.77%	-4.04%	-2.73%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	1.78%	1.99%	-0.21%

Volatility

VFORX vs. VTHR - Volatility Comparison

Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund (VFORX) and Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF (VTHR) have volatilities of 4.19% and 4.33%, respectively, indicating that both stocks experience similar levels of price fluctuations. This suggests that the risk associated with both stocks, as measured by volatility, is nearly the same. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	VFORX	VTHR	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	4.19%	4.33%	-0.14%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	8.47%	9.87%	-1.40%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	10.27%	12.70%	-2.43%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	12.51%	17.36%	-4.85%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	13.70%	17.86%	-4.16%

VFORX vs. VTHR - Expense Ratio Comparison

VFORX has a 0.08% expense ratio, which is higher than VTHR's 0.07% expense ratio. However, both funds are considered low-cost compared to the broader market, where average expense ratios usually range from 0.3% to 0.9%.

Dividends

VFORX vs. VTHR - Dividend Comparison

VFORX's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.56%, more than VTHR's 1.02% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
VFORX Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund	2.56%	2.77%	2.86%	2.38%	2.60%	20.68%	2.06%	2.28%	2.58%	0.04%	2.40%	2.99%
VTHR Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF	1.02%	1.08%	1.19%	1.47%	1.52%	1.16%	1.37%	1.65%	1.89%	1.63%	1.82%	1.84%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both VFORX and VTHR in my portfolio?

With a correlation of 0.95, VFORX and VTHR move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.

Which is riskier, VFORX or VTHR?

VTHR has higher volatility (4.33%) compared to VFORX (4.19%). In terms of maximum drawdown, VFORX dropped -51.63% vs VTHR's -34.61%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

VFORX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.00 vs 1.92), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.