UST vs. SPY
UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) and SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - UST is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index, while SPY is a S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UST returned -2.53%/yr vs 15.09%/yr for SPY. Their -0.23 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. UST charges 0.95%/yr vs 0.09%/yr for SPY.
Performance
UST vs. SPY - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UST achieves a -4.75% return, which is significantly lower than SPY's 11.70% return. Over the past 10 years, UST has underperformed SPY with an annualized return of -2.53%, while SPY has yielded a comparatively higher 15.09% annualized return.
UST
- 1D
- 0.56%
- 1M
- -2.55%
- 6M
- -3.81%
- YTD
- -4.75%
- 1Y
- -2.66%
- 3Y*
- 0.46%
- 5Y*
- -8.21%
- 10Y*
- -2.53%
- ALL TIME*
- 2.37%
SPY
- 1D
- 1.42%
- 1M
- 1.73%
- 6M
- 9.53%
- YTD
- 11.70%
- 1Y
- 23.22%
- 3Y*
- 20.74%
- 5Y*
- 13.05%
- 10Y*
- 15.09%
- ALL TIME*
- 10.83%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $38.19B | $36.17B | $39.59B | |
| $493.89K | $437.03K | $327.72K |
UST vs. SPY - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | -4.75% | 10.26% | -6.19% | 0.16% | -30.19% | -7.81% | 18.83% | 13.34% | -1.09% | 3.21% |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 11.70% | 17.72% | 24.89% | 26.18% | -18.18% | 28.73% | 18.33% | 31.22% | -4.57% | 21.71% |
Correlation
The correlation between UST and SPY is 0.25, which is low. Their historical price movements had little consistent relationship.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | 0.25 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | 0.14 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | 0.09 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | -0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 2, 2010 | -0.23 |
The correlation between UST and SPY shifts across timeframes, from -0.23 (all time) to 0.25 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
UST vs. SPY — Risk / Return Rank
UST
SPY
UST vs. SPY - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UST | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -2.11 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.86 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.96 | 1.32 | -0.36 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.30 | 2.62 | -2.93 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.66 | 11.20 | -11.85 |
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Drawdowns
UST vs. SPY - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UST drawdown since its inception was -47.99%, smaller than the maximum SPY drawdown of -55.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UST and SPY.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UST | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -47.99% | -55.19% | +7.20% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -8.86% | -8.88% | +0.02% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -14.85% | -18.76% | +3.91% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -43.53% | -24.50% | -19.03% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -47.99% | -33.72% | -14.27% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -39.52% | 0.00% | -39.52% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -15.35% | -9.01% | -6.34% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 4.07% | 2.08% | +1.99% |
Volatility
UST vs. SPY - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) is 2.65%, while State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has a volatility of 3.84%. This indicates that UST experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than SPY based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UST | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 2.65% | 3.84% | -1.19% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 7.24% | 10.23% | -2.99% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 9.01% | 12.87% | -3.86% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 15.45% | 17.19% | -1.74% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 13.15% | 17.96% | -4.81% |
UST vs. SPY - Expense Ratio Comparison
UST has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is higher than SPY's 0.09% expense ratio.
Dividends
UST vs. SPY - Dividend Comparison
UST's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.63%, more than SPY's 0.99% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 0.99% | 1.07% | 1.21% | 1.40% | 1.65% | 1.20% | 1.52% | 1.75% | 2.04% | 1.80% | 2.03% | 2.06% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.63% | 3.65% | 4.09% | 3.49% | 0.47% | 0.27% | 0.53% | 1.42% | 1.71% | 0.84% | 0.64% | 0.75% |
Frequently Asked Questions
UST and SPY have a correlation of 0.25, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
SPY has higher volatility (3.84%) compared to UST (2.65%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UST dropped -47.99% vs SPY's -55.19%.
On 10-year performance, SPY leads with 15.09% vs -2.53% for UST. On fees, SPY is cheaper at 0.09% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 2.65%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, SPY has performed better with a 15.09% return vs -2.53%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
SPY is cheaper with a 0.09% expense ratio, compared with 0.95% for UST.
UST has the higher dividend yield at 3.63%, compared with 0.99% for SPY.
UST is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while SPY is S&P 500. UST tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index, while SPY tracks S&P 500 Index. They also come from different issuers: ProShares and State Street. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UST and 0.09% for SPY.
SPY currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.82 vs -0.30), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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