UST vs. SPY
UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) and SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - UST is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%), while SPY is a S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UST returned -2.35%/yr vs 15.53%/yr for SPY. At a correlation of -0.23, they often move in opposite directions. UST charges 0.95%/yr vs 0.09%/yr for SPY.
Performance
UST vs. SPY - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UST achieves a -2.82% return, which is significantly lower than SPY's 8.15% return. Over the past 10 years, UST has underperformed SPY with an annualized return of -2.35%, while SPY has yielded a comparatively higher 15.53% annualized return.
UST
- 1D
- 0.23%
- 1M
- 0.95%
- YTD
- -2.82%
- 6M
- -2.86%
- 1Y
- 1.76%
- 3Y*
- -0.19%
- 5Y*
- -6.85%
- 10Y*
- -2.35%
SPY
- 1D
- -1.45%
- 1M
- -1.36%
- YTD
- 8.15%
- 6M
- 7.20%
- 1Y
- 23.59%
- 3Y*
- 20.68%
- 5Y*
- 13.05%
- 10Y*
- 15.53%
UST vs. SPY - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | -2.82% | 10.26% | -6.19% | 0.16% | -30.19% | -7.81% | 18.83% | 13.34% | -1.09% | 3.21% |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 8.15% | 17.72% | 24.89% | 26.18% | -18.18% | 28.73% | 18.33% | 31.22% | -4.57% | 21.71% |
Correlation
The correlation between UST and SPY is 0.25, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.25 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.14 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.08 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.09 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 2, 2010 | -0.23 |
The correlation between UST and SPY shifts across timeframes, from -0.23 (all time) to 0.25 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
UST vs. SPY — Risk / Return Rank
UST
SPY
UST vs. SPY - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UST | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.71 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.24 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.04 | 1.34 | -0.31 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.20 | 2.67 | -2.46 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.52 | 11.92 | -11.40 |
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Drawdowns
UST vs. SPY - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UST drawdown since its inception was -47.99%, smaller than the maximum SPY drawdown of -55.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UST and SPY.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UST | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -47.99% | -55.19% | +7.20% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -8.75% | -8.88% | +0.13% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -16.66% | -18.76% | +2.10% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -43.97% | -24.50% | -19.47% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -47.99% | -33.72% | -14.27% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -38.29% | -3.17% | -35.12% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -15.20% | -9.04% | -6.16% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 3.37% | 1.98% | +1.39% |
Volatility
UST vs. SPY - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) is 2.71%, while State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has a volatility of 4.87%. This indicates that UST experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than SPY based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UST | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 2.71% | 4.87% | -2.16% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 6.85% | 9.85% | -3.00% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 9.34% | 12.50% | -3.16% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 15.47% | 17.15% | -1.68% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 13.16% | 17.95% | -4.79% |
UST vs. SPY - Expense Ratio Comparison
UST has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is higher than SPY's 0.09% expense ratio.
Dividends
UST vs. SPY - Dividend Comparison
UST's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.49%, more than SPY's 1.03% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 1.03% | 1.07% | 1.21% | 1.40% | 1.65% | 1.20% | 1.52% | 1.75% | 2.04% | 1.80% | 2.03% | 2.06% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.49% | 3.65% | 4.09% | 3.49% | 0.47% | 0.27% | 0.53% | 1.42% | 1.71% | 0.84% | 0.64% | 0.75% |
Frequently Asked Questions
UST and SPY have a correlation of 0.25, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
SPY has higher volatility (4.87%) compared to UST (2.71%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UST dropped -47.99% vs SPY's -55.19%.
On 10-year performance, SPY leads with 15.53% vs -2.35% for UST. On fees, SPY is cheaper at 0.09% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 2.71%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, SPY has performed better with a 15.53% return vs -2.35%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
SPY is cheaper with a 0.09% expense ratio, compared with 0.95% for UST.
UST has the higher dividend yield at 3.49%, compared with 1.03% for SPY.
UST is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while SPY is S&P 500. UST tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%), while SPY tracks S&P 500 Index. They also come from different issuers: ProShares and State Street. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UST and 0.09% for SPY.
SPY currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.90 vs 0.19), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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