UST vs. SPY

Last updated Jun 4, 2026

UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) and SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - UST is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%), while SPY is a S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UST returned -2.13%/yr vs 15.49%/yr for SPY. At a correlation of -0.23, they often move in opposite directions. UST charges 0.95%/yr vs 0.09%/yr for SPY.

Performance

UST vs. SPY - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, UST achieves a -2.88% return, which is significantly lower than SPY's 10.91% return. Over the past 10 years, UST has underperformed SPY with an annualized return of -2.13%, while SPY has yielded a comparatively higher 15.49% annualized return.

UST

• 1D: -0.56%
• 1M: -0.51%
• YTD: -2.88%
• 6M: -4.24%
• 1Y: 3.81%
• 3Y*: -0.51%
• 5Y*: -6.75%
• 10Y*: -2.13%

SPY

• 1D: -0.70%
• 1M: 5.05%
• YTD: 10.91%
• 6M: 10.91%
• 1Y: 27.98%
• 3Y*: 22.35%
• 5Y*: 13.83%
• 10Y*: 15.49%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

UST vs. SPY - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury	-2.88%	10.26%	-6.19%	0.16%	-30.19%	-7.81%	18.83%	13.34%	-1.09%	3.21%
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF	10.91%	17.72%	24.89%	26.18%	-18.18%	28.73%	18.33%	31.22%	-4.57%	21.71%

Correlation

The correlation between UST and SPY is 0.21, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.21
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.14
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.07
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	-0.09
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 3, 2010	-0.23

The correlation between UST and SPY shifts across timeframes, from -0.23 (all time) to 0.21 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.

UST vs. SPY - Sectors Allocation Comparison

Sectors	UST	SPY
Financial Services	97.4%	11.8%
Basic Materials	-	1.8%
Communication Services	-	11.3%
Consumer Cyclical	-	10.3%
Consumer Defensive	-	4.8%
Energy	-	3.6%
Healthcare	-	8.4%
Industrials	-	7.8%
Real Estate	-	1.9%
Technology	-	35.9%
Utilities	-	2.4%

Return for Risk

UST vs. SPY — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

UST

UST Risk / Return Rank: 14
UST Sharpe Ratio Rank: 15
UST Sortino Ratio Rank: 13
UST Omega Ratio Rank: 13
UST Calmar Ratio Rank: 14
UST Martin Ratio Rank: 15

SPY

SPY Risk / Return Rank: 70
SPY Sharpe Ratio Rank: 71
SPY Sortino Ratio Rank: 69
SPY Omega Ratio Rank: 70
SPY Calmar Ratio Rank: 62
SPY Martin Ratio Rank: 75

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

UST vs. SPY - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	UST	SPY	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	0.40	2.38	-1.98
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	0.64	3.24	-2.59
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.07	1.43	-0.36
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	0.44	3.16	-2.73
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	1.26	14.72	-13.46
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

UST vs. SPY - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current UST Sharpe Ratio is 0.40, which is lower than the SPY Sharpe Ratio of 2.38. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of UST and SPY, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	UST	SPY	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.40	2.38	-1.98
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	-0.44	0.82	-1.25
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	-0.16	0.87	-1.03
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	0.19	0.59	-0.39

Drawdowns

UST vs. SPY - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum UST drawdown since its inception was -47.99%, smaller than the maximum SPY drawdown of -55.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UST and SPY.

Drawdown Indicators

	UST	SPY	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-47.99%	-55.19%	+7.20%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-8.75%	-8.88%	+0.13%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-16.87%	-18.76%	+1.89%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-43.97%	-24.50%	-19.47%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-47.99%	-33.72%	-14.27%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-38.33%	-0.70%	-37.63%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-15.13%	-9.05%	-6.08%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	3.03%	1.91%	+1.12%

Volatility

UST vs. SPY - Volatility Comparison

ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) has a higher volatility of 3.10% compared to State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at 2.84%. This indicates that UST's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than SPY based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	UST	SPY	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	3.10%	2.84%	+0.26%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	6.58%	8.90%	-2.32%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	9.50%	11.83%	-2.33%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	15.47%	17.05%	-1.58%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	13.18%	17.94%	-4.76%

UST vs. SPY - Expense Ratio Comparison

UST has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is higher than SPY's 0.09% expense ratio.

Dividends

UST vs. SPY - Dividend Comparison

UST's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.49%, more than SPY's 0.98% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF	0.98%	1.07%	1.21%	1.40%	1.65%	1.20%	1.52%	1.75%	2.04%	1.80%	2.03%	2.06%
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury	3.49%	3.65%	4.09%	3.49%	0.47%	0.27%	0.53%	1.42%	1.71%	0.84%	0.64%	0.75%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both UST and SPY in my portfolio?

UST and SPY have a correlation of 0.21, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, UST or SPY?

UST has higher volatility (3.10%) compared to SPY (2.84%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UST dropped -47.99% vs SPY's -55.19%.

Which ETF is better, UST or SPY?

On 10-year performance, SPY leads with 15.49% vs -2.13% for UST. On fees, SPY is cheaper at 0.09% per year. On volatility, SPY has been the lower-risk option at 2.84%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, UST or SPY?

Over the 10-year period, SPY has performed better with a 15.49% return vs -2.13%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, UST or SPY?

SPY is cheaper with a 0.09% expense ratio, compared with 0.95% for UST.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, UST or SPY?

UST has the higher dividend yield at 3.49%, compared with 0.98% for SPY.

What is the main difference between UST and SPY?

UST is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while SPY is S&P 500. UST tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%), while SPY tracks S&P 500 Index. They also come from different issuers: ProShares and State Street. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UST and 0.09% for SPY.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

SPY currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.38 vs 0.40), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.