UST vs. NAIL

Last updated Jun 13, 2026

UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) and NAIL (Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares) are both exchange-traded funds - UST is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%), while NAIL is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UST returned -2.25%/yr vs 6.16%/yr for NAIL. At a 0.08 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. UST charges 0.95%/yr vs 0.99%/yr for NAIL.

Performance

UST vs. NAIL - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) and Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, UST achieves a -2.66% return, which is significantly higher than NAIL's -13.15% return. Over the past 10 years, UST has underperformed NAIL with an annualized return of -2.25%, while NAIL has yielded a comparatively higher 6.16% annualized return.

UST

• 1D: -0.42%
• 1M: -0.04%
• YTD: -2.66%
• 6M: -2.37%
• 1Y: 2.47%
• 3Y*: 0.27%
• 5Y*: -6.96%
• 10Y*: -2.25%

NAIL

• 1D: -2.18%
• 1M: 25.39%
• YTD: -13.15%
• 6M: -27.97%
• 1Y: -17.64%
• 3Y*: -11.92%
• 5Y*: -9.97%
• 10Y*: 6.16%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

UST vs. NAIL - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury	-2.66%	10.26%	-6.19%	0.16%	-30.19%	-7.81%	18.83%	13.34%	-1.09%	3.21%
NAIL Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares	-13.15%	-40.43%	-22.83%	259.61%	-75.23%	168.20%	-32.08%	184.63%	-73.96%	268.71%

Correlation

The correlation between UST and NAIL is 0.45, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.45
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.34
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.27
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.11
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Aug 19, 2015	0.08

Over the past year, UST and NAIL have become more correlated (0.45) than their long-term average of 0.08, meaning their price movements have been converging.

UST vs. NAIL - Sectors Allocation Comparison

Sectors	UST	NAIL
Financial Services	96.7%	-
Basic Materials	-	8.6%
Communication Services	-	-
Consumer Cyclical	-	71.8%
Consumer Defensive	-	-
Energy	-	-
Healthcare	-	-
Industrials	-	19.1%
Real Estate	-	0.5%
Technology	-	-
Utilities	-	-

Return for Risk

UST vs. NAIL — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

UST

UST Risk / Return Rank: 13
UST Sharpe Ratio Rank: 14
UST Sortino Ratio Rank: 13
UST Omega Ratio Rank: 12
UST Calmar Ratio Rank: 13
UST Martin Ratio Rank: 13

NAIL

NAIL Risk / Return Rank: 9
NAIL Sharpe Ratio Rank: 7
NAIL Sortino Ratio Rank: 11
NAIL Omega Ratio Rank: 11
NAIL Calmar Ratio Rank: 7
NAIL Martin Ratio Rank: 7

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

UST vs. NAIL - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) and Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	UST	NAIL	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	0.27	-0.20	+0.47
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	0.45	0.35	+0.11
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.05	1.04	+0.01
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	0.28	-0.26	+0.54
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	0.77	-0.45	+1.22

UST vs. NAIL - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current UST Sharpe Ratio is 0.27, which is higher than the NAIL Sharpe Ratio of -0.20. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of UST and NAIL, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

UST vs. NAIL - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum UST drawdown since its inception was -47.99%, smaller than the maximum NAIL drawdown of -93.75%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UST and NAIL.

Drawdown Indicators

	UST	NAIL	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-47.99%	-93.75%	+45.76%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-8.75%	-67.85%	+59.10%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-16.74%	-82.09%	+65.35%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-43.97%	-84.40%	+40.43%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-47.99%	-93.75%	+45.76%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-38.19%	-75.18%	+36.99%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-15.16%	-43.87%	+28.71%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	3.22%	39.36%	-36.14%

Volatility

UST vs. NAIL - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) is 3.25%, while Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL) has a volatility of 26.93%. This indicates that UST experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than NAIL based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	UST	NAIL	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	3.25%	26.93%	-23.68%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	6.75%	61.98%	-55.23%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	9.35%	88.92%	-79.57%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	15.47%	87.27%	-71.80%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	13.18%	89.35%	-76.17%

UST vs. NAIL - Expense Ratio Comparison

UST has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is lower than NAIL's 0.99% expense ratio.

Dividends

UST vs. NAIL - Dividend Comparison

UST's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.48%, more than NAIL's 0.91% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
NAIL Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares	0.91%	1.55%	0.63%	0.22%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.17%	0.35%	1.25%	0.00%	0.00%
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury	3.48%	3.65%	4.09%	3.49%	0.47%	0.27%	0.53%	1.42%	1.71%	0.84%	0.64%	0.75%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both UST and NAIL in my portfolio?

UST and NAIL have a correlation of 0.45, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, UST or NAIL?

NAIL has higher volatility (26.93%) compared to UST (3.25%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UST dropped -47.99% vs NAIL's -93.75%.

Which ETF is better, UST or NAIL?

On 10-year performance, NAIL leads with 6.16% vs -2.25% for UST. On fees, UST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 3.25%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, UST or NAIL?

Over the 10-year period, NAIL has performed better with a 6.16% return vs -2.25%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, UST or NAIL?

UST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 0.99% for NAIL.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, UST or NAIL?

UST has the higher dividend yield at 3.48%, compared with 0.91% for NAIL.

What is the main difference between UST and NAIL?

UST is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while NAIL is Leveraged Equities. UST tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%), while NAIL tracks Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UST and 0.99% for NAIL.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

UST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.27 vs -0.20), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.