TYA vs. UST
TYA (Simplify Intermediate Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF) and UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) are both exchange-traded funds - TYA is a Government Bonds fund actively managed by Simplify, while UST is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%). TYA is actively managed, while UST is passively managed. Over the past 3 years, TYA returned -1.87%/yr vs -0.19%/yr for UST. With a 0.97 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. TYA charges 0.15%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UST.
Performance
TYA vs. UST - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TYA achieves a -5.34% return, which is significantly lower than UST's -2.82% return.
TYA
- 1D
- 0.27%
- 1M
- 0.70%
- YTD
- -5.34%
- 6M
- -5.34%
- 1Y
- -0.95%
- 3Y*
- -1.87%
- 5Y*
- —
- 10Y*
- —
UST
- 1D
- 0.23%
- 1M
- 0.95%
- YTD
- -2.82%
- 6M
- -2.86%
- 1Y
- 1.76%
- 3Y*
- -0.19%
- 5Y*
- -6.85%
- 10Y*
- -2.35%
TYA vs. UST - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TYA Simplify Intermediate Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF | -5.34% | 14.38% | -9.63% | -2.23% | -37.62% | -0.80% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | -2.82% | 10.26% | -6.19% | 0.16% | -30.19% | -0.76% |
Correlation
The correlation between TYA and UST is 0.98 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.98 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.97 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Sep 28, 2021 | 0.97 |
The correlation between TYA and UST has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.97 to 0.98 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TYA vs. UST — Risk / Return Rank
TYA
UST
TYA vs. UST - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Simplify Intermediate Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (TYA) and ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TYA | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.27 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.36 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.00 | 1.04 | -0.04 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.08 | 0.20 | -0.28 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.20 | 0.52 | -0.73 |
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Drawdowns
TYA vs. UST - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TYA drawdown since its inception was -51.15%, which is greater than UST's maximum drawdown of -47.99%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TYA and UST.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TYA | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -51.15% | -47.99% | -3.16% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -11.80% | -8.75% | -3.05% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -21.36% | -16.66% | -4.70% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | — | -43.97% | — |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | — | -47.99% | — |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -41.65% | -38.29% | -3.36% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -35.88% | -15.20% | -20.68% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 4.67% | 3.37% | +1.30% |
Volatility
TYA vs. UST - Volatility Comparison
Simplify Intermediate Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (TYA) has a higher volatility of 3.58% compared to ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) at 2.71%. This indicates that TYA's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than UST based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TYA | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 3.58% | 2.71% | +0.87% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 9.14% | 6.85% | +2.29% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 12.62% | 9.34% | +3.28% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 20.50% | 15.47% | +5.03% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 20.50% | 13.16% | +7.34% |
TYA vs. UST - Expense Ratio Comparison
TYA has a 0.15% expense ratio, which is lower than UST's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
TYA vs. UST - Dividend Comparison
TYA's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.88%, more than UST's 3.49% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TYA Simplify Intermediate Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF | 3.88% | 3.85% | 4.84% | 4.28% | 2.23% | 0.11% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.49% | 3.65% | 4.09% | 3.49% | 0.47% | 0.27% | 0.53% | 1.42% | 1.71% | 0.84% | 0.64% | 0.75% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.98, TYA and UST move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TYA has higher volatility (3.58%) compared to UST (2.71%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TYA dropped -51.15% vs UST's -47.99%.
On 3-year performance, UST leads with -0.19% vs -1.87% for TYA. On fees, TYA is cheaper at 0.15% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 2.71%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 3-year period, UST has performed better with a -0.19% return vs -1.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TYA is cheaper with a 0.15% expense ratio, compared with 0.95% for UST.
TYA has the higher dividend yield at 3.88%, compared with 3.49% for UST.
TYA is categorized as Government Bonds, while UST is Leveraged Bonds. They also come from different issuers: Simplify and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 0.15% for TYA and 0.95% for UST.
UST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.19 vs -0.08), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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