TUA vs. CAOS

Last updated Aug 4, 2026

TUA (Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF) and CAOS (Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TUA is a Intermediate Core Bond fund actively managed by Simplify, while CAOS is a Options Trading fund actively managed by Alpha Architect. Both are actively managed. Over the past 3 years, TUA returned 0.30%/yr vs 3.56%/yr for CAOS. Their 0.02 correlation means their historical movements had little consistent relationship. TUA charges 0.16%/yr vs 0.63%/yr for CAOS.

Performance

TUA vs. CAOS - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (TUA) and Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, TUA achieves a -6.16% return, which is significantly lower than CAOS's 0.75% return.

TUA

• 1D: 0.22%
• 1M: -0.88%
• 6M: -5.37%
• YTD: -6.16%
• 1Y: -5.03%
• 3Y*: 0.30%
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —
• ALL TIME*: -1.57%

CAOS

• 1D: -0.01%
• 1M: -0.02%
• 6M: 0.18%
• YTD: 0.75%
• 1Y: 1.71%
• 3Y*: 3.56%
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —
• ALL TIME*: 4.69%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Liquidity Comparison

Position	Avg. Volume Value (2W)	Avg. Volume Value (1M)	Avg. Volume Value (3M)
CAOS Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF	$7.09M	$5.54M	$5.04M
TUA Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF	$11.78M	$10.08M	$8.27M

TUA vs. CAOS - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023
TUA Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF	-6.16%	7.27%	-3.59%	2.33%
CAOS Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF	0.75%	2.55%	5.33%	7.43%

Correlation

The correlation between TUA and CAOS is 0.03, meaning there was essentially no consistent relationship between their historical price movements. Each responded to its own set of market drivers.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most.	0.03
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history.	0.10
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Mar 6, 2023	0.02

Return for Risk

TUA vs. CAOS — Risk / Return Rank

Compare historical risk-adjusted metric ranks over the past 12 months.

TUA

TUA Risk / Return Rank: 3
TUA Sharpe Ratio Rank: 3
TUA Sortino Ratio Rank: 3
TUA Omega Ratio Rank: 3
TUA Calmar Ratio Rank: 4
TUA Martin Ratio Rank: 1

CAOS

CAOS Risk / Return Rank: 49
CAOS Sharpe Ratio Rank: 43
CAOS Sortino Ratio Rank: 47
CAOS Omega Ratio Rank: 47
CAOS Calmar Ratio Rank: 63
CAOS Martin Ratio Rank: 44

The rank (0–100) uses a weighted average of the Sharpe, Sortino, Omega, Calmar, and Martin percentile ranks for the trailing 12 months. Higher means stronger historical risk-adjusted performance within the peer group.

TUA vs. CAOS - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (TUA) and Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	TUA	CAOS	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-0.77	1.10	-1.87
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-0.99	1.74	-2.74
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.89	1.22	-0.33
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.63	2.27	-2.91
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.37	4.99	-6.37

TUA vs. CAOS - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current TUA Sharpe Ratio is -0.77, which is lower than the CAOS Sharpe Ratio of 1.10. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of TUA and CAOS, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

TUA vs. CAOS - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum TUA drawdown since its inception was -15.85%, which is greater than CAOS's maximum drawdown of -3.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TUA and CAOS.

Drawdown Indicators

	TUA	CAOS	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-15.85%	-3.89%	-11.96%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-7.96%	-0.76%	-7.20%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-9.14%	-3.60%	-5.54%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-10.79%	-1.14%	-9.65%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-8.45%	-0.92%	-7.53%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	3.67%	0.34%	+3.33%

Volatility

TUA vs. CAOS - Volatility Comparison

Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (TUA) has a higher volatility of 1.86% compared to Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS) at 0.46%. This indicates that TUA's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than CAOS based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	TUA	CAOS	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	1.86%	0.46%	+1.40%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	5.57%	1.07%	+4.50%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	6.59%	1.57%	+5.02%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	10.65%	4.17%	+6.48%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	10.65%	4.17%	+6.48%

TUA vs. CAOS - Expense Ratio Comparison

TUA has a 0.16% expense ratio, which is lower than CAOS's 0.63% expense ratio.

Dividends

TUA vs. CAOS - Dividend Comparison

TUA's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.11%, while CAOS has not paid dividends to shareholders.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022
CAOS Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
TUA Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF	3.11%	3.84%	5.19%	4.83%	0.15%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both TUA and CAOS in my portfolio?

TUA and CAOS have a correlation of 0.03, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, TUA or CAOS?

TUA has higher volatility (1.86%) compared to CAOS (0.46%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TUA dropped -15.85% vs CAOS's -3.89%.

Which ETF is better, TUA or CAOS?

On 3-year performance, CAOS leads with 3.56% vs 0.30% for TUA. On fees, TUA is cheaper at 0.16% per year. On volatility, CAOS has been the lower-risk option at 0.46%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, TUA or CAOS?

Over the 3-year period, CAOS has performed better with a 3.56% return vs 0.30%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, TUA or CAOS?

TUA is cheaper with a 0.16% expense ratio, compared with 0.63% for CAOS.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, TUA or CAOS?

TUA has the higher dividend yield at 3.11%, compared with 0.00% for CAOS.

What is the main difference between TUA and CAOS?

TUA is categorized as Intermediate Core Bond, while CAOS is Options Trading. They also come from different issuers: Simplify and Alpha Architect. Their fees differ too: 0.16% for TUA and 0.63% for CAOS.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

CAOS currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.10 vs -0.77), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.