NAIL vs. UST

Last updated Jun 13, 2026

NAIL (Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares) and UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) are both exchange-traded funds - NAIL is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index (300%), while UST is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, NAIL returned 6.16%/yr vs -2.25%/yr for UST. At a 0.08 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. NAIL charges 0.99%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UST.

Performance

NAIL vs. UST - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL) and ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, NAIL achieves a -13.15% return, which is significantly lower than UST's -2.66% return. Over the past 10 years, NAIL has outperformed UST with an annualized return of 6.16%, while UST has yielded a comparatively lower -2.25% annualized return.

NAIL

• 1D: -2.18%
• 1M: 25.39%
• YTD: -13.15%
• 6M: -27.97%
• 1Y: -17.64%
• 3Y*: -11.92%
• 5Y*: -9.97%
• 10Y*: 6.16%

UST

• 1D: -0.42%
• 1M: -0.04%
• YTD: -2.66%
• 6M: -2.37%
• 1Y: 2.47%
• 3Y*: 0.27%
• 5Y*: -6.96%
• 10Y*: -2.25%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

NAIL vs. UST - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
NAIL Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares	-13.15%	-40.43%	-22.83%	259.61%	-75.23%	168.20%	-32.08%	184.63%	-73.96%	268.71%
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury	-2.66%	10.26%	-6.19%	0.16%	-30.19%	-7.81%	18.83%	13.34%	-1.09%	3.21%

Correlation

The correlation between NAIL and UST is 0.45, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.45
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.34
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.27
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.11
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Aug 19, 2015	0.08

Over the past year, NAIL and UST have become more correlated (0.45) than their long-term average of 0.08, meaning their price movements have been converging.

NAIL vs. UST - Sectors Allocation Comparison

Sectors	NAIL	UST
Consumer Cyclical	71.8%	-
Industrials	19.1%	-
Basic Materials	8.6%	-
Real Estate	0.5%	-
Communication Services	-	-
Consumer Defensive	-	-
Energy	-	-
Financial Services	-	96.7%
Healthcare	-	-
Technology	-	-
Utilities	-	-

Return for Risk

NAIL vs. UST — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

NAIL

NAIL Risk / Return Rank: 9
NAIL Sharpe Ratio Rank: 7
NAIL Sortino Ratio Rank: 11
NAIL Omega Ratio Rank: 11
NAIL Calmar Ratio Rank: 7
NAIL Martin Ratio Rank: 7

UST

UST Risk / Return Rank: 13
UST Sharpe Ratio Rank: 14
UST Sortino Ratio Rank: 13
UST Omega Ratio Rank: 12
UST Calmar Ratio Rank: 13
UST Martin Ratio Rank: 13

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

NAIL vs. UST - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL) and ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	NAIL	UST	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-0.20	0.27	-0.47
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	0.35	0.45	-0.11
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.04	1.05	-0.01
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.26	0.28	-0.54
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-0.45	0.77	-1.22

NAIL vs. UST - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current NAIL Sharpe Ratio is -0.20, which is lower than the UST Sharpe Ratio of 0.27. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of NAIL and UST, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

NAIL vs. UST - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum NAIL drawdown since its inception was -93.75%, which is greater than UST's maximum drawdown of -47.99%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for NAIL and UST.

Drawdown Indicators

	NAIL	UST	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-93.75%	-47.99%	-45.76%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-67.85%	-8.75%	-59.10%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-82.09%	-16.74%	-65.35%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-84.40%	-43.97%	-40.43%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-93.75%	-47.99%	-45.76%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-75.18%	-38.19%	-36.99%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-43.87%	-15.16%	-28.71%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	39.36%	3.22%	+36.14%

Volatility

NAIL vs. UST - Volatility Comparison

Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL) has a higher volatility of 26.93% compared to ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) at 3.25%. This indicates that NAIL's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than UST based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	NAIL	UST	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	26.93%	3.25%	+23.68%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	61.98%	6.75%	+55.23%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	88.92%	9.35%	+79.57%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	87.27%	15.47%	+71.80%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	89.35%	13.18%	+76.17%

NAIL vs. UST - Expense Ratio Comparison

NAIL has a 0.99% expense ratio, which is higher than UST's 0.95% expense ratio.

Dividends

NAIL vs. UST - Dividend Comparison

NAIL's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 0.91%, less than UST's 3.48% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
NAIL Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares	0.91%	1.55%	0.63%	0.22%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.17%	0.35%	1.25%	0.00%	0.00%
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury	3.48%	3.65%	4.09%	3.49%	0.47%	0.27%	0.53%	1.42%	1.71%	0.84%	0.64%	0.75%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both NAIL and UST in my portfolio?

NAIL and UST have a correlation of 0.45, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, NAIL or UST?

NAIL has higher volatility (26.93%) compared to UST (3.25%). In terms of maximum drawdown, NAIL dropped -93.75% vs UST's -47.99%.

Which ETF is better, NAIL or UST?

On 10-year performance, NAIL leads with 6.16% vs -2.25% for UST. On fees, UST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 3.25%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, NAIL or UST?

Over the 10-year period, NAIL has performed better with a 6.16% return vs -2.25%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, NAIL or UST?

UST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 0.99% for NAIL.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, NAIL or UST?

UST has the higher dividend yield at 3.48%, compared with 0.91% for NAIL.

What is the main difference between NAIL and UST?

NAIL is categorized as Leveraged Equities, while UST is Leveraged Bonds. NAIL tracks Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index (300%), while UST tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 0.99% for NAIL and 0.95% for UST.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

UST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.27 vs -0.20), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.