Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio

Asset Allocation

Position	Category/Sector	Target Weight
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend	Foreign Small & Mid Cap Equities, Dividend	10%
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF	Foreign Large Cap Equities	10%
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF	Foreign Large Cap Equities	10%
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF	Small Cap Blend Equities	10%
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF	Small Cap Value Equities	10%
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF	REIT	10%
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF	Foreign Small & Mid Cap Equities	10%
VTV Vanguard Value ETF	Large Cap Value Equities	10%
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF	Large Cap Growth Equities	10%
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF	Emerging Markets Equities	10%

Benchmark Against

Benchmark

S&P 500 Index

Rebalance

Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.

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The earliest data available for this chart is Sep 9, 2010, corresponding to the inception date of VIOV

Returns By Period

As of Apr 2, 2026, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio returned 2.45% Year-To-Date and 9.55% of annualized return in the last 10 years.

	1D	1M	YTD	6M	1Y	3Y*	5Y*	10Y*
Benchmark S&P 500 Index	0.11%	-3.43%	-3.84%	-1.98%	16.08%	16.86%	10.37%	12.29%
Portfolio Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio	-0.10%	-2.88%	2.45%	4.86%	21.93%	14.29%	7.33%	9.55%
Portfolio components:
VTV Vanguard Value ETF	0.16%	-3.03%	3.71%	6.74%	16.12%	14.94%	10.95%	11.89%
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF	0.30%	-2.49%	4.91%	7.32%	22.22%	10.40%	5.03%	9.69%
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF	0.14%	-3.28%	-3.97%	-1.98%	17.41%	18.69%	11.50%	14.18%
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF	-0.67%	-2.48%	2.90%	6.78%	27.80%	15.65%	7.59%	9.14%
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF	0.43%	-2.71%	4.49%	5.59%	19.65%	10.79%	4.29%	10.06%
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF	-0.72%	-2.55%	0.11%	0.38%	21.72%	13.41%	3.75%	7.73%
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF	-0.35%	-0.94%	5.04%	12.72%	32.70%	20.46%	12.60%	9.75%
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend	-0.69%	-3.45%	1.82%	5.16%	29.27%	14.81%	6.85%	7.49%
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF	-0.89%	-3.51%	2.34%	4.98%	30.37%	13.86%	5.51%	7.76%
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF	1.36%	-4.43%	3.06%	1.04%	2.95%	7.33%	3.14%	4.85%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Sep 10, 2010, Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio's average daily return is +0.04%, while the average monthly return is +0.83%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 7.0 years.

Historically, 64% of months were positive and 36% were negative. The best month was Nov 2020 with a return of +13.3%, while the worst month was Mar 2020 at -18.6%. The longest winning streak lasted 10 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 5 months.

On a daily basis, Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio closed higher 54% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 24, 2020 with a return of +8.5%, while the worst single day was Mar 16, 2020 at -12.3%.

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2026	4.83%	3.54%	-6.28%	0.71%									2.45%
2025	2.49%	0.07%	-1.53%	-0.23%	4.46%	4.06%	0.45%	4.78%	2.22%	0.07%	1.54%	1.15%	21.11%
2024	-2.30%	2.69%	3.33%	-3.53%	4.22%	-0.52%	5.33%	1.70%	2.42%	-3.24%	3.64%	-4.42%	9.04%
2023	8.38%	-3.28%	-0.51%	0.70%	-3.34%	5.75%	4.32%	-3.69%	-4.19%	-3.92%	8.51%	7.28%	15.58%
2022	-3.68%	-1.75%	0.98%	-6.30%	0.88%	-8.06%	5.76%	-4.06%	-10.02%	6.35%	8.67%	-3.47%	-15.44%
2021	1.24%	4.61%	3.56%	3.40%	2.38%	0.11%	-0.45%	1.97%	-3.48%	3.65%	-3.47%	4.93%	19.54%

Benchmark Metrics

Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio has an annualized alpha of -1.50%, beta of 0.92, and R² of 0.86 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since September 10, 2010.

This portfolio participated in 100.96% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 88.80% of its upside — more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
With beta of 0.92 and R² of 0.86, this portfolio moves broadly in line with S&P 500 Index — much of its variation is explained by market exposure rather than independent behavior.

Alpha: -1.50%

Beta: 0.92

R²: 0.86

Upside Capture: 88.80%

Downside Capture: 100.96%

Expense Ratio

Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.16%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.

DLS

WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend

EFV

iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF

VNQ

Vanguard Real Estate ETF

VIOV

Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF

VIOO

Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF

VWO

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF

VEU

Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF

VSS

Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF

VTV

Vanguard Value ETF

Vanguard Large-Cap ETF

Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio ranks 60 for risk / return — on par with similar portfolios. You're getting a typical balance of risk and reward. Not a standout, but not a red flag either — a reasonable choice if other factors align with your goals.

Overall Rank

Sharpe Ratio Rank

Sortino Ratio Rank

Omega Ratio Rank

Calmar Ratio Rank

Martin Ratio Rank

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics

	Portfolio	Benchmark	Difference
Sharpe ratio Return per unit of total volatility	1.37	0.88	+0.49
Sortino ratio Return per unit of downside risk	1.96	1.37	+0.59
Omega ratio Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.28	1.21	+0.08
Calmar ratio Return relative to maximum drawdown	1.87	1.39	+0.48
Martin ratio Return relative to average drawdown	8.35	6.43	+1.92
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

	Risk / Return Rank	Sharpe ratio	Sortino ratio	Omega ratio	Calmar ratio	Martin ratio
VTV Vanguard Value ETF	56	1.09	1.57	1.23	1.48	6.62
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF	50	0.95	1.46	1.19	1.55	5.76
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF	53	0.94	1.45	1.22	1.50	6.88
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF	79	1.62	2.23	1.33	2.46	9.28
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF	46	0.87	1.36	1.18	1.47	5.81
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF	62	1.22	1.74	1.25	1.78	6.68
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF	87	1.94	2.59	1.39	2.91	11.15
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend	85	1.88	2.52	1.38	2.67	10.03
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF	85	1.86	2.48	1.38	2.66	10.27
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF	16	0.18	0.36	1.05	0.29	1.11

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio Sharpe ratios as of Apr 2, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

1-Year: 1.37
5-Year: 0.48
10-Year: 0.56
All Time: 0.55

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 1.01 to 1.70, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio falls between the 25th and 75th percentiles. This indicates that its risk-adjusted performance is in line with the majority of portfolios, suggesting a balanced approach to risk and return—likely suitable for a wide range of investors.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.

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Dividends

Dividend yield

Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio provided a 2.66% dividend yield over the last twelve months.

	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Portfolio	2.66%	2.74%	2.98%	3.01%	3.01%	2.44%	2.12%	2.82%	2.98%	2.50%	2.64%	2.62%
Portfolio components:
VTV Vanguard Value ETF	2.02%	2.05%	2.31%	2.46%	2.52%	2.15%	2.56%	2.50%	2.73%	2.29%	2.44%	2.60%
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF	1.75%	1.69%	1.78%	2.18%	1.81%	1.59%	1.42%	1.60%	1.76%	1.43%	1.17%	1.32%
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF	1.12%	1.08%	1.24%	1.41%	1.66%	1.19%	1.46%	1.81%	2.09%	1.75%	1.98%	1.96%
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF	2.90%	3.09%	3.24%	3.32%	3.12%	3.08%	2.00%	3.10%	3.27%	2.66%	2.96%	2.95%
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF	1.30%	1.36%	1.48%	1.47%	1.51%	1.16%	1.09%	1.37%	1.32%	1.11%	1.06%	1.26%
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF	2.70%	2.79%	3.20%	3.52%	4.11%	2.63%	1.91%	3.23%	2.88%	2.30%	2.52%	3.26%
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF	3.96%	4.16%	4.66%	4.36%	4.17%	4.07%	2.42%	4.62%	4.56%	3.56%	3.28%	3.59%
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend	3.67%	3.87%	4.56%	4.29%	4.96%	3.29%	2.50%	3.37%	3.66%	2.79%	3.29%	2.72%
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF	3.31%	3.39%	3.44%	3.14%	2.30%	2.74%	1.90%	3.25%	2.80%	2.83%	2.93%	2.66%
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF	3.86%	3.92%	3.85%	3.95%	3.91%	2.56%	3.93%	3.39%	4.74%	4.23%	4.82%	3.92%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.

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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio was 38.24%, occurring on Mar 23, 2020. Recovery took 171 trading sessions.

The current Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio drawdown is 5.85%.

Depth	Start	To Bottom	Bottom	To Recover	End	Total
-38.24%	Jan 21, 2020	44	Mar 23, 2020	171	Nov 23, 2020	215
-25.31%	Nov 9, 2021	233	Oct 12, 2022	365	Mar 27, 2024	598
-24.64%	May 2, 2011	108	Oct 3, 2011	304	Dec 18, 2012	412
-20.07%	Jan 29, 2018	229	Dec 24, 2018	234	Nov 27, 2019	463
-19.7%	May 18, 2015	187	Feb 11, 2016	142	Sep 2, 2016	329

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.

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Diversification

Diversification Metrics

Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 10 assets, with an effective number of assets of 10.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets indicates a moderate level of diversification, where some assets may have a more significant influence on overall performance.

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

	Benchmark	VNQ	VWO	VIOV	VIOO	DLS	EFV	VTV	VV	VSS	VEU	Portfolio
Benchmark	1.00	0.62	0.71	0.74	0.79	0.76	0.76	0.89	1.00	0.79	0.82	0.89
VNQ	0.62	1.00	0.46	0.58	0.61	0.54	0.54	0.65	0.62	0.54	0.55	0.69
VWO	0.71	0.46	1.00	0.57	0.59	0.77	0.76	0.65	0.71	0.85	0.88	0.82
VIOV	0.74	0.58	0.57	1.00	0.93	0.65	0.67	0.80	0.74	0.67	0.67	0.84
VIOO	0.79	0.61	0.59	0.93	1.00	0.68	0.69	0.82	0.79	0.70	0.70	0.87
DLS	0.76	0.54	0.77	0.65	0.68	1.00	0.91	0.74	0.76	0.93	0.92	0.89
EFV	0.76	0.54	0.76	0.67	0.69	0.91	1.00	0.79	0.76	0.89	0.95	0.90
VTV	0.89	0.65	0.65	0.80	0.82	0.74	0.79	1.00	0.88	0.75	0.78	0.90
VV	1.00	0.62	0.71	0.74	0.79	0.76	0.76	0.88	1.00	0.79	0.82	0.89
VSS	0.79	0.54	0.85	0.67	0.70	0.93	0.89	0.75	0.79	1.00	0.95	0.92
VEU	0.82	0.55	0.88	0.67	0.70	0.92	0.95	0.78	0.82	0.95	1.00	0.93
Portfolio	0.89	0.69	0.82	0.84	0.87	0.89	0.90	0.90	0.89	0.92	0.93	1.00

The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Sep 10, 2010

Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio

Asset Allocation

Performance

Performance Chart

Returns By Period

Monthly Returns

Benchmark Metrics

Expense Ratio

Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Return / Risk — by metrics

Sharpe ratio

Sortino ratio

Omega ratio

Calmar ratio

Martin ratio

Sharpe Ratio

Dividends

Dividend yield

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

Worst Drawdowns

Volatility

Volatility Chart

Diversification

Diversification Metrics

Number of Effective Assets

Asset Correlations Table