Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio

Asset Allocation

Position	Category/Sector	Target Weight
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend	Foreign Small & Mid Cap Equities, Dividend	5.60%
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF	Foreign Large Cap Equities	5.60%
VCPAX Vanguard Core-Plus Bond Fund Admiral Shares	Total Bond Market	30%
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF	Foreign Large Cap Equities	5.60%
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF	Small Cap Blend Equities	8.40%
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF	Small Cap Value Equities	8.40%
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF	REIT	8.40%
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF	Foreign Small & Mid Cap Equities	5.60%
VTV Vanguard Value ETF	Large Cap Value Equities	8.40%
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF	Large Cap Growth Equities	8.40%
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF	Emerging Markets Equities	5.60%

Benchmark Against

Benchmark

S&P 500 Index

Rebalance

Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.

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The earliest data available for this chart is Oct 14, 2021, corresponding to the inception date of VCPAX

Returns By Period

	1D	1M	YTD	6M	1Y	3Y*	5Y*	10Y*
Benchmark S&P 500 Index	0.11%	-3.63%	-3.84%	-1.98%	29.73%	16.86%	10.37%	12.29%
Portfolio Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio	0.05%	-1.89%	1.63%	3.05%	23.40%	11.16%	—	—
Portfolio components:
VTV Vanguard Value ETF	0.16%	-2.10%	3.71%	6.17%	28.21%	14.94%	10.95%	11.89%
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF	0.30%	-1.74%	4.91%	6.50%	37.73%	10.40%	5.03%	9.69%
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF	0.14%	-3.51%	-3.97%	-1.97%	31.36%	18.69%	11.50%	14.18%
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF	-0.67%	-1.44%	2.90%	6.03%	38.94%	15.65%	7.59%	9.14%
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF	0.43%	-1.55%	4.49%	5.01%	34.57%	10.79%	4.29%	10.06%
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF	-0.72%	-1.88%	0.11%	0.16%	31.31%	13.41%	3.75%	7.73%
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF	-0.35%	0.47%	5.04%	11.68%	44.76%	20.46%	12.60%	9.75%
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend	-0.69%	-2.85%	1.82%	4.54%	40.08%	14.81%	6.85%	7.49%
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF	-0.89%	-2.73%	2.34%	4.29%	41.02%	13.86%	5.51%	7.76%
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF	1.36%	-3.58%	3.06%	0.66%	11.42%	7.33%	3.14%	4.85%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Oct 15, 2021, Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio's average daily return is +0.02%, while the average monthly return is +0.47%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 12.3 years.

Historically, 62% of months were positive and 38% were negative. The best month was Nov 2023 with a return of +7.5%, while the worst month was Sep 2022 at -8.3%. The longest winning streak lasted 10 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.

On a daily basis, Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio closed higher 52% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +4.9%, while the worst single day was Apr 4, 2025 at -3.8%.

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2026	3.38%	2.76%	-4.78%	0.47%									1.63%
2025	2.01%	0.43%	-1.49%	-0.48%	2.91%	3.31%	0.36%	3.74%	1.80%	0.20%	1.33%	0.60%	15.57%
2024	-1.63%	1.57%	2.66%	-3.43%	3.49%	-0.01%	4.73%	1.59%	2.01%	-2.62%	3.42%	-3.86%	7.70%
2023	6.78%	-2.97%	0.03%	0.52%	-2.54%	4.19%	3.11%	-2.75%	-3.81%	-3.25%	7.46%	6.52%	12.99%
2022	-3.43%	-1.56%	0.21%	-5.59%	0.72%	-6.33%	5.26%	-3.65%	-8.34%	4.65%	6.76%	-2.88%	-14.42%
2021										0.85%	-2.25%	3.55%	2.08%

Benchmark Metrics

Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio has an annualized alpha of -0.48%, beta of 0.59, and R² of 0.78 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since October 15, 2021.

This portfolio participated in 79.44% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 64.44% of its upside — more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
Beta of 0.59 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index — a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.

Alpha: -0.48%

Beta: 0.59

R²: 0.78

Upside Capture: 64.44%

Downside Capture: 79.44%

Expense Ratio

Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.16%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.

Top 10 holdings

DLS

WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend

EFV

iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF

VCPAX

Vanguard Core-Plus Bond Fund Admiral Shares

VNQ

Vanguard Real Estate ETF

VIOV

Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF

VIOO

Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF

VWO

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF

VEU

Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF

VSS

Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF

VTV

Vanguard Value ETF

Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio ranks 53 for risk / return — on par with similar portfolios. You're getting a typical balance of risk and reward. Not a standout, but not a red flag either — a reasonable choice if other factors align with your goals.

Overall Rank

Sharpe Ratio Rank

Sortino Ratio Rank

Omega Ratio Rank

Calmar Ratio Rank

Martin Ratio Rank

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics

	Portfolio	Benchmark	Difference
Sharpe ratio Return per unit of total volatility	1.35	0.88	+0.47
Sortino ratio Return per unit of downside risk	1.92	1.37	+0.55
Omega ratio Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.27	1.21	+0.07
Calmar ratio Return relative to maximum drawdown	1.79	1.39	+0.40
Martin ratio Return relative to average drawdown	7.78	6.43	+1.35
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

	Risk / Return Rank	Sharpe ratio	Sortino ratio	Omega ratio	Calmar ratio	Martin ratio
VTV Vanguard Value ETF	55	1.09	1.57	1.23	1.48	6.62
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF	48	0.95	1.46	1.19	1.55	5.76
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF	51	0.94	1.45	1.22	1.50	6.88
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF	78	1.62	2.23	1.33	2.46	9.28
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF	45	0.87	1.36	1.18	1.47	5.81
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF	61	1.22	1.74	1.25	1.78	6.68
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF	86	1.94	2.59	1.39	2.91	11.15
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend	83	1.88	2.52	1.38	2.67	10.03
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF	83	1.86	2.48	1.38	2.66	10.27
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF	15	0.18	0.36	1.05	0.29	1.11

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio Sharpe ratios as of Apr 4, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

1-Year: 1.35
All Time: 0.44

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 0.99 to 1.69, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio falls between the 25th and 75th percentiles. This indicates that its risk-adjusted performance is in line with the majority of portfolios, suggesting a balanced approach to risk and return—likely suitable for a wide range of investors.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.

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Dividends

Dividend yield

Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio provided a 3.10% dividend yield over the last twelve months.

	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Portfolio	3.10%	3.28%	3.52%	3.37%	2.98%	1.69%	1.48%	1.88%	2.02%	1.70%	1.80%	1.78%
Portfolio components:
VTV Vanguard Value ETF	2.02%	2.05%	2.31%	2.46%	2.52%	2.15%	2.56%	2.50%	2.73%	2.29%	2.44%	2.60%
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF	1.75%	1.69%	1.78%	2.18%	1.81%	1.59%	1.42%	1.60%	1.76%	1.43%	1.17%	1.32%
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF	1.12%	1.08%	1.24%	1.41%	1.66%	1.19%	1.46%	1.81%	2.09%	1.75%	1.98%	1.96%
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF	2.90%	3.09%	3.24%	3.32%	3.12%	3.08%	2.00%	3.10%	3.27%	2.66%	2.96%	2.95%
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF	1.30%	1.36%	1.48%	1.47%	1.51%	1.16%	1.09%	1.37%	1.32%	1.11%	1.06%	1.26%
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF	2.70%	2.79%	3.20%	3.52%	4.11%	2.63%	1.91%	3.23%	2.88%	2.30%	2.52%	3.26%
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF	3.96%	4.16%	4.66%	4.36%	4.17%	4.07%	2.42%	4.62%	4.56%	3.56%	3.28%	3.59%
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend	3.67%	3.87%	4.56%	4.29%	4.96%	3.29%	2.50%	3.37%	3.66%	2.79%	3.29%	2.72%
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF	3.31%	3.39%	3.44%	3.14%	2.30%	2.74%	1.90%	3.25%	2.80%	2.83%	2.93%	2.66%
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF	3.86%	3.92%	3.85%	3.95%	3.91%	2.56%	3.93%	3.39%	4.74%	4.23%	4.82%	3.92%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.

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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio was 22.06%, occurring on Oct 14, 2022. Recovery took 435 trading sessions.

The current Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio drawdown is 4.58%.

Depth	Start	To Bottom	Bottom	To Recover	End	Total
-22.06%	Nov 9, 2021	235	Oct 14, 2022	435	Jul 11, 2024	670
-11.17%	Dec 2, 2024	87	Apr 8, 2025	39	Jun 4, 2025	126
-6.8%	Feb 27, 2026	21	Mar 27, 2026	—	—	—
-4.12%	Aug 1, 2024	3	Aug 5, 2024	10	Aug 19, 2024	13
-3.73%	Oct 28, 2025	18	Nov 20, 2025	13	Dec 10, 2025	31

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.

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Diversification

Diversification Metrics

Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 11 assets, with an effective number of assets of 7.09, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets indicates a moderate level of diversification, where some assets may have a more significant influence on overall performance.

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

	Benchmark	VCPAX	VNQ	VWO	VIOV	VTV	EFV	VV	VIOO	DLS	VSS	VEU	Portfolio
Benchmark	1.00	0.19	0.62	0.64	0.75	0.80	0.66	1.00	0.80	0.70	0.75	0.77	0.85
VCPAX	0.19	1.00	0.34	0.18	0.19	0.17	0.24	0.19	0.19	0.29	0.29	0.26	0.38
VNQ	0.62	0.34	1.00	0.44	0.71	0.75	0.57	0.61	0.70	0.60	0.60	0.59	0.79
VWO	0.64	0.18	0.44	1.00	0.56	0.55	0.72	0.64	0.58	0.73	0.83	0.87	0.74
VIOV	0.75	0.19	0.71	0.56	1.00	0.83	0.68	0.74	0.98	0.68	0.71	0.70	0.90
VTV	0.80	0.17	0.75	0.55	0.83	1.00	0.72	0.79	0.84	0.69	0.71	0.72	0.87
EFV	0.66	0.24	0.57	0.72	0.68	0.72	1.00	0.65	0.68	0.91	0.88	0.92	0.84
VV	1.00	0.19	0.61	0.64	0.74	0.79	0.65	1.00	0.79	0.70	0.75	0.77	0.85
VIOO	0.80	0.19	0.70	0.58	0.98	0.84	0.68	0.79	1.00	0.69	0.73	0.72	0.91
DLS	0.70	0.29	0.60	0.73	0.68	0.69	0.91	0.70	0.69	1.00	0.93	0.92	0.86
VSS	0.75	0.29	0.60	0.83	0.71	0.71	0.88	0.75	0.73	0.93	1.00	0.95	0.89
VEU	0.77	0.26	0.59	0.87	0.70	0.72	0.92	0.77	0.72	0.92	0.95	1.00	0.89
Portfolio	0.85	0.38	0.79	0.74	0.90	0.87	0.84	0.85	0.91	0.86	0.89	0.89	1.00

The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Oct 15, 2021

Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio

Asset Allocation

Performance

Performance Chart

Returns By Period

Monthly Returns

Benchmark Metrics

Expense Ratio

Top 10 holdings

Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Return / Risk — by metrics

Sharpe ratio

Sortino ratio

Omega ratio

Calmar ratio

Martin ratio

Sharpe Ratio

Dividends

Dividend yield

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

Worst Drawdowns

Volatility

Volatility Chart

Diversification

Diversification Metrics

Number of Effective Assets

Asset Correlations Table