Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | Financial Services | 9.09% |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A | Communication Services | 9.09% |
PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | Financial Services | 9.09% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | Large Cap Growth Equities | 9.09% |
SHV iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 9.09% |
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF | Semiconductors, Technology Equities | 9.09% |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | 9.09% |
UVXY ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF | Leveraged, Volatility | 9.09% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Large Cap Blend Equities | 9.09% |
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | Emerging Markets Equities | 9.09% |
VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock ETF | Foreign Large Cap Equities | 9.09% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in 40's, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Jul 20, 2015, corresponding to the inception date of PYPL
Returns By Period
As of Apr 7, 2026, the 40's returned 0.77% Year-To-Date and 11.48% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.44% | -1.90% | -3.41% | -1.91% | 30.31% | 17.22% | 10.14% | 12.44% |
Portfolio 40's | -0.05% | -1.27% | 0.77% | -0.27% | 20.27% | 12.08% | 2.53% | 11.48% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.45% | -1.56% | -2.70% | -1.22% | 32.43% | 18.56% | 10.52% | 13.90% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.60% | -1.75% | -4.08% | -2.91% | 39.91% | 23.49% | 12.83% | 19.23% |
VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock ETF | 0.63% | 0.09% | 3.46% | 6.23% | 40.04% | 15.81% | 7.50% | 9.05% |
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.93% | 4.05% | 9.95% | 15.68% | 119.70% | 47.06% | 26.39% | 31.90% |
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | 0.35% | -0.84% | 0.47% | 0.17% | 31.77% | 13.62% | 3.99% | 7.88% |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A | 1.43% | 0.56% | -4.09% | 19.95% | 106.75% | 40.77% | 21.99% | 23.06% |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -2.15% | -11.07% | -21.55% | -22.16% | 47.36% | 24.00% | 9.55% | 35.69% |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | -0.20% | -4.53% | -5.23% | -4.73% | -3.48% | 15.09% | 12.56% | 12.94% |
SHV iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF | 0.01% | 0.27% | 0.87% | 1.82% | 3.97% | 4.67% | 3.20% | 2.17% |
PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | 0.31% | -3.17% | -21.86% | -35.86% | -21.67% | -15.19% | -29.12% | 1.76% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jul 21, 2015, 40's's average daily return is +0.05%, while the average monthly return is +0.93%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 6.2 years.
Historically, 58% of months were positive and 42% were negative. The best month was Aug 2020 with a return of +13.4%, while the worst month was Dec 2022 at -8.0%. The longest winning streak lasted 11 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 4 months.
On a daily basis, 40's closed higher 52% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 16, 2020 with a return of +9.6%, while the worst single day was Mar 23, 2020 at -11.0%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.73% | -0.64% | -0.42% | 0.10% | 0.77% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 1.72% | -5.16% | -2.22% | 4.13% | 3.43% | 1.66% | -1.24% | 2.05% | 6.29% | 3.62% | -0.67% | -2.00% | 11.61% |
| 2024 | -1.55% | 2.53% | 2.26% | -0.13% | 0.43% | 1.98% | 3.56% | -0.16% | 5.36% | 1.06% | 1.54% | 2.55% | 21.04% |
| 2023 | 8.34% | -0.72% | 3.74% | -3.42% | 2.00% | 3.66% | 3.62% | -3.74% | -2.71% | -5.05% | 4.73% | 3.34% | 13.64% |
| 2022 | -2.53% | -2.97% | 0.53% | -7.24% | -4.38% | -7.51% | 7.64% | -3.45% | -5.88% | -1.57% | 3.57% | -7.96% | -28.43% |
| 2021 | 5.40% | -2.01% | -2.50% | 3.06% | -1.70% | 1.99% | 0.55% | 1.12% | -2.73% | 3.72% | -0.06% | -1.82% | 4.72% |
Benchmark Metrics
40's has an annualized alpha of 8.31%, beta of 0.28, and R² of 0.13 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since July 21, 2015.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (48.82%) than losses (28.20%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- Beta of 0.28 may look defensive, but with R² of 0.13 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index — low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R² of 0.13 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index — capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 8.31%
- Beta
- 0.28
- R²
- 0.13
- Upside Capture
- 48.82%
- Downside Capture
- 28.20%
Expense Ratio
40's has an expense ratio of 0.16%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
40's ranks 71 for risk / return — better than 71% of portfolios on our site. You're getting solid returns for the risk taken. A good sign, especially for investors who want growth without excessive volatility.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 2.11 | 1.84 | +0.27 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 3.04 | 2.97 | +0.07 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.38 | 1.40 | -0.02 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 4.58 | 1.82 | +2.76 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 10.87 | 7.76 | +3.12 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 81 | 1.89 | 3.04 | 1.42 | 2.06 | 8.60 |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 79 | 1.91 | 2.97 | 1.40 | 2.02 | 7.51 |
VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock ETF | 87 | 2.53 | 3.60 | 1.49 | 2.56 | 9.93 |
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 97 | 3.46 | 4.17 | 1.57 | 5.73 | 20.62 |
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | 76 | 1.90 | 2.71 | 1.37 | 1.98 | 7.00 |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A | 95 | 3.57 | 4.58 | 1.57 | 4.50 | 17.12 |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | 64 | 0.88 | 1.56 | 1.19 | 0.89 | 2.18 |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | 21 | -0.21 | -0.17 | 0.98 | -0.76 | -1.30 |
SHV iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF | 100 | 19.58 | 152.33 | 54.64 | 443.15 | 2,490.75 |
PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | 16 | -0.54 | -0.51 | 0.93 | -0.64 | -1.43 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
40's provided a 1.12% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 1.12% | 1.13% | 1.29% | 1.29% | 1.11% | 0.72% | 0.68% | 1.14% | 1.14% | 0.88% | 0.87% | 1.02% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1.16% | 1.12% | 1.27% | 1.44% | 1.66% | 1.21% | 1.42% | 1.78% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 1.92% | 1.98% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.48% | 0.45% | 0.56% | 0.62% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.55% | 0.74% | 0.91% | 0.84% | 1.06% | 0.99% |
VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock ETF | 2.93% | 3.18% | 3.37% | 3.24% | 3.09% | 3.10% | 2.14% | 3.06% | 3.18% | 2.73% | 2.93% | 2.83% |
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.28% | 0.31% | 0.44% | 0.60% | 1.18% | 0.51% | 0.69% | 1.50% | 1.88% | 1.43% | 0.80% | 2.14% |
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | 2.69% | 2.79% | 3.20% | 3.52% | 4.11% | 2.63% | 1.91% | 3.23% | 2.88% | 2.30% | 2.52% | 3.26% |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A | 0.28% | 0.27% | 0.32% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
SHV iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF | 3.93% | 4.09% | 5.02% | 4.73% | 1.39% | 0.00% | 0.74% | 2.19% | 1.66% | 0.72% | 0.34% | 0.03% |
PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | 0.62% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the 40's. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the 40's was 33.20%, occurring on Dec 28, 2022. Recovery took 677 trading sessions.
The current 40's drawdown is 2.17%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -33.2% | Feb 17, 2021 | 471 | Dec 28, 2022 | 677 | Sep 11, 2025 | 1148 |
| -19.62% | Mar 19, 2020 | 12 | Apr 3, 2020 | 40 | Jun 2, 2020 | 52 |
| -16.62% | Sep 2, 2015 | 316 | Dec 1, 2016 | 286 | Jan 23, 2018 | 602 |
| -9.91% | Sep 3, 2020 | 14 | Sep 23, 2020 | 44 | Nov 24, 2020 | 58 |
| -7.6% | Apr 4, 2019 | 41 | Jun 3, 2019 | 102 | Oct 25, 2019 | 143 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 11 assets, with an effective number of assets of 11.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests that the portfolio's investments are spread across a variety of assets, indicating a well-diversified allocation. However, true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | SHV | TSLA | BRK-B | PYPL | GOOGL | UVXY | VWO | SMH | VXUS | QQQ | VTI | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | -0.04 | 0.48 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.69 | -0.77 | 0.68 | 0.78 | 0.80 | 0.91 | 0.99 | 0.56 |
| SHV | -0.04 | 1.00 | -0.04 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.03 | 0.09 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.04 | 0.02 |
| TSLA | 0.48 | -0.04 | 1.00 | 0.22 | 0.38 | 0.39 | -0.40 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 0.39 | 0.55 | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| BRK-B | 0.65 | -0.07 | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 0.36 | -0.52 | 0.42 | 0.38 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.64 | 0.27 |
| PYPL | 0.61 | -0.03 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.50 | -0.50 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| GOOGL | 0.69 | -0.03 | 0.39 | 0.36 | 0.50 | 1.00 | -0.55 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.76 | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| UVXY | -0.77 | 0.09 | -0.40 | -0.52 | -0.50 | -0.55 | 1.00 | -0.59 | -0.62 | -0.66 | -0.71 | -0.77 | -0.22 |
| VWO | 0.68 | -0.02 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.50 | -0.59 | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.88 | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.49 |
| SMH | 0.78 | -0.03 | 0.46 | 0.38 | 0.52 | 0.58 | -0.62 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.58 |
| VXUS | 0.80 | -0.01 | 0.39 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.54 | -0.66 | 0.88 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.80 | 0.51 |
| QQQ | 0.91 | -0.04 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.65 | 0.76 | -0.71 | 0.65 | 0.84 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.64 |
| VTI | 0.99 | -0.04 | 0.49 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.67 | -0.77 | 0.69 | 0.77 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| Portfolio | 0.56 | 0.02 | 0.64 | 0.27 | 0.55 | 0.52 | -0.22 | 0.49 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 0.64 | 0.57 | 1.00 |