UPRO vs. CAOS

Last updated Jul 17, 2026

UPRO (ProShares UltraPro S&P 500) and CAOS (Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - UPRO is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the S&P 500, while CAOS is a Options Trading fund actively managed by Alpha Architect. UPRO is passively managed, while CAOS is actively managed. Over the past 3 years, UPRO returned 43.89%/yr vs 3.60%/yr for CAOS. At a 0.09 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. UPRO charges 0.89%/yr vs 0.63%/yr for CAOS.

Performance

UPRO vs. CAOS - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) and Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, UPRO achieves a 24.61% return, which is significantly higher than CAOS's 0.80% return.

UPRO

• 1D: -1.55%
• 1M: -0.15%
• 6M: 19.67%
• YTD: 24.61%
• 1Y: 54.64%
• 3Y*: 43.89%
• 5Y*: 20.84%
• 10Y*: 28.60%

CAOS

• 1D: -0.04%
• 1M: 0.13%
• 6M: 0.30%
• YTD: 0.80%
• 1Y: 1.82%
• 3Y*: 3.60%
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

UPRO vs. CAOS - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500	24.61%	31.88%	63.57%	47.79%
CAOS Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF	0.80%	2.55%	5.33%	7.43%

Correlation

The correlation between UPRO and CAOS is -0.35, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.35
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	-0.05
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Mar 6, 2023	0.09

The correlation between UPRO and CAOS shifts across timeframes, from -0.35 (1 year) to 0.09 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.

Return for Risk

UPRO vs. CAOS — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

UPRO

UPRO Risk / Return Rank: 51
UPRO Sharpe Ratio Rank: 53
UPRO Sortino Ratio Rank: 47
UPRO Omega Ratio Rank: 48
UPRO Calmar Ratio Rank: 50
UPRO Martin Ratio Rank: 58

CAOS

CAOS Risk / Return Rank: 46
CAOS Sharpe Ratio Rank: 40
CAOS Sortino Ratio Rank: 45
CAOS Omega Ratio Rank: 45
CAOS Calmar Ratio Rank: 60
CAOS Martin Ratio Rank: 42

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

UPRO vs. CAOS - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) and Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	UPRO	CAOS	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	1.46	1.19	+0.28
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	1.96	1.88	+0.07
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.25	1.24	+0.01
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	2.05	2.41	-0.36
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	8.08	5.44	+2.65

UPRO vs. CAOS - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current UPRO Sharpe Ratio is 1.46, which is comparable to the CAOS Sharpe Ratio of 1.19. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of UPRO and CAOS, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

UPRO vs. CAOS - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum UPRO drawdown since its inception was -76.82%, which is greater than CAOS's maximum drawdown of -3.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UPRO and CAOS.

Drawdown Indicators

	UPRO	CAOS	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-76.82%	-3.89%	-72.93%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-26.78%	-0.76%	-26.02%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-48.87%	-3.60%	-45.27%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-63.94%	—	—
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-76.82%	—	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-4.60%	-1.08%	-3.52%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-14.36%	-0.92%	-13.44%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	6.78%	0.34%	+6.44%

Volatility

UPRO vs. CAOS - Volatility Comparison

ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) has a higher volatility of 10.61% compared to Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS) at 0.48%. This indicates that UPRO's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than CAOS based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	UPRO	CAOS	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	10.61%	0.48%	+10.13%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	30.01%	1.09%	+28.92%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	37.59%	1.55%	+36.04%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	50.67%	4.20%	+46.47%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	53.71%	4.20%	+49.51%

UPRO vs. CAOS - Expense Ratio Comparison

UPRO has a 0.89% expense ratio, which is higher than CAOS's 0.63% expense ratio.

Dividends

UPRO vs. CAOS - Dividend Comparison

UPRO's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 0.75%, while CAOS has not paid dividends to shareholders.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
CAOS Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500	0.75%	0.84%	0.93%	0.74%	0.52%	0.06%	0.11%	0.41%	0.63%	0.00%	0.12%	0.34%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both UPRO and CAOS in my portfolio?

UPRO and CAOS have a correlation of -0.35, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, UPRO or CAOS?

UPRO has higher volatility (10.61%) compared to CAOS (0.48%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UPRO dropped -76.82% vs CAOS's -3.89%.

Which ETF is better, UPRO or CAOS?

On 3-year performance, UPRO leads with 43.89% vs 3.60% for CAOS. On fees, CAOS is cheaper at 0.63% per year. On volatility, CAOS has been the lower-risk option at 0.48%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, UPRO or CAOS?

Over the 3-year period, UPRO has performed better with a 43.89% return vs 3.60%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, UPRO or CAOS?

CAOS is cheaper with a 0.63% expense ratio, compared with 0.89% for UPRO.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, UPRO or CAOS?

UPRO has the higher dividend yield at 0.75%, compared with 0.00% for CAOS.

What is the main difference between UPRO and CAOS?

UPRO is categorized as Leveraged Equities, while CAOS is Options Trading. They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Alpha Architect. Their fees differ too: 0.89% for UPRO and 0.63% for CAOS.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

UPRO currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.46 vs 1.19), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.