UPRO vs. TMF
UPRO (ProShares UltraPro S&P 500) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - UPRO is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the S&P 500, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UPRO returned 29.76%/yr vs -16.87%/yr for TMF. At a correlation of -0.24, they often move in opposite directions. UPRO charges 0.89%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
UPRO vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UPRO achieves a 20.70% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -5.18% return. Over the past 10 years, UPRO has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 29.76%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.87% annualized return.
UPRO
- 1D
- 1.54%
- 1M
- -3.92%
- YTD
- 20.70%
- 6M
- 21.09%
- 1Y
- 70.79%
- 3Y*
- 46.83%
- 5Y*
- 21.40%
- 10Y*
- 29.76%
TMF
- 1D
- -0.93%
- 1M
- 2.90%
- YTD
- -5.18%
- 6M
- -5.04%
- 1Y
- -1.79%
- 3Y*
- -19.82%
- 5Y*
- -31.10%
- 10Y*
- -16.87%
UPRO vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 20.70% | 31.88% | 63.57% | 68.53% | -56.84% | 98.64% | 10.09% | 102.30% | -25.11% | 71.37% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -5.18% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between UPRO and TMF is 0.23, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.23 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.18 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.07 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jun 25, 2009 | -0.24 |
The correlation between UPRO and TMF shifts across timeframes, from -0.24 (all time) to 0.23 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
UPRO vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
UPRO
TMF
UPRO vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UPRO | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +1.95 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +2.29 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.30 | 0.99 | +0.30 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.43 | -0.19 | +2.62 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 10.01 | -0.41 | +10.43 |
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Drawdowns
UPRO vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UPRO drawdown since its inception was -76.82%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UPRO and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UPRO | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -76.82% | -92.89% | +16.07% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.78% | -26.51% | -0.27% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.87% | -56.31% | +7.44% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -63.94% | -88.81% | +24.87% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -76.82% | -92.89% | +16.07% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -7.60% | -92.15% | +84.55% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -14.40% | -43.70% | +29.30% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 6.50% | 11.96% | -5.46% |
Volatility
UPRO vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) has a higher volatility of 13.22% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 8.43%. This indicates that UPRO's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UPRO | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 13.22% | 8.43% | +4.79% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 28.74% | 19.46% | +9.28% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 36.77% | 28.49% | +8.28% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 50.52% | 46.72% | +3.80% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 53.83% | 43.92% | +9.91% |
UPRO vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
UPRO has a 0.89% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
UPRO vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
UPRO's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 0.72%, less than TMF's 4.11% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.11% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 0.72% | 0.84% | 0.93% | 0.74% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.41% | 0.63% | 0.00% | 0.12% | 0.34% |
Frequently Asked Questions
UPRO and TMF have a correlation of 0.23, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UPRO has higher volatility (13.22%) compared to TMF (8.43%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UPRO dropped -76.82% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, UPRO leads with 29.76% vs -16.87% for TMF. On fees, UPRO is cheaper at 0.89% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 8.43%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UPRO has performed better with a 29.76% return vs -16.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UPRO is cheaper with a 0.89% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.11%, compared with 0.72% for UPRO.
UPRO is categorized as Leveraged Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. UPRO tracks S&P 500, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.89% for UPRO and 1.01% for TMF.
UPRO currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.77 vs -0.17), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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