UPRO vs. TMF
UPRO (ProShares UltraPro S&P 500) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - UPRO is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the S&P 500, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UPRO returned 29.51%/yr vs -17.83%/yr for TMF. At a correlation of -0.24, they often move in opposite directions. UPRO charges 0.89%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
UPRO vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UPRO achieves a 22.15% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -5.26% return. Over the past 10 years, UPRO has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 29.51%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -17.83% annualized return.
UPRO
- 1D
- -0.44%
- 1M
- -4.49%
- 6M
- 21.55%
- YTD
- 22.15%
- 1Y
- 50.19%
- 3Y*
- 44.88%
- 5Y*
- 19.92%
- 10Y*
- 29.51%
TMF
- 1D
- -0.06%
- 1M
- 0.92%
- 6M
- -4.70%
- YTD
- -5.26%
- 1Y
- -4.78%
- 3Y*
- -20.42%
- 5Y*
- -31.89%
- 10Y*
- -17.83%
UPRO vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 22.15% | 31.88% | 63.57% | 68.53% | -56.84% | 98.64% | 10.09% | 102.30% | -25.11% | 71.37% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -5.26% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between UPRO and TMF is 0.21, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.21 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.19 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.08 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jun 25, 2009 | -0.24 |
The correlation between UPRO and TMF shifts across timeframes, from -0.24 (all time) to 0.21 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
UPRO vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
UPRO
TMF
UPRO vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UPRO | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +1.68 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +2.09 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.25 | 0.98 | +0.27 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.01 | -0.25 | +2.26 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 8.00 | -0.53 | +8.53 |
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Drawdowns
UPRO vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UPRO drawdown since its inception was -76.82%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UPRO and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UPRO | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -76.82% | -92.89% | +16.07% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.78% | -26.51% | -0.27% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.87% | -55.14% | +6.27% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -63.94% | -88.81% | +24.87% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -76.82% | -92.89% | +16.07% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -6.49% | -92.16% | +85.67% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -14.38% | -43.84% | +29.46% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 6.73% | 12.47% | -5.74% |
Volatility
UPRO vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) has a higher volatility of 15.50% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 8.26%. This indicates that UPRO's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UPRO | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 15.50% | 8.26% | +7.24% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 29.83% | 19.93% | +9.90% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 37.47% | 28.09% | +9.38% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 50.67% | 46.61% | +4.06% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 53.71% | 43.78% | +9.93% |
UPRO vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
UPRO has a 0.89% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
UPRO vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
UPRO's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 0.77%, less than TMF's 4.17% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.17% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 0.77% | 0.84% | 0.93% | 0.74% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.41% | 0.63% | 0.00% | 0.12% | 0.34% |
Frequently Asked Questions
UPRO and TMF have a correlation of 0.21, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UPRO has higher volatility (15.50%) compared to TMF (8.26%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UPRO dropped -76.82% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, UPRO leads with 29.51% vs -17.83% for TMF. On fees, UPRO is cheaper at 0.89% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 8.26%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UPRO has performed better with a 29.51% return vs -17.83%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UPRO is cheaper with a 0.89% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.17%, compared with 0.77% for UPRO.
UPRO is categorized as Leveraged Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. UPRO tracks S&P 500, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.89% for UPRO and 1.01% for TMF.
UPRO currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.44 vs -0.24), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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