UMAR vs. CAOS

Last updated Aug 2, 2026

UMAR (Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - March) and CAOS (Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - UMAR is a Defined Outcome fund tracking the S&P 500 Index, while CAOS is a Options Trading fund actively managed by Alpha Architect. UMAR is passively managed, while CAOS is actively managed. Over the past 3 years, UMAR returned 11.87%/yr vs 3.48%/yr for CAOS. Their 0.10 correlation means their historical movements had little consistent relationship. UMAR charges 0.79%/yr vs 0.63%/yr for CAOS.

Performance

UMAR vs. CAOS - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - March (UMAR) and Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, UMAR achieves a 6.28% return, which is significantly higher than CAOS's 0.76% return.

UMAR

• 1D: 0.31%
• 1M: 0.65%
• 6M: 5.52%
• YTD: 6.28%
• 1Y: 12.30%
• 3Y*: 11.87%
• 5Y*: 7.78%
• 10Y*: —
• ALL TIME*: 7.78%

CAOS

• 1D: -0.06%
• 1M: -0.01%
• 6M: 0.16%
• YTD: 0.76%
• 1Y: 1.73%
• 3Y*: 3.48%
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —
• ALL TIME*: 4.70%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Liquidity Comparison

Position	Avg. Volume Value (2W)	Avg. Volume Value (1M)	Avg. Volume Value (3M)
CAOS Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF	$6.81M	$5.39M	$5.09M
UMAR Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - March	$255.05K	$641.31K	$640.48K

UMAR vs. CAOS - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023
UMAR Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - March	6.28%	11.94%	12.94%	11.50%
CAOS Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF	0.76%	2.55%	5.33%	7.43%

Correlation

The correlation between UMAR and CAOS is -0.32, meaning they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. This relationship can weaken or reverse as market conditions change.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most.	-0.32
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history.	-0.04
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Mar 6, 2023	0.10

The correlation between UMAR and CAOS shifts across timeframes, from -0.32 (1 year) to 0.10 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.

Return for Risk

UMAR vs. CAOS — Risk / Return Rank

Compare historical risk-adjusted metric ranks over the past 12 months.

UMAR

UMAR Risk / Return Rank: 90
UMAR Sharpe Ratio Rank: 90
UMAR Sortino Ratio Rank: 91
UMAR Omega Ratio Rank: 92
UMAR Calmar Ratio Rank: 84
UMAR Martin Ratio Rank: 93

CAOS

CAOS Risk / Return Rank: 56
CAOS Sharpe Ratio Rank: 49
CAOS Sortino Ratio Rank: 55
CAOS Omega Ratio Rank: 54
CAOS Calmar Ratio Rank: 72
CAOS Martin Ratio Rank: 48

The rank (0–100) uses a weighted average of the Sharpe, Sortino, Omega, Calmar, and Martin percentile ranks for the trailing 12 months. Higher means stronger historical risk-adjusted performance within the peer group.

UMAR vs. CAOS - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - March (UMAR) and Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	UMAR	CAOS	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	2.27	1.19	+1.08
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	3.27	1.89	+1.38
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.46	1.24	+0.22
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	3.22	2.47	+0.75
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	17.21	5.45	+11.76

UMAR vs. CAOS - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current UMAR Sharpe Ratio is 2.27, which is higher than the CAOS Sharpe Ratio of 1.19. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of UMAR and CAOS, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

UMAR vs. CAOS - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum UMAR drawdown since its inception was -11.08%, which is greater than CAOS's maximum drawdown of -3.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UMAR and CAOS.

Drawdown Indicators

	UMAR	CAOS	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-11.08%	-3.89%	-7.19%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-3.61%	-0.76%	-2.85%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-7.41%	-3.60%	-3.81%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-8.72%	—	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-0.06%	-1.13%	+1.07%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-1.60%	-0.92%	-0.68%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	0.68%	0.34%	+0.34%

Volatility

UMAR vs. CAOS - Volatility Comparison

Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - March (UMAR) has a higher volatility of 1.20% compared to Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS) at 0.51%. This indicates that UMAR's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than CAOS based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	UMAR	CAOS	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	1.20%	0.51%	+0.69%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	4.23%	1.07%	+3.16%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	5.12%	1.57%	+3.55%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	6.59%	4.18%	+2.41%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	7.48%	4.18%	+3.30%

UMAR vs. CAOS - Expense Ratio Comparison

UMAR has a 0.79% expense ratio, which is higher than CAOS's 0.63% expense ratio.

Dividends

UMAR vs. CAOS - Dividend Comparison

Neither UMAR nor CAOS has paid dividends to shareholders.

Tickers have no history of dividend payments

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both UMAR and CAOS in my portfolio?

UMAR and CAOS have a correlation of -0.32, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, UMAR or CAOS?

UMAR has higher volatility (1.20%) compared to CAOS (0.51%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UMAR dropped -11.08% vs CAOS's -3.89%.

Which ETF is better, UMAR or CAOS?

On 3-year performance, UMAR leads with 11.87% vs 3.48% for CAOS. On fees, CAOS is cheaper at 0.63% per year. On volatility, CAOS has been the lower-risk option at 0.51%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, UMAR or CAOS?

Over the 3-year period, UMAR has performed better with a 11.87% return vs 3.48%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, UMAR or CAOS?

CAOS is cheaper with a 0.63% expense ratio, compared with 0.79% for UMAR.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, UMAR or CAOS?

UMAR and CAOS have nearly identical dividend yields, around 0.00%.

What is the main difference between UMAR and CAOS?

UMAR is categorized as Defined Outcome, while CAOS is Options Trading. They also come from different issuers: Innovator and Alpha Architect. Their fees differ too: 0.79% for UMAR and 0.63% for CAOS.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

UMAR currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.27 vs 1.19), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.