TBLLX vs. SPY

Last updated Jun 24, 2026

TBLLX (T. Rowe Price Retirement Blend 2050 Fund) and SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) are both funds - TBLLX is a Target Retirement Date fund managed by T. Rowe Price, while SPY is a S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Over the past 3 years, TBLLX returned 19.20%/yr vs 20.68%/yr for SPY. Their correlation of 0.94 suggests significant overlap in exposure. TBLLX charges 0.43%/yr vs 0.09%/yr for SPY.

Performance

TBLLX vs. SPY - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in T. Rowe Price Retirement Blend 2050 Fund (TBLLX) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, TBLLX achieves a 11.57% return, which is significantly higher than SPY's 8.15% return.

TBLLX

• 1D: -0.07%
• 1M: 1.34%
• YTD: 11.57%
• 6M: 10.79%
• 1Y: 26.54%
• 3Y*: 19.20%
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

SPY

• 1D: -1.45%
• 1M: -1.36%
• YTD: 8.15%
• 6M: 7.20%
• 1Y: 23.59%
• 3Y*: 20.68%
• 5Y*: 13.05%
• 10Y*: 15.53%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

TBLLX vs. SPY - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
TBLLX T. Rowe Price Retirement Blend 2050 Fund	11.57%	20.35%	15.04%	21.21%	-18.10%	4.24%
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF	8.15%	17.72%	24.89%	26.18%	-18.18%	8.51%

Correlation

The correlation between TBLLX and SPY is 0.94, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.94
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.93
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jul 30, 2021	0.94

The correlation between TBLLX and SPY has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.93 to 0.94 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

TBLLX vs. SPY — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

TBLLX

TBLLX Risk / Return Rank: 64
TBLLX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 64
TBLLX Sortino Ratio Rank: 59
TBLLX Omega Ratio Rank: 61
TBLLX Calmar Ratio Rank: 64
TBLLX Martin Ratio Rank: 71

SPY

SPY Risk / Return Rank: 59
SPY Sharpe Ratio Rank: 58
SPY Sortino Ratio Rank: 56
SPY Omega Ratio Rank: 57
SPY Calmar Ratio Rank: 56
SPY Martin Ratio Rank: 67

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

TBLLX vs. SPY - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for T. Rowe Price Retirement Blend 2050 Fund (TBLLX) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	TBLLX	SPY	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	2.16	1.90	+0.26
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	2.96	2.58	+0.38
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.40	1.34	+0.05
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	2.92	2.67	+0.25
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	12.71	11.92	+0.79

TBLLX vs. SPY - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current TBLLX Sharpe Ratio is 2.16, which is comparable to the SPY Sharpe Ratio of 1.90. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of TBLLX and SPY, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

TBLLX vs. SPY - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum TBLLX drawdown since its inception was -26.50%, smaller than the maximum SPY drawdown of -55.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TBLLX and SPY.

Drawdown Indicators

	TBLLX	SPY	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-26.50%	-55.19%	+28.69%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-9.43%	-8.88%	-0.55%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-16.11%	-18.76%	+2.65%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	—	-24.50%	—
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-33.72%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-0.62%	-3.17%	+2.55%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-6.52%	-9.04%	+2.52%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	2.16%	1.98%	+0.18%

Volatility

TBLLX vs. SPY - Volatility Comparison

T. Rowe Price Retirement Blend 2050 Fund (TBLLX) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) have volatilities of 4.80% and 4.87%, respectively, indicating that both stocks experience similar levels of price fluctuations. This suggests that the risk associated with both stocks, as measured by volatility, is nearly the same. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	TBLLX	SPY	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	4.80%	4.87%	-0.07%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	10.51%	9.85%	+0.66%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	12.79%	12.50%	+0.29%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	15.59%	17.15%	-1.56%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	15.59%	17.95%	-2.36%

TBLLX vs. SPY - Expense Ratio Comparison

TBLLX has a 0.43% expense ratio, which is higher than SPY's 0.09% expense ratio.

Dividends

TBLLX vs. SPY - Dividend Comparison

TBLLX's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.22%, more than SPY's 1.03% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF	1.03%	1.07%	1.21%	1.40%	1.65%	1.20%	1.52%	1.75%	2.04%	1.80%	2.03%	2.06%
TBLLX T. Rowe Price Retirement Blend 2050 Fund	2.22%	2.47%	1.92%	1.72%	1.96%	2.20%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both TBLLX and SPY in my portfolio?

With a correlation of 0.94, TBLLX and SPY move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.

Which is riskier, TBLLX or SPY?

SPY has higher volatility (4.87%) compared to TBLLX (4.80%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TBLLX dropped -26.50% vs SPY's -55.19%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

TBLLX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.16 vs 1.90), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.