NOCT vs. CAOS

Last updated Jul 22, 2026

NOCT (Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - October) and CAOS (Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - NOCT is a Defined Outcome fund actively managed by Innovator, while CAOS is a Options Trading fund actively managed by Alpha Architect. Both are actively managed. Over the past 3 years, NOCT returned 14.32%/yr vs 3.63%/yr for CAOS. At a correlation of -0.00, they often move in opposite directions. NOCT charges 0.79%/yr vs 0.63%/yr for CAOS.

Performance

NOCT vs. CAOS - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - October (NOCT) and Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, NOCT achieves a 7.95% return, which is significantly higher than CAOS's 0.95% return.

NOCT

• 1D: 0.80%
• 1M: 0.18%
• 6M: 8.64%
• YTD: 7.95%
• 1Y: 13.41%
• 3Y*: 14.32%
• 5Y*: 10.12%
• 10Y*: —
• ALL TIME*: 10.89%

CAOS

• 1D: -0.15%
• 1M: 0.30%
• 6M: 0.18%
• YTD: 0.95%
• 1Y: 1.98%
• 3Y*: 3.63%
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —
• ALL TIME*: 4.80%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

NOCT vs. CAOS - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023
NOCT Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - October	7.95%	12.81%	12.10%	20.97%
CAOS Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF	0.95%	2.55%	5.33%	7.43%

Correlation

The correlation between NOCT and CAOS is -0.37, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.37
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	-0.13
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Mar 6, 2023	-0.00

Over the past year, the inverse relationship between NOCT and CAOS has strengthened: their correlation has moved from -0.00 to -0.37, meaning they now move in opposite directions more often than their long-term average.

Return for Risk

NOCT vs. CAOS — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

NOCT

NOCT Risk / Return Rank: 70
NOCT Sharpe Ratio Rank: 70
NOCT Sortino Ratio Rank: 70
NOCT Omega Ratio Rank: 74
NOCT Calmar Ratio Rank: 61
NOCT Martin Ratio Rank: 76

CAOS

CAOS Risk / Return Rank: 56
CAOS Sharpe Ratio Rank: 49
CAOS Sortino Ratio Rank: 56
CAOS Omega Ratio Rank: 56
CAOS Calmar Ratio Rank: 70
CAOS Martin Ratio Rank: 48

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

NOCT vs. CAOS - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - October (NOCT) and Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	NOCT	CAOS	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	1.72	1.27	+0.45
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	2.44	2.03	+0.41
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.33	1.26	+0.07
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	2.31	2.62	-0.31
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	10.54	5.89	+4.65

NOCT vs. CAOS - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current NOCT Sharpe Ratio is 1.72, which is higher than the CAOS Sharpe Ratio of 1.27. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of NOCT and CAOS, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

NOCT vs. CAOS - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum NOCT drawdown since its inception was -16.21%, which is greater than CAOS's maximum drawdown of -3.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for NOCT and CAOS.

Drawdown Indicators

	NOCT	CAOS	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-16.21%	-3.89%	-12.32%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-5.84%	-0.76%	-5.08%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-12.70%	-3.60%	-9.10%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-16.21%	—	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-0.23%	-0.95%	+0.72%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-2.31%	-0.92%	-1.39%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	1.28%	0.34%	+0.94%

Volatility

NOCT vs. CAOS - Volatility Comparison

Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - October (NOCT) has a higher volatility of 2.01% compared to Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS) at 0.54%. This indicates that NOCT's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than CAOS based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	NOCT	CAOS	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	2.01%	0.54%	+1.47%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	6.24%	1.11%	+5.13%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	7.82%	1.56%	+6.26%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	11.00%	4.19%	+6.81%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	11.15%	4.19%	+6.96%

NOCT vs. CAOS - Expense Ratio Comparison

NOCT has a 0.79% expense ratio, which is higher than CAOS's 0.63% expense ratio.

Dividends

NOCT vs. CAOS - Dividend Comparison

Neither NOCT nor CAOS has paid dividends to shareholders.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
CAOS Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
NOCT Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - October	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.07%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both NOCT and CAOS in my portfolio?

NOCT and CAOS have a correlation of -0.37, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, NOCT or CAOS?

NOCT has higher volatility (2.01%) compared to CAOS (0.54%). In terms of maximum drawdown, NOCT dropped -16.21% vs CAOS's -3.89%.

Which ETF is better, NOCT or CAOS?

On 3-year performance, NOCT leads with 14.32% vs 3.63% for CAOS. On fees, CAOS is cheaper at 0.63% per year. On volatility, CAOS has been the lower-risk option at 0.54%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, NOCT or CAOS?

Over the 3-year period, NOCT has performed better with a 14.32% return vs 3.63%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, NOCT or CAOS?

CAOS is cheaper with a 0.63% expense ratio, compared with 0.79% for NOCT.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, NOCT or CAOS?

NOCT and CAOS have nearly identical dividend yields, around 0.00%.

What is the main difference between NOCT and CAOS?

NOCT is categorized as Defined Outcome, while CAOS is Options Trading. They also come from different issuers: Innovator and Alpha Architect. Their fees differ too: 0.79% for NOCT and 0.63% for CAOS.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

NOCT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.72 vs 1.27), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.