MRNA vs. SPY
MRNA (Moderna, Inc.) is a stock, while SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) is S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Over the past 5 years, MRNA returned -22.77%/yr vs 12.96%/yr for SPY. At a 0.31 correlation, their price movements are largely independent.
Performance
MRNA vs. SPY - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, MRNA achieves a 104.88% return, which is significantly higher than SPY's 8.10% return.
MRNA
- 1D
- -0.95%
- 1M
- 28.88%
- YTD
- 104.88%
- 6M
- 84.49%
- 1Y
- 125.45%
- 3Y*
- -20.11%
- 5Y*
- -22.77%
- 10Y*
- —
SPY
- 1D
- -0.05%
- 1M
- -1.41%
- YTD
- 8.10%
- 6M
- 6.77%
- 1Y
- 22.18%
- 3Y*
- 20.66%
- 5Y*
- 12.96%
- 10Y*
- 15.53%
MRNA vs. SPY - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MRNA Moderna, Inc. | 104.88% | -29.08% | -58.19% | -44.63% | -29.28% | 143.11% | 434.10% | 28.09% | -30.59% |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 8.10% | 17.72% | 24.89% | 26.18% | -18.18% | 28.73% | 18.33% | 31.22% | -6.84% |
Correlation
The correlation between MRNA and SPY is 0.36, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.36 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.36 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.37 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Dec 7, 2018 | 0.31 |
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Return for Risk
MRNA vs. SPY — Risk / Return Rank
MRNA
SPY
MRNA vs. SPY - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| MRNA | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.11 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.23 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.31 | 1.33 | -0.02 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 3.55 | 2.51 | +1.05 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 6.97 | 11.15 | -4.18 |
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Drawdowns
MRNA vs. SPY - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum MRNA drawdown since its inception was -95.38%, which is greater than SPY's maximum drawdown of -55.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for MRNA and SPY.
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Drawdown Indicators
| MRNA | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -95.38% | -55.19% | -40.19% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -35.51% | -8.88% | -26.63% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -86.58% | -18.76% | -67.82% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -95.38% | -24.50% | -70.88% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | — | -33.72% | — |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -87.53% | -3.22% | -84.31% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -57.17% | -9.03% | -48.14% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 18.07% | 1.99% | +16.08% |
Volatility
MRNA vs. SPY - Volatility Comparison
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) has a higher volatility of 21.75% compared to State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at 4.85%. This indicates that MRNA's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than SPY based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| MRNA | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 21.75% | 4.85% | +16.90% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 50.42% | 9.81% | +40.61% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 66.45% | 12.47% | +53.98% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 66.74% | 17.15% | +49.59% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 72.25% | 17.95% | +54.30% |
Dividends
MRNA vs. SPY - Dividend Comparison
MRNA has not paid dividends to shareholders, while SPY's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 1.03%.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MRNA Moderna, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 1.03% | 1.07% | 1.21% | 1.40% | 1.65% | 1.20% | 1.52% | 1.75% | 2.04% | 1.80% | 2.03% | 2.06% |
Frequently Asked Questions
MRNA and SPY have a correlation of 0.36, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
MRNA has higher volatility (21.75%) compared to SPY (4.85%). In terms of maximum drawdown, MRNA dropped -95.38% vs SPY's -55.19%.
MRNA currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.90 vs 1.79), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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