MRNA vs. NVAX

Last updated Jun 4, 2026

MRNA (Moderna, Inc.) and NVAX (Novavax, Inc.) are both stocks. Both operate in the Biotechnology industry within the Healthcare sector. Over the past 5 years, MRNA returned -24.95%/yr vs -43.27%/yr for NVAX. At a 0.47 correlation, their price movements are largely independent.

Performance

MRNA vs. NVAX - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) and Novavax, Inc. (NVAX). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, MRNA achieves a 66.36% return, which is significantly higher than NVAX's 51.93% return.

MRNA

• 1D: 7.49%
• 1M: 3.72%
• YTD: 66.36%
• 6M: 94.84%
• 1Y: 76.41%
• 3Y*: -27.83%
• 5Y*: -24.95%
• 10Y*: —

NVAX

• 1D: -2.85%
• 1M: 26.99%
• YTD: 51.93%
• 6M: 54.70%
• 1Y: 44.41%
• 3Y*: 10.24%
• 5Y*: -43.27%
• 10Y*: -21.99%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

MRNA vs. NVAX - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
MRNA Moderna, Inc.	66.36%	-29.08%	-58.19%	-44.63%	-29.28%	143.11%	434.10%	28.09%	-17.90%
NVAX Novavax, Inc.	51.93%	-16.42%	67.50%	-53.31%	-92.81%	28.30%	2,701.76%	-89.18%	-10.24%

Correlation

The correlation between MRNA and NVAX is 0.57, which is moderate. They share some common price drivers but move independently often enough to provide real diversification benefit when combined.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.57
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.52
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.56
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Dec 10, 2018	0.47

The correlation between MRNA and NVAX has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.47 to 0.57 - a consistent structural relationship.

Fundamentals

Market Cap MRNA : $19.38B NVAX : $1.67B
EPS MRNA : -$8.16 NVAX : -$0.52
PS Ratio MRNA : 8.63 NVAX : 2.89
Total Revenue (TTM) MRNA : $2.23B NVAX : $596.34M
Gross Profit (TTM) MRNA : -$309.00M NVAX : $504.72M
EBITDA (TTM) MRNA : -$3.02B NVAX : -$57.01M

Return for Risk

MRNA vs. NVAX — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

MRNA

MRNA Risk / Return Rank: 74
MRNA Sharpe Ratio Rank: 75
MRNA Sortino Ratio Rank: 75
MRNA Omega Ratio Rank: 70
MRNA Calmar Ratio Rank: 75
MRNA Martin Ratio Rank: 72

NVAX

NVAX Risk / Return Rank: 61
NVAX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 61
NVAX Sortino Ratio Rank: 64
NVAX Omega Ratio Rank: 59
NVAX Calmar Ratio Rank: 62
NVAX Martin Ratio Rank: 60

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

MRNA vs. NVAX - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) and Novavax, Inc. (NVAX). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	MRNA	NVAX	Difference
Sharpe ratio Return per unit of total volatility	1.20	0.65	+0.55
Sortino ratio Return per unit of downside risk	2.06	1.50	+0.56
Omega ratio Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.23	1.17	+0.06
Calmar ratio Return relative to maximum drawdown	2.16	1.09	+1.08
Martin ratio Return relative to average drawdown	4.28	2.13	+2.16
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

MRNA vs. NVAX - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current MRNA Sharpe Ratio is 1.20, which is higher than the NVAX Sharpe Ratio of 0.65. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of MRNA and NVAX, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	MRNA	NVAX	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	1.20	0.65	+0.55
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	-0.38	-0.41	+0.03
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	—	-0.19	—
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	0.19	-0.07	+0.26

Drawdowns

MRNA vs. NVAX - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum MRNA drawdown since its inception was -95.38%, roughly equal to the maximum NVAX drawdown of -98.82%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for MRNA and NVAX.

Drawdown Indicators

	MRNA	NVAX	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-95.38%	-98.82%	+3.44%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-35.51%	-35.94%	+0.43%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-86.58%	-74.11%	-12.47%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-95.38%	-98.61%	+3.23%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-98.82%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-89.87%	-96.81%	+6.94%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-56.64%	-70.70%	+14.06%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	17.89%	18.37%	-0.48%

Volatility

MRNA vs. NVAX - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is 18.09%, while Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) has a volatility of 26.80%. This indicates that MRNA experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than NVAX based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	MRNA	NVAX	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	18.09%	26.80%	-8.71%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	47.95%	50.99%	-3.04%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	63.94%	68.26%	-4.32%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	66.40%	106.06%	-39.66%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	71.92%	115.49%	-43.57%

Dividends

MRNA vs. NVAX - Dividend Comparison

Neither MRNA nor NVAX has paid dividends to shareholders.

Tickers have no history of dividend payments

Financials

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both MRNA and NVAX in my portfolio?

MRNA and NVAX have a correlation of 0.57, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, MRNA or NVAX?

NVAX has higher volatility (26.80%) compared to MRNA (18.09%). In terms of maximum drawdown, MRNA dropped -95.38% vs NVAX's -98.82%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

MRNA currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.20 vs 0.65), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.