MPC vs. SPY

Last updated Aug 6, 2026

MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corporation) is a stock, while SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) is S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Over the past 10 years, MPC returned 25.42%/yr vs 15.27%/yr for SPY. Their 0.44 correlation means their historical movements had little consistent relationship.

Performance

MPC vs. SPY - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, MPC achieves a 84.70% return, which is significantly higher than SPY's 13.49% return. Over the past 10 years, MPC has outperformed SPY with an annualized return of 25.42%, while SPY has yielded a comparatively lower 15.27% annualized return.

MPC

• 1D: -4.75%
• 1M: 10.69%
• 6M: 53.32%
• YTD: 84.70%
• 1Y: 79.72%
• 3Y*: 31.91%
• 5Y*: 42.32%
• 10Y*: 25.42%
• ALL TIME*: 22.76%

SPY

• 1D: -0.20%
• 1M: 2.46%
• 6M: 12.78%
• YTD: 13.49%
• 1Y: 23.94%
• 3Y*: 21.38%
• 5Y*: 13.23%
• 10Y*: 15.27%
• ALL TIME*: 10.88%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Liquidity Comparison

Position	Avg. Volume Value (2W)	Avg. Volume Value (1M)	Avg. Volume Value (3M)
MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation	$652.11M	$637.87M	$630.23M
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF	$41.99B	$36.81B	$39.78B

MPC vs. SPY - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation	84.70%	19.17%	-4.06%	30.46%	86.62%	61.00%	-27.38%	6.05%	-8.23%	34.78%
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF	13.49%	17.72%	24.89%	26.18%	-18.18%	28.73%	18.33%	31.22%	-4.57%	21.71%

Correlation

The correlation between MPC and SPY is -0.05, meaning there was essentially no consistent relationship between their historical price movements. Each responded to its own set of market drivers.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most.	-0.05
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history.	0.17
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period.	0.27
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions.	0.40
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jul 1, 2011	0.44

The correlation between MPC and SPY shifts across timeframes, from -0.05 (1 year) to 0.44 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.

Return for Risk

MPC vs. SPY — Risk / Return Rank

Compare historical risk-adjusted metric ranks over the past 12 months.

MPC

MPC Risk / Return Rank: 92
MPC Sharpe Ratio Rank: 94
MPC Sortino Ratio Rank: 91
MPC Omega Ratio Rank: 91
MPC Calmar Ratio Rank: 93
MPC Martin Ratio Rank: 93

SPY

SPY Risk / Return Rank: 71
SPY Sharpe Ratio Rank: 72
SPY Sortino Ratio Rank: 69
SPY Omega Ratio Rank: 70
SPY Calmar Ratio Rank: 68
SPY Martin Ratio Rank: 79

The rank (0–100) uses a weighted average of the Sharpe, Sortino, Omega, Calmar, and Martin percentile ranks for the trailing 12 months. Higher means stronger historical risk-adjusted performance within the peer group.

MPC vs. SPY - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	MPC	SPY	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	2.42	1.87	+0.55
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	2.95	2.57	+0.38
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.39	1.33	+0.05
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	4.37	2.71	+1.67
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	12.31	11.55	+0.77

MPC vs. SPY - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current MPC Sharpe Ratio is 2.42, which is comparable to the SPY Sharpe Ratio of 1.87. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of MPC and SPY, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

MPC vs. SPY - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum MPC drawdown since its inception was -79.67%, which is greater than SPY's maximum drawdown of -55.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for MPC and SPY.

Drawdown Indicators

	MPC	SPY	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-79.67%	-55.19%	-24.48%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-18.33%	-8.88%	-9.45%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-44.75%	-18.76%	-25.99%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-44.75%	-24.50%	-20.25%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-79.67%	-33.72%	-45.95%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-6.88%	-0.20%	-6.68%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-17.19%	-9.01%	-8.18%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	6.55%	2.08%	+4.47%

Volatility

MPC vs. SPY - Volatility Comparison

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) has a higher volatility of 10.81% compared to State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at 4.10%. This indicates that MPC's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than SPY based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	MPC	SPY	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	10.81%	4.10%	+6.71%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	26.26%	10.32%	+15.94%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	33.07%	12.88%	+20.19%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	33.07%	17.21%	+15.86%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	39.97%	17.96%	+22.01%

Dividends

MPC vs. SPY - Dividend Comparison

MPC's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 1.31%, more than SPY's 0.98% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation	1.31%	2.29%	2.43%	2.07%	2.14%	3.63%	5.61%	3.52%	3.12%	2.30%	2.70%	2.20%
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF	0.98%	1.07%	1.21%	1.40%	1.65%	1.20%	1.52%	1.75%	2.04%	1.80%	2.03%	2.06%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both MPC and SPY in my portfolio?

MPC and SPY have a correlation of -0.05, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, MPC or SPY?

MPC has higher volatility (10.81%) compared to SPY (4.10%). In terms of maximum drawdown, MPC dropped -79.67% vs SPY's -55.19%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

MPC currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.42 vs 1.87), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.