HBTC vs. SMST

Last updated Jul 14, 2026

HBTC (Fortuna Hedged Bitcoin ETF) and SMST (Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - HBTC is a Blockchain fund actively managed by Fortuna Funds, while SMST is a Inverse Equities fund actively managed by Defiance. Both are actively managed. Over the past year, HBTC returned -37.51% vs 240.03% for SMST. At a correlation of -0.76, they often move in opposite directions. HBTC charges 1.75%/yr vs 1.29%/yr for SMST.

Performance

HBTC vs. SMST - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Fortuna Hedged Bitcoin ETF (HBTC) and Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF (SMST). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, HBTC achieves a -22.42% return, which is significantly higher than SMST's -27.96% return.

HBTC

• 1D: -2.27%
• 1M: 1.19%
• 6M: -24.82%
• YTD: -22.42%
• 1Y: -37.51%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

SMST

• 1D: 5.26%
• 1M: 44.38%
• 6M: -15.07%
• YTD: -27.96%
• 1Y: 240.03%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

HBTC vs. SMST - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025
HBTC Fortuna Hedged Bitcoin ETF	-22.42%	1.18%
SMST Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF	-27.96%	-0.64%

Correlation

The correlation between HBTC and SMST is -0.75, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.75
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Mar 19, 2025	-0.76

The correlation between HBTC and SMST has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.76 to -0.75 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

HBTC vs. SMST — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

HBTC

HBTC Risk / Return Rank: 1
HBTC Sharpe Ratio Rank: 0
HBTC Sortino Ratio Rank: 0
HBTC Omega Ratio Rank: 1
HBTC Calmar Ratio Rank: 1
HBTC Martin Ratio Rank: 0

SMST

SMST Risk / Return Rank: 60
SMST Sharpe Ratio Rank: 62
SMST Sortino Ratio Rank: 63
SMST Omega Ratio Rank: 63
SMST Calmar Ratio Rank: 71
SMST Martin Ratio Rank: 43

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

HBTC vs. SMST - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Fortuna Hedged Bitcoin ETF (HBTC) and Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF (SMST). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	HBTC	SMST	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-1.35	1.62	-2.97
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-2.09	2.33	-4.42
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.78	1.30	-0.53
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.93	2.83	-3.76
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.59	5.47	-7.06

HBTC vs. SMST - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current HBTC Sharpe Ratio is -1.35, which is lower than the SMST Sharpe Ratio of 1.62. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of HBTC and SMST, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

HBTC vs. SMST - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum HBTC drawdown since its inception was -40.45%, smaller than the maximum SMST drawdown of -99.25%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for HBTC and SMST.

Drawdown Indicators

	HBTC	SMST	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-40.45%	-99.25%	+58.80%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-40.45%	-85.39%	+44.94%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-38.73%	-97.17%	+58.44%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-16.29%	-90.89%	+74.60%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	23.66%	44.09%	-20.43%

Volatility

HBTC vs. SMST - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Fortuna Hedged Bitcoin ETF (HBTC) is 5.39%, while Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF (SMST) has a volatility of 56.59%. This indicates that HBTC experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than SMST based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	HBTC	SMST	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	5.39%	56.59%	-51.20%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	19.08%	135.88%	-116.80%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	27.95%	149.23%	-121.28%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	28.83%	167.74%	-138.91%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	28.83%	167.74%	-138.91%

HBTC vs. SMST - Expense Ratio Comparison

HBTC has a 1.75% expense ratio, which is higher than SMST's 1.29% expense ratio.

Dividends

HBTC vs. SMST - Dividend Comparison

HBTC's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 14.12%, while SMST has not paid dividends to shareholders.

Position	TTM	2025
HBTC Fortuna Hedged Bitcoin ETF	14.12%	10.96%
SMST Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF	0.00%	0.00%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both HBTC and SMST in my portfolio?

HBTC and SMST have a correlation of -0.75, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, HBTC or SMST?

SMST has higher volatility (56.59%) compared to HBTC (5.39%). In terms of maximum drawdown, HBTC dropped -40.45% vs SMST's -99.25%.

Which ETF is better, HBTC or SMST?

On 1-year performance, SMST leads with 240.03% vs -37.51% for HBTC. On fees, SMST is cheaper at 1.29% per year. On volatility, HBTC has been the lower-risk option at 5.39%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, HBTC or SMST?

Over the 1-year period, SMST has performed better with a 240.03% return vs -37.51%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, HBTC or SMST?

SMST is cheaper with a 1.29% expense ratio, compared with 1.75% for HBTC.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, HBTC or SMST?

HBTC has the higher dividend yield at 14.12%, compared with 0.00% for SMST.

What is the main difference between HBTC and SMST?

HBTC is categorized as Blockchain, while SMST is Inverse Equities. They also come from different issuers: Fortuna Funds and Defiance. Their fees differ too: 1.75% for HBTC and 1.29% for SMST.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

SMST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.62 vs -1.35), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.