^XAU vs. UGL
^XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) is an index, while UGL (ProShares Ultra Gold) is Leveraged Commodities fund tracking the Bloomberg Gold Subindex (200%). Over the past 10 years, ^XAU returned 14.99%/yr vs 18.62%/yr for UGL. A 0.74 correlation means they provide meaningful diversification when combined.
Performance
^XAU vs. UGL - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, ^XAU achieves a 6.15% return, which is significantly higher than UGL's -0.56% return. Over the past 10 years, ^XAU has underperformed UGL with an annualized return of 14.99%, while UGL has yielded a comparatively higher 18.62% annualized return.
^XAU
- 1D
- 1.46%
- 1M
- 4.21%
- YTD
- 6.15%
- 6M
- 13.80%
- 1Y
- 77.23%
- 3Y*
- 42.60%
- 5Y*
- 17.52%
- 10Y*
- 14.99%
UGL
- 1D
- 1.64%
- 1M
- -4.02%
- YTD
- -0.56%
- 6M
- 3.35%
- 1Y
- 52.19%
- 3Y*
- 53.37%
- 5Y*
- 27.42%
- 10Y*
- 18.62%
^XAU vs. UGL - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^XAU Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index | 6.15% | 149.51% | 9.14% | 4.00% | -8.75% | -8.14% | 34.86% | 51.32% | -17.13% | 8.13% |
UGL ProShares Ultra Gold | -0.56% | 137.57% | 46.36% | 15.56% | -7.59% | -12.30% | 39.04% | 31.11% | -8.02% | 22.50% |
Correlation
The correlation between ^XAU and UGL is 0.78, which is moderate. They share some common price drivers but move independently often enough to provide real diversification benefit when combined.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.78 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.77 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.76 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.75 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Dec 4, 2008 | 0.74 |
The correlation between ^XAU and UGL has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.74 to 0.78 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
^XAU vs. UGL — Risk / Return Rank
^XAU
UGL
^XAU vs. UGL - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (^XAU) and ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| ^XAU | UGL | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.75 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.65 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.29 | 1.22 | +0.08 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.57 | 1.40 | +1.17 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 6.64 | 3.17 | +3.47 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
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Sharpe Ratios by Period
| ^XAU | UGL | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe Ratio (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 1.74 | 0.99 | +0.75 |
Sharpe Ratio (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.49 | 0.76 | -0.27 |
Sharpe Ratio (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.41 | 0.58 | -0.16 |
Sharpe Ratio (All Time)Calculated using the full available price history | 0.08 | 0.39 | -0.32 |
Drawdowns
^XAU vs. UGL - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum ^XAU drawdown since its inception was -83.04%, which is greater than UGL's maximum drawdown of -75.93%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for ^XAU and UGL.
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Drawdown Indicators
| ^XAU | UGL | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -83.04% | -75.93% | -7.11% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -30.21% | -37.56% | +7.35% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -30.21% | -37.56% | +7.35% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -45.52% | -40.23% | -5.29% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -45.52% | -46.23% | +0.71% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -22.75% | -35.52% | +12.77% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -39.76% | -43.63% | +3.87% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.66% | 16.51% | -4.85% |
Volatility
^XAU vs. UGL - Volatility Comparison
Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (^XAU) has a higher volatility of 15.15% compared to ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) at 11.02%. This indicates that ^XAU's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than UGL based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| ^XAU | UGL | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 15.15% | 11.02% | +4.13% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 36.41% | 46.82% | -10.41% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 44.51% | 52.89% | -8.38% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 36.17% | 36.18% | -0.01% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 36.28% | 32.33% | +3.95% |
Frequently Asked Questions
^XAU and UGL have a correlation of 0.78, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
^XAU has higher volatility (15.15%) compared to UGL (11.02%). In terms of maximum drawdown, ^XAU dropped -83.04% vs UGL's -75.93%.
^XAU currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.74 vs 0.99), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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