Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio
The Ultimate Portfolio is a lazy portfolio by Paul Merriman, a financial educator, founder of Merriman, LLC. The portfolio consists of 10 asset classes, 10% each with a tilt to small-cap and value stocks.
Asset Allocation
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced every 3 months.
The earliest data available for this chart is Sep 9, 2010, corresponding to the inception date of VIOV
Returns By Period
As of Apr 28, 2025, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio returned -3.21% Year-To-Date and 6.97% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| YTD | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 | -6.06% | -1.00% | -4.87% | 8.34% | 14.11% | 10.27% |
| Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio | -3.21% | -1.74% | -3.97% | 6.43% | 11.91% | 6.97% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||
VTV Vanguard Value ETF | -2.12% | -3.56% | -4.01% | 6.78% | 13.65% | 9.69% |
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | -15.58% | -6.05% | -12.93% | -4.29% | 12.27% | 6.35% |
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF | -5.64% | -0.72% | -3.96% | 10.02% | 15.76% | 12.17% |
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF | 8.08% | 1.38% | 3.83% | 10.71% | 10.60% | 5.05% |
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF | -13.02% | -3.93% | -11.58% | -3.52% | 11.64% | 7.25% |
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | 1.99% | -0.97% | -2.21% | 9.44% | 7.90% | 3.22% |
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF | 15.34% | 1.77% | 11.44% | 17.70% | 14.72% | 4.90% |
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend | 9.09% | 2.36% | 7.32% | 11.66% | 10.28% | 4.66% |
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF | 4.02% | 2.21% | 0.90% | 7.04% | 9.65% | 4.18% |
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF | -1.32% | -3.01% | -7.30% | 13.04% | 6.81% | 5.09% |
Monthly Returns
The table below presents the monthly returns of Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio, with color gradation from worst to best to easily spot seasonal factors. Returns are adjusted for dividends.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.70% | -0.89% | -2.98% | -1.99% | -3.21% | ||||||||
| 2024 | -2.04% | 3.03% | 3.41% | -4.18% | 4.33% | -0.24% | 5.69% | 1.53% | 2.01% | -2.64% | 5.28% | -4.95% | 11.00% |
| 2023 | 8.16% | -2.91% | -1.10% | 0.37% | -2.92% | 6.25% | 4.27% | -3.44% | -4.60% | -3.94% | 8.60% | 7.77% | 16.10% |
| 2022 | -4.48% | -1.32% | 1.59% | -6.55% | 0.79% | -8.21% | 6.84% | -4.11% | -9.93% | 8.09% | 7.08% | -4.32% | -15.40% |
| 2021 | 1.51% | 5.01% | 3.96% | 3.48% | 2.27% | 0.29% | -0.32% | 2.10% | -3.50% | 4.15% | -3.01% | 5.11% | 22.64% |
| 2020 | -3.02% | -8.45% | -18.71% | 10.57% | 4.03% | 2.71% | 4.06% | 4.73% | -3.01% | -0.93% | 13.45% | 5.57% | 6.95% |
| 2019 | 9.08% | 2.60% | -0.06% | 2.98% | -6.24% | 5.80% | 0.03% | -2.56% | 3.21% | 2.52% | 2.10% | 3.36% | 24.35% |
| 2018 | 3.55% | -4.61% | -0.05% | 0.60% | 1.67% | -0.27% | 2.72% | 1.08% | -1.05% | -7.81% | 1.98% | -8.54% | -11.03% |
| 2017 | 1.57% | 2.34% | 0.49% | 1.30% | 0.36% | 1.74% | 2.22% | -0.49% | 3.52% | 1.20% | 2.21% | 1.20% | 19.09% |
| 2016 | -5.61% | -0.16% | 8.47% | 1.13% | 0.66% | 0.38% | 4.57% | 0.19% | 0.77% | -2.73% | 3.69% | 2.65% | 14.16% |
| 2015 | -1.29% | 4.80% | -0.36% | 1.12% | 0.30% | -1.91% | -0.09% | -6.11% | -2.63% | 6.35% | 0.40% | -2.00% | -1.99% |
| 2014 | -3.34% | 5.08% | 0.93% | 0.21% | 1.54% | 2.30% | -2.25% | 2.64% | -4.72% | 3.10% | 0.41% | -0.52% | 5.05% |
Expense Ratio
Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.16%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Risk-Adjusted Performance Rank
The current rank of Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio is 24, meaning it’s performing worse than 76% of other portfolios on our website when it comes to balancing risk and reward. Below is a breakdown of how it compares using common performance measures.
Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VTV Vanguard Value ETF | 0.43 | 0.70 | 1.10 | 0.46 | 1.79 |
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | -0.22 | -0.15 | 0.98 | -0.18 | -0.59 |
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF | 0.54 | 0.87 | 1.13 | 0.56 | 2.29 |
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF | 0.66 | 1.05 | 1.14 | 0.82 | 2.57 |
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF | -0.16 | -0.06 | 0.99 | -0.13 | -0.42 |
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | 0.62 | 0.99 | 1.13 | 0.59 | 1.96 |
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF | 1.05 | 1.51 | 1.21 | 1.28 | 4.28 |
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend | 0.72 | 1.08 | 1.15 | 0.94 | 2.50 |
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF | 0.47 | 0.76 | 1.10 | 0.43 | 1.59 |
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF | 0.70 | 1.05 | 1.14 | 0.51 | 2.38 |
Dividends
Dividend yield
Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio provided a 2.93% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.93% | 2.98% | 3.01% | 3.01% | 2.44% | 2.12% | 2.82% | 2.98% | 2.50% | 2.63% | 2.62% | 2.75% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
VTV Vanguard Value ETF | 2.38% | 2.31% | 2.46% | 2.52% | 2.15% | 2.56% | 2.50% | 2.73% | 2.29% | 2.44% | 2.60% | 2.22% |
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | 2.22% | 1.78% | 2.18% | 1.81% | 1.59% | 1.42% | 1.60% | 1.76% | 1.43% | 1.17% | 1.32% | 1.27% |
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF | 1.34% | 1.24% | 1.41% | 1.66% | 1.19% | 1.46% | 1.81% | 2.09% | 1.75% | 1.98% | 1.96% | 1.77% |
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF | 2.97% | 3.24% | 3.32% | 3.12% | 3.07% | 2.00% | 3.10% | 3.27% | 2.66% | 2.96% | 2.95% | 3.52% |
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF | 1.71% | 1.48% | 1.47% | 1.51% | 1.16% | 1.09% | 1.37% | 1.32% | 1.11% | 0.95% | 1.26% | 1.06% |
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | 3.16% | 3.20% | 3.52% | 4.11% | 2.63% | 1.91% | 3.24% | 2.88% | 2.30% | 2.52% | 3.26% | 2.86% |
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF | 4.04% | 4.67% | 4.36% | 4.17% | 4.07% | 2.42% | 4.62% | 4.56% | 3.56% | 3.27% | 3.59% | 4.87% |
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend | 3.95% | 4.56% | 4.29% | 4.96% | 3.29% | 2.50% | 3.37% | 3.66% | 2.79% | 3.29% | 2.72% | 3.61% |
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF | 3.31% | 3.44% | 3.14% | 2.30% | 2.74% | 1.90% | 3.25% | 2.80% | 2.83% | 2.93% | 2.66% | 2.67% |
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF | 4.18% | 3.85% | 3.95% | 3.91% | 2.56% | 3.93% | 3.39% | 4.74% | 4.23% | 4.82% | 3.92% | 3.60% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio was 38.57%, occurring on Mar 23, 2020. Recovery took 172 trading sessions.
The current Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio drawdown is 8.01%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -38.57% | Jan 21, 2020 | 44 | Mar 23, 2020 | 172 | Nov 24, 2020 | 216 |
| -24.61% | May 2, 2011 | 108 | Oct 3, 2011 | 304 | Dec 18, 2012 | 412 |
| -24.38% | Jan 5, 2022 | 186 | Sep 30, 2022 | 368 | Mar 20, 2024 | 554 |
| -19.62% | Jan 29, 2018 | 229 | Dec 24, 2018 | 216 | Nov 1, 2019 | 445 |
| -18.4% | May 19, 2015 | 186 | Feb 11, 2016 | 117 | Jul 29, 2016 | 303 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The current Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio volatility is 11.92%, representing the average percentage change in the investments's value, either up or down over the past month. The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 10 assets, with an effective number of assets of 10.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests that the portfolio's investments are spread across a variety of assets, indicating a well-diversified allocation. However, true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets.
Asset Correlations Table
| ^GSPC | VNQ | VWO | VIOV | VIOO | DLS | EFV | VTV | VSS | VV | VEU | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.90 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| VNQ | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.47 | 0.58 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.55 | 0.63 | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| VWO | 0.71 | 0.47 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.66 | 0.85 | 0.71 | 0.88 | 0.78 |
| VIOV | 0.74 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.87 |
| VIOO | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0.68 | 0.70 | 0.82 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.71 | 0.90 |
| DLS | 0.77 | 0.55 | 0.77 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.75 | 0.94 | 0.77 | 0.93 | 0.87 |
| EFV | 0.77 | 0.54 | 0.77 | 0.68 | 0.70 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.77 | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| VTV | 0.90 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.80 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.76 | 0.89 | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| VSS | 0.79 | 0.55 | 0.85 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.94 | 0.90 | 0.76 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 0.95 | 0.89 |
| VV | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.89 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| VEU | 0.82 | 0.56 | 0.88 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 0.79 | 0.95 | 0.82 | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| Portfolio | 0.91 | 0.71 | 0.78 | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.88 | 0.92 | 0.89 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 1.00 |