Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio
The Ultimate Portfolio is a lazy portfolio by Paul Merriman, a financial educator, founder of Merriman, LLC. The portfolio consists of 10 asset classes, 10% each with a tilt to small-cap and value stocks.
Asset Allocation
Performance
Performance Chart
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The earliest data available for this chart is Sep 9, 2010, corresponding to the inception date of VIOV
Returns By Period
As of May 23, 2025, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio returned 4.26% Year-To-Date and 6.80% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| YTD | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 | -1.34% | 7.94% | -2.79% | 10.16% | 14.45% | 10.68% |
| Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio | 4.35% | 5.93% | 1.02% | 10.00% | 12.36% | 6.95% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||
VTV Vanguard Value ETF | 0.43% | 3.48% | -5.04% | 7.87% | 14.56% | 9.85% |
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | -12.83% | 5.28% | -17.81% | -2.72% | 12.89% | 6.64% |
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF | -0.57% | 8.41% | -1.92% | 12.19% | 16.06% | 12.59% |
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF | 13.74% | 6.67% | 12.13% | 12.91% | 11.50% | 5.60% |
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF | -9.44% | 6.23% | -15.75% | -1.64% | 12.04% | 7.55% |
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | 8.65% | 7.51% | 7.91% | 11.98% | 9.07% | 4.00% |
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF | 20.75% | 6.17% | 19.34% | 19.89% | 15.83% | 5.35% |
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend | 14.90% | 6.90% | 14.57% | 14.83% | 10.85% | 5.05% |
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF | 10.95% | 8.15% | 9.64% | 10.72% | 10.30% | 4.80% |
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF | -1.23% | 0.29% | -7.69% | 10.88% | 7.46% | 5.07% |
Monthly Returns
The table below presents the monthly returns of Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio, with color gradation from worst to best to easily spot seasonal factors. Returns are adjusted for dividends.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.49% | 0.07% | -1.53% | -0.23% | 3.56% | 4.35% | |||||||
| 2024 | -2.30% | 2.69% | 3.33% | -3.53% | 4.22% | -0.52% | 5.33% | 1.70% | 2.42% | -3.24% | 3.64% | -4.42% | 9.04% |
| 2023 | 8.38% | -3.28% | -0.51% | 0.70% | -3.34% | 5.76% | 4.32% | -3.69% | -4.19% | -3.92% | 8.51% | 7.28% | 15.59% |
| 2022 | -3.68% | -1.75% | 0.98% | -6.30% | 0.88% | -8.06% | 5.76% | -4.06% | -10.02% | 6.35% | 8.67% | -3.47% | -15.44% |
| 2021 | 1.24% | 4.61% | 3.56% | 3.40% | 2.38% | 0.11% | -0.45% | 1.97% | -3.48% | 3.65% | -3.47% | 4.93% | 19.54% |
| 2020 | -3.29% | -8.06% | -18.63% | 9.91% | 4.16% | 3.11% | 3.97% | 4.59% | -2.76% | -1.07% | 13.34% | 5.66% | 7.00% |
| 2019 | 8.86% | 2.25% | 0.23% | 2.80% | -6.02% | 5.57% | -0.47% | -2.55% | 3.13% | 2.81% | 1.81% | 3.75% | 23.59% |
| 2018 | 3.90% | -4.77% | -0.08% | 0.47% | 0.91% | -0.62% | 2.66% | 0.15% | -0.83% | -7.71% | 2.07% | -7.63% | -11.63% |
| 2017 | 2.25% | 2.19% | 1.00% | 1.49% | 0.74% | 1.54% | 2.56% | -0.15% | 3.00% | 1.26% | 1.85% | 1.47% | 20.95% |
| 2016 | -5.69% | -0.40% | 8.63% | 1.31% | 0.29% | 0.18% | 4.62% | 0.31% | 1.03% | -2.38% | 2.38% | 2.45% | 12.78% |
| 2015 | -0.98% | 4.94% | -0.58% | 1.90% | 0.03% | -2.10% | -0.32% | -6.37% | -2.67% | 6.23% | 0.08% | -2.00% | -2.42% |
| 2014 | -3.46% | 5.11% | 0.99% | 0.44% | 1.64% | 2.22% | -2.02% | 2.50% | -4.88% | 2.75% | 0.18% | -0.91% | 4.21% |
Expense Ratio
Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.16%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Risk-Adjusted Performance Rank
The current rank of Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio is 33, indicating average performance compared to other portfolios on our website. Here’s a breakdown of how it compares using common performance measures.
Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VTV Vanguard Value ETF | 0.50 | 0.65 | 1.09 | 0.42 | 1.51 |
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | -0.11 | -0.13 | 0.98 | -0.18 | -0.49 |
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF | 0.61 | 0.90 | 1.13 | 0.58 | 2.20 |
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF | 0.77 | 1.07 | 1.14 | 0.84 | 2.63 |
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF | -0.07 | -0.04 | 0.99 | -0.13 | -0.35 |
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | 0.65 | 0.95 | 1.12 | 0.56 | 1.85 |
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF | 1.20 | 1.52 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 4.31 |
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend | 0.90 | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.01 | 2.69 |
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF | 0.65 | 0.85 | 1.11 | 0.50 | 1.82 |
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF | 0.60 | 0.68 | 1.09 | 0.31 | 1.30 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio provided a 2.81% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.81% | 2.98% | 3.01% | 3.01% | 2.44% | 2.12% | 2.82% | 2.98% | 2.50% | 2.63% | 2.62% | 2.75% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
VTV Vanguard Value ETF | 2.32% | 2.31% | 2.46% | 2.52% | 2.15% | 2.56% | 2.50% | 2.73% | 2.29% | 2.44% | 2.60% | 2.22% |
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | 2.15% | 1.78% | 2.18% | 1.81% | 1.59% | 1.42% | 1.60% | 1.76% | 1.43% | 1.17% | 1.32% | 1.27% |
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF | 1.27% | 1.24% | 1.41% | 1.66% | 1.19% | 1.46% | 1.81% | 2.09% | 1.75% | 1.98% | 1.96% | 1.77% |
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF | 2.82% | 3.24% | 3.32% | 3.12% | 3.07% | 2.00% | 3.10% | 3.27% | 2.66% | 2.96% | 2.95% | 3.52% |
VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF | 1.64% | 1.48% | 1.47% | 1.51% | 1.16% | 1.09% | 1.37% | 1.32% | 1.11% | 0.95% | 1.26% | 1.06% |
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | 2.96% | 3.20% | 3.52% | 4.11% | 2.63% | 1.91% | 3.24% | 2.88% | 2.30% | 2.52% | 3.26% | 2.86% |
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF | 3.86% | 4.66% | 4.36% | 4.17% | 4.07% | 2.42% | 4.62% | 4.56% | 3.56% | 3.28% | 3.59% | 4.87% |
DLS WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend | 3.75% | 4.56% | 4.29% | 4.96% | 3.29% | 2.50% | 3.37% | 3.66% | 2.79% | 3.29% | 2.72% | 3.61% |
VSS Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF | 3.10% | 3.44% | 3.14% | 2.30% | 2.74% | 1.90% | 3.25% | 2.80% | 2.83% | 2.93% | 2.66% | 2.67% |
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF | 4.17% | 3.85% | 3.95% | 3.91% | 2.56% | 3.93% | 3.39% | 4.74% | 4.23% | 4.82% | 3.92% | 3.60% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio was 38.24%, occurring on Mar 23, 2020. Recovery took 171 trading sessions.
The current Paul Merriman Ultimate Portfolio drawdown is 1.59%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -38.24% | Jan 21, 2020 | 44 | Mar 23, 2020 | 171 | Nov 23, 2020 | 215 |
| -25.31% | Nov 9, 2021 | 233 | Oct 12, 2022 | 365 | Mar 27, 2024 | 598 |
| -24.64% | May 2, 2011 | 108 | Oct 3, 2011 | 304 | Dec 18, 2012 | 412 |
| -20.07% | Jan 29, 2018 | 229 | Dec 24, 2018 | 234 | Nov 27, 2019 | 463 |
| -19.7% | May 18, 2015 | 187 | Feb 11, 2016 | 142 | Sep 2, 2016 | 329 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 10 assets, with an effective number of assets of 10.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests that the portfolio's investments are spread across a variety of assets, indicating a well-diversified allocation. However, true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets.
Asset Correlations Table
| ^GSPC | VNQ | VWO | VIOV | VIOO | DLS | EFV | VTV | VV | VSS | VEU | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 0.82 | 0.90 |
| VNQ | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.47 | 0.58 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.63 | 0.55 | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| VWO | 0.71 | 0.47 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.66 | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| VIOV | 0.74 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| VIOO | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0.68 | 0.69 | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.87 |
| DLS | 0.76 | 0.55 | 0.77 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.94 | 0.93 | 0.90 |
| EFV | 0.77 | 0.54 | 0.76 | 0.68 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 0.76 | 0.89 | 0.95 | 0.90 |
| VTV | 0.90 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.79 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 0.76 | 0.79 | 0.90 |
| VV | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 0.82 | 0.90 |
| VSS | 0.79 | 0.55 | 0.85 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.76 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.92 |
| VEU | 0.82 | 0.56 | 0.88 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 0.79 | 0.82 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| Portfolio | 0.90 | 0.69 | 0.82 | 0.84 | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 1.00 |
AI Insight on Diversification
The portfolio is moderately diversified but exhibits several areas of high correlation that suggest some concentration risk. Most individual positions have strong positive correlations with each other, often above 0.7, indicating that many holdings tend to move in tandem. For example, VIOV and VIOO have a very high correlation of 0.93, and VSS and VEU are correlated at 0.95, which implies these pairs provide limited diversification benefits within the portfolio. Similarly, DLS, EFV, VSS, and VEU all show correlations above 0.9 with each other, indicating a cluster of very closely related international or global equity exposures.
On the other hand, the portfolio contains some positions with relatively lower correlations that help improve diversification. VNQ, a real estate investment trust (REIT) fund, has correlations mostly in the 0.5 to 0.6 range with other positions, which is notably lower than the average correlations among equities. This lower correlation suggests VNQ adds a diversification benefit by providing exposure to a different asset class with distinct risk-return drivers.
The portfolio’s correlation with individual positions ranges from about 0.69 (VNQ) up to 0.93 (VEU), showing that some positions have a stronger influence on the portfolio’s overall behavior. VEU, VSS, EFV, and DLS all have correlations around 0.9 with the portfolio, indicating these holdings dominate the portfolio’s risk and return profile. This dominance points to a portfolio that, while diversified across many funds, is heavily weighted or influenced by international and global equity exposures.
Overall, the portfolio is not highly concentrated in a single position but is concentrated in a cluster of highly correlated international equity funds, which reduces the effective diversification. The presence of VNQ as a lower-correlated asset class helps, but the portfolio would benefit from additional holdings with lower correlations to the core equity positions to improve diversification and reduce systemic risk.