Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | Government Bonds | 18.50% |
DBMF iM DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | Hedge Fund, Actively Managed | 5% |
FUND Sprott Focus Trust, Inc. | Financial Services | 2.50% |
HSGFX Hussman Strategic Growth Fund | Long-Short | 2.50% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | Gold, Precious Metals | 20% |
LTPZ PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS Index ETF | Inflation-Protected Bonds | 20% |
SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | Dividend | 20% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 9% |
TAIL Cambria Tail Risk ETF | Volatility Hedged Equity | 2.50% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in DESERT BUTTERFLY - all weather portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is May 8, 2019, corresponding to the inception date of DBMF
Returns By Period
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 2.91% | -5.09% | -4.63% | -2.39% | 16.33% | 16.69% | 10.18% | 12.16% |
Portfolio DESERT BUTTERFLY - all weather portfolio | 0.85% | -4.05% | 5.07% | 8.23% | 14.65% | 10.25% | 6.52% | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.08% | -0.47% | 0.27% | 1.34% | 3.61% | 3.88% | 1.70% | 1.65% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 3.80% | -11.01% | 8.61% | 21.15% | 49.53% | 33.12% | 21.78% | 14.08% |
LTPZ PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS Index ETF | -0.10% | -4.79% | -1.39% | -2.84% | -2.68% | -2.37% | -4.68% | 0.59% |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 0.00% | 0.29% | 0.85% | 1.84% | 3.99% | 4.70% | 3.27% | 2.12% |
SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | 0.66% | -2.61% | 12.79% | 14.49% | 13.97% | 12.05% | 8.44% | 12.31% |
FUND Sprott Focus Trust, Inc. | 1.38% | -3.56% | 11.44% | 18.95% | 37.81% | 13.40% | 11.61% | 12.70% |
DBMF iM DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | -0.20% | -3.82% | 7.87% | 15.44% | 26.29% | 9.90% | 8.63% | — |
HSGFX Hussman Strategic Growth Fund | -0.17% | 5.24% | 5.80% | 2.66% | 0.49% | -1.32% | -0.64% | -1.69% |
TAIL Cambria Tail Risk ETF | -2.50% | 0.62% | 2.59% | 0.83% | 2.58% | -4.32% | -6.79% | — |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since May 9, 2019, DESERT BUTTERFLY - all weather portfolio's average daily return is +0.03%, while the average monthly return is +0.68%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 8.5 years.
Historically, 65% of months were positive and 35% were negative. The best month was Apr 2020 with a return of +5.6%, while the worst month was Sep 2022 at -5.0%. The longest winning streak lasted 7 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.
On a daily basis, DESERT BUTTERFLY - all weather portfolio closed higher 56% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 24, 2020 with a return of +2.9%, while the worst single day was Mar 12, 2020 at -3.3%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.59% | 4.70% | -4.05% | 5.07% | |||||||||
| 2025 | 2.41% | 1.89% | 1.81% | -0.50% | -0.26% | 1.16% | -0.32% | 2.67% | 3.10% | 0.79% | 1.81% | 0.39% | 15.93% |
| 2024 | -0.19% | 0.09% | 3.32% | -1.20% | 1.57% | 0.22% | 3.23% | 1.14% | 2.02% | -0.20% | 0.56% | -2.88% | 7.75% |
| 2023 | 2.60% | -2.32% | 1.86% | 0.02% | -1.66% | 0.98% | 1.09% | -1.13% | -2.96% | -0.26% | 3.13% | 3.05% | 4.25% |
| 2022 | -2.09% | 1.25% | 0.40% | -2.25% | -0.99% | -3.12% | 1.82% | -2.07% | -5.04% | 2.42% | 4.12% | -0.70% | -6.42% |
| 2021 | -0.57% | -1.17% | 1.64% | 1.68% | 3.05% | -1.06% | 1.43% | 0.21% | -1.79% | 1.73% | 0.22% | 2.03% | 7.54% |
Benchmark Metrics
DESERT BUTTERFLY - all weather portfolio has an annualized alpha of 5.95%, beta of 0.18, and R² of 0.24 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since May 09, 2019.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (32.76%) than losses (22.79%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- Beta of 0.18 may look defensive, but with R² of 0.24 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index — low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R² of 0.24 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index — capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 5.95%
- Beta
- 0.18
- R²
- 0.24
- Upside Capture
- 32.76%
- Downside Capture
- 22.79%
Expense Ratio
DESERT BUTTERFLY - all weather portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.23%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
DESERT BUTTERFLY - all weather portfolio ranks 82 for risk / return — in the top 82% of portfolios on our site. This means strong returns relative to risk — exactly what professional investors look for. Well-suited for investors who want to maximize return per unit of risk.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.81 | 0.90 | +0.92 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.49 | 1.39 | +1.11 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.34 | 1.21 | +0.13 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.58 | 1.40 | +1.18 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 10.35 | 6.61 | +3.74 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 96 | 2.50 | 4.12 | 1.52 | 4.15 | 16.03 |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 87 | 1.80 | 2.24 | 1.33 | 2.69 | 9.97 |
LTPZ PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS Index ETF | 8 | -0.24 | -0.24 | 0.97 | -0.21 | -0.43 |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 100 | 19.52 | 254.04 | 180.28 | 365.54 | 4,104.04 |
SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | 52 | 0.89 | 1.35 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 3.99 |
FUND Sprott Focus Trust, Inc. | 89 | 1.96 | 2.56 | 1.39 | 2.77 | 12.39 |
DBMF iM DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | 95 | 2.19 | 2.98 | 1.46 | 4.25 | 18.51 |
HSGFX Hussman Strategic Growth Fund | 7 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 1.03 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
TAIL Cambria Tail Risk ETF | 16 | 0.15 | 0.38 | 1.06 | 0.16 | 0.19 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
DESERT BUTTERFLY - all weather portfolio provided a 3.25% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 3.25% | 3.39% | 3.41% | 3.09% | 3.34% | 2.05% | 1.31% | 2.22% | 2.05% | 1.39% | 1.27% | 0.99% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.75% | 3.81% | 3.92% | 2.99% | 1.30% | 0.26% | 0.94% | 2.12% | 1.72% | 0.98% | 0.71% | 0.54% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
LTPZ PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS Index ETF | 4.64% | 4.64% | 3.71% | 3.71% | 8.38% | 3.56% | 1.42% | 1.74% | 3.05% | 2.25% | 2.32% | 0.71% |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 4.01% | 4.13% | 5.03% | 4.92% | 1.35% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 2.05% | 1.66% | 0.68% | 0.07% | 0.00% |
SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | 3.44% | 3.82% | 3.64% | 3.49% | 3.39% | 2.78% | 3.16% | 2.98% | 3.06% | 2.63% | 2.89% | 2.97% |
FUND Sprott Focus Trust, Inc. | 6.08% | 6.65% | 8.27% | 6.22% | 6.72% | 8.79% | 7.93% | 6.30% | 11.92% | 6.59% | 5.76% | 7.59% |
DBMF iM DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | 5.30% | 5.91% | 5.75% | 2.91% | 7.72% | 10.38% | 0.86% | 9.35% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
HSGFX Hussman Strategic Growth Fund | 2.20% | 2.33% | 3.00% | 3.10% | 1.08% | 0.42% | 0.16% | 1.84% | 1.19% | 0.50% | 0.28% | 0.56% |
TAIL Cambria Tail Risk ETF | 3.20% | 2.88% | 3.48% | 3.74% | 1.50% | 0.49% | 0.36% | 1.58% | 1.52% | 0.91% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the DESERT BUTTERFLY - all weather portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the DESERT BUTTERFLY - all weather portfolio was 12.86%, occurring on Sep 30, 2022. Recovery took 406 trading sessions.
The current DESERT BUTTERFLY - all weather portfolio drawdown is 4.23%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -12.86% | Mar 9, 2022 | 143 | Sep 30, 2022 | 406 | May 14, 2024 | 549 |
| -11.24% | Mar 9, 2020 | 9 | Mar 19, 2020 | 25 | Apr 24, 2020 | 34 |
| -6.03% | Mar 3, 2026 | 16 | Mar 24, 2026 | — | — | — |
| -4.18% | Apr 2, 2025 | 5 | Apr 8, 2025 | 39 | Jun 4, 2025 | 44 |
| -3.54% | Aug 7, 2020 | 33 | Sep 23, 2020 | 38 | Nov 16, 2020 | 71 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 9 assets, with an effective number of assets of 6.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets indicates a moderate level of diversification, where some assets may have a more significant influence on overall performance.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | BIL | DBMF | IAU | SHY | LTPZ | HSGFX | SCHD | FUND | TAIL | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | -0.00 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.07 | -0.69 | 0.75 | 0.70 | -0.68 | 0.42 |
| BIL | -0.00 | 1.00 | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.11 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.00 | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| DBMF | 0.18 | -0.02 | 1.00 | 0.15 | -0.19 | -0.09 | -0.12 | 0.12 | 0.17 | -0.23 | 0.19 |
| IAU | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 0.31 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.72 |
| SHY | 0.01 | 0.11 | -0.19 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.51 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| LTPZ | 0.07 | -0.02 | -0.09 | 0.31 | 0.51 | 1.00 | -0.04 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.36 | 0.62 |
| HSGFX | -0.69 | -0.01 | -0.12 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -0.04 | 1.00 | -0.41 | -0.40 | 0.52 | -0.17 |
| SCHD | 0.75 | -0.00 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -0.41 | 1.00 | 0.72 | -0.54 | 0.50 |
| FUND | 0.70 | -0.03 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.07 | -0.40 | 0.72 | 1.00 | -0.49 | 0.50 |
| TAIL | -0.68 | 0.02 | -0.23 | 0.14 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.52 | -0.54 | -0.49 | 1.00 | 0.01 |
| Portfolio | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.19 | 0.72 | 0.44 | 0.62 | -0.17 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.01 | 1.00 |